Chirac dissolves... in 1995

[Antonio the Sixth]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

French politics are quite easy to predict : In 1995, the right gets a vicory, but less than in 1993 ( there is no reason to think that UDF would lose more seats that RPR, remember that they were allied and UDF's constituencies were not less right-wing than the RPR's ). Chirac nominates Juppé and refuses to fire him despite his unpopularity. In 2000, left gets a solid victory and Jospin becomes Prime Minister. In 2002 there is a similar campaign that in the real life, but Jospin is not so "usé" and manage to be qualified for the 2nd round. And at his point, I think Jospin would win.

[Antonio the Sixth]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

French politics are quite easy to predict : In 1995, the right gets a vicory, but less than in 1993 ( there is no reason to think that UDF would lose more seats that RPR, remember that they were allied and UDF's constituencies were not less right-wing than the RPR's ). Chirac nominates Juppé and refuses to fire him despite his unpopularity. In 2000, left gets a solid victory and Jospin becomes Prime Minister. In 2002 there is a similar campaign that in the real life, but Jospin is not so "usé" and manage to be qualified for the 2nd round. And at his point, I think Jospin would win.
[/quote]

The RPR and UDF might be allied, yes, but I believe Chirac and the RPR would find a way to rid themselves of the Balladuriens. I doubt Jospin would have won in 2002. Firstly, look at Chirac in 1988 and secondly, it's been impossible for a Prime Minister to move from Matignon to the Elysée directly. I have no reason to believe Jospin would be any different.
[/quote]

Chirac lost in 1988 because he was the worst Prime Minister in the history and because he didn't yet learn to lie during a campaign. Nothing to do with Jospin. The argument "it will never happen because it never happenned" is ridiculous.

[Antonio the Sixth]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

French politics are quite easy to predict : In 1995, the right gets a vicory, but less than in 1993 ( there is no reason to think that UDF would lose more seats that RPR, remember that they were allied and UDF's constituencies were not less right-wing than the RPR's ). Chirac nominates Juppé and refuses to fire him despite his unpopularity. In 2000, left gets a solid victory and Jospin becomes Prime Minister. In 2002 there is a similar campaign that in the real life, but Jospin is not so "usé" and manage to be qualified for the 2nd round. And at his point, I think Jospin would win.
[/quote]

The RPR and UDF might be allied, yes, but I believe Chirac and the RPR would find a way to rid themselves of the Balladuriens. I doubt Jospin would have won in 2002. Firstly, look at Chirac in 1988 and secondly, it's been impossible for a Prime Minister to move from Matignon to the Elysée directly. I have no reason to believe Jospin would be any different.
[/quote]

Chirac lost in 1988 because he was the worst Prime Minister in the history and because he didn't yet learn to lie during a campaign. Nothing to do with Jospin. The argument "it will never happen because it never happenned" is ridiculous.
[/quote]

If Chirac plays his card well from 2000 to 2002, like Mitterrand did between 1986 and 1988, he could very well defeat Jospin. In addition, if Jospin still runs a crap campaign in 2002 and the Plural Left is as disunited in 2002, it would be even harder for him to win.

Granted, if Jospin gets into the runoff in 2002 in this scenario, there is no way Chirac would have won a Mitterrandesque landslide.

Lastly, I never said that it would always be impossible for one to move from one side of the Seine to the other. It has just been shown, over and over again, that it is very hard for one to do so directly due to the nature of the Prime Ministerial office.
[/quote]

Chirac is definitely not intelligent as Mitterrand, and that's not a political opinion. It would never be able to ridicule Jospin as Mitterrand did. And for the second time I repeat you that Chirac lost firstly because he was a bad prime minister who led a catastrophical government. Nothing to do with Jospin.