If Trump is the Republican nominee, is the general election going to be close?

[All Along The Watchtower]

Yes, in all likelihood.

Think about it: Trump is widely perceived to be something of a trailblazer on issues like opposing illegal immigration, the resettlement of Syrian refugees in the U.S., and free trade agreements. He has struck a chord with millions of angry, deeply jaded and cynical Americans who genuinely despise the political class in Washington, and who recognize that the career politicians that they have voted for don't give a damn about ordinary men and women (if they're not actively contemptuous toward their voters). That sense of frustration, bitterness, and anger is palatable, and Trump has successfully harnessed it.

Furthermore, the Democratic Party runs the real risk of being rejected by voters who are deeply concerned about Islamic terrorism, Iran, Russia, China, and just a general sense that the world is more violent and chaotic than ever. In our globalized world, what happens in the rest of the world has real consequences for American interests - both at home and abroad. And Trump recognizes that.

Finally, this is a wide-open race after 8 years of a Democratic Presidency. In the context of everything I mentioned previously, in addition to the real possibility that the American economic recovery will slow considerably (if not collapse entirely) by November, the Republicans have a real shot at winning this race. And Donald Trump could win not just the Republican base regions in the South and the Great Plains, but also, make inroads into the Midwest, the Rust Belt, and even the Northeast. That would be truly impressive indeed.

Of course, no one has a crystal ball. But this is just how I see the general election panning out, at this point, anyway.