I wouldn't be so sure that Boxer will win next year. Tom Campbell is considering dropping his gubernatorial bid, and switching over to the senate race because of the weaknesses of DeVore and Fiorina. If he is the nominee, and receives a lot of financial help from the Silicon Valley and Bay Area donors that have been limited in the amount of donations to Whitman and Poizner, he could beat her. She would be extremely weak against him. He left congress before Bush came in, so she could not tie him to any congressional scandals under his administration. He is pro gay marriage and abortion, but also has one of the most fiscally conservative records of any recent Republican representative. He has close ties in the Bay Area, and could like Whitman or Poizner offset the chance of a Boxer or Brown landslide in the area. As I see it, and I am a Californian btw, Meg Whitman wins the Governorship, and Tom Campbell will win the Senate seat if he switches over. Too many people are assuming that voters will entrust a democrat legislature with an openly democrat governor. campbell.org I also do see the dems losing the senate along with the house.
Here are the Republicans I believe have the best chances of winning in some competitive and potentially competitive democrat held senate races.
Arkansas-Gilbert Baker
California-Tom Campbell
Colorado-Jane Norton
Connecticut-Peter Schiff
Delaware-Mike Castle
Illinois-Mark Kirk
Massachusetts-Scott Brown (Special Election in January)
Nevada-Danny Tarkanian
New York B-Maggie Brooks
North Dakota-John Hoeven
Pennsylvania-Pat Toomey
Washington-Kathy Lambert
Assuming Republicans hold all their open seats next year, they can take control of Senate by winning 11 of these races. It is possible, but it must come down to successful candidate recruitment.
I will bet you $100 at 100 to 1 odds against Kennedy's old seat flipping. I'll give you even odds of the margin of victory being at least 20%.
Cut all these numbers in half and the same offer stands for Washington.
"Maggie Brooks"? What on earth makes you think she'll even beat Lazio in the primary?
