WW1: US stays neutral, Czar stays in power, Central Powers win

[Antonio the Sixth]

I mean the conflict you're describing here bears no meaningful resemblance to WW1 as it unfolded from even the very beginning. In order to make it make any sense, you'd have to not just change the war itself, but also the events that led up to it and the main goals of the players involved. Especially the idea of Russia having "minimal involvement" is absurd for at least two reasons 1. Due to the nature of its military logistics Russia's involvement was very much an all-or-nothing proposition. There's a reason Germany expected to knock France out quickly so it could focus the bulk of the fighting on Russia. And 2. The rest of the Entente only got dragged into the war because of Russia in the first place. If Russia barely pulls its own weight, there is no shot France is willing to jump in without its backing.