Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Antonio the Sixth]

There was speculation that certain European sanctions were relaxed or slowed down in exchange for this, but the cynic in me suggests that was going to happen anyway.

That's not something you can do under the table though? The EU is famously bureaucratic, so any decision it makes will involve dozens of actors and have an enormous paper trail.

[Antonio the Sixth]

This winter will be Russia's last shot at breaking the West's resolve. While it will be bad for Europe energy-wise, it's basically as bad as it's ever going to get, and eventually a mix of decarbonization and finding alternative sources of gas and energy (a process that's already going faster than many of us anticipated) will bring energy costs down from 2023 on. Meanwhile the sanctions on Russia are the ones that will keep getting worse and worse as they increasingly run out of components they need to run so much of their infrastructure (unless you seriously think China can suddenly figure out how to produce semiconductors of comparable quality).

Basically, if come March 2023 Ukraine is still holding outside of the South and Donbas, the US is keeping up the pace of weapons delivery, and sanctions remain in place, Putin has no endgame left. He might be able to keep the war going for a while longer, but at that point he'd only making his and Russia's life worse for no conceivable benefit.

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-22/europe-faces-up-to-10-difficult-winters-belgian-premier-warns

"Belgian Prime Minister Warns of 10 ‘Difficult’ Winters for Europe"

Now the solution to decoupling from Russian energy will be 10 years from now?

Fully reorienting Europe's energy policy is going to be the affair of a decade, sure (even 2 or 3 decades if we're talking about decarbonization). But with regards to weening ourselves off Russia, the pain is largely frontloaded. Ceteris paribus, every winter after this coming one it will be a bit easier than the previous one, as new supply routes are set up and energy prices reach a new equilibrium. Of course there are a lot of unknowns in this process, but if you're relying on Europe "cracking", you'd better hope to see concrete signs of it very soon, or it will become less and less likely.

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/no-matter-who-wins-ukraine-america-has-already-lost-204288

"No Matter Who Wins Ukraine, America Has Already Lost"

"Regardless of who wins the Ukrainian war, the United States will be the strategic loser. Russia will build closer relations with China and other countries on the Eurasian continent, including India, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the Gulf states. It will turn irrevocably away from European democracies and Washington. Just as President Richard Nixon and Henry Kissinger played the “China card” to isolate the Soviet Union during the Cold War, presidents Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping will play their cards in a bid to contain U.S. global leadership."

A USA think tank breaks ranks with the wisdom of the USA getting involved in the Russia-Ukraine conflict

cool story bro

[Antonio the Sixth]

So this pretty much comes close to a general draft? Or anything Putin could do below that? I thought he wanted to avoid a general mobilization because it may risk more backlash?

The question also is what kind of forces these will be. Just a higher number of personell does accomplish little, especially with a lack of training. This is more than a numbers game. If they're untrained and sent into battle, it's basically just a suicide squad.

137K people doesn't sound like a general draft to me. And yeah, it will take a while before they are anywhere close to combat-ready.

Still, definitely a sign that Putin is ready to drag this out. And therefore we also should make it clear we're ready to stand by Ukraine for the long haul.

[Antonio the Sixth]

ok that's enough jaichind spam. Back to the ignore list you go.

[Antonio the Sixth]

If anyone is sincerely getting persuaded by Jaichind&co's attempts to convince you that the West is losing the economic war to Russia, watch this video. Putin is putting all his remaining chips into a desperate gamble to scare Europeans off - but if we call his bluff in the next few months, he's basically out of options.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, these people are very clearly colonial officers complicit in a project of cultural genocide. They're entitled to a fair trial, of course, but Ukraine has every right to throw the book at them.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, these people are very clearly colonial officers complicit in a project of cultural genocide. They're entitled to a fair trial, of course, but Ukraine has every right to throw the book at them.

Some, perhaps even most. But, as with the missionaries - there must have been a substantial minority who primarily wanted to teach literacy or maths to kids in a desperate area. Probably a lot of delusion affecting these people (as with the soldiers who thought they weren't attacking Ukraine in the first phase), but a case-by-case basis might be better for them than a minimum of 8 years in prison.

TimTurner's point about amnesty is pertinent, especially as Ukraine approaches February 23 lines (which it might well push beyond). "Just following orders" isn't morally acceptable even for conscripts, but some legal leniency might be for the best when it comes to mobilised men who have essentially been treated as slaves. Ukraine should seek to inspire further surrenders from LDPR men who are being told by the Russians that the best treatment they can get is to fight for Putin with an 1890s rifle in hand, although there is an incentive not to do this so long as Russia holds more POWs to exchange than Ukraine.

Of course there's going to have to be some distinction made between people who went along with their lives when they thought Russia would be their long-term future, and people who went above and beyond to cozy up with the occupier as a way to accrue power (especially if that power was wielded to oppress their countrymen). But calling for a blanket amnesty seems frankly preposterous. Not only is it an insult to the vast majority of Ukrainians who either silently endured occupation or actively fought against it, but it creates plenty of perverse incentives of its own. I have to imagine that the knowledge that they might be held accountable by Ukraine (or even, at this stage, by Ukrainian partisans) is keeping at least a few would-be collaborators at bay. Besides, it doesn't seem like a great idea to entrust the future of liberated territories to people who have shown a willingness to actively prop up their occupation as long as it was convenient.

I know the word "denazification" has taken a quite perverse connotation when associated with this war, but when it comes to the real denazification, the general consensus (at least among people left of center) is that it didn't go far enough, not that it went too far. Clearly people at the time felt differently, and they no doubt had in mind a lot of the reasons you and Tim are talking about. But I hope we can agree they were wrong - that there were higher considerations that should have prevailed over those. I think the logic applies just as much here. By all means, sort out the grunts from the ringleaders - but justice for the latter should be swift.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, these people are very clearly colonial officers complicit in a project of cultural genocide. They're entitled to a fair trial, of course, but Ukraine has every right to throw the book at them.

Some, perhaps even most. But, as with the missionaries - there must have been a substantial minority who primarily wanted to teach literacy or maths to kids in a desperate area. Probably a lot of delusion affecting these people (as with the soldiers who thought they weren't attacking Ukraine in the first phase), but a case-by-case basis might be better for them than a minimum of 8 years in prison.

TimTurner's point about amnesty is pertinent, especially as Ukraine approaches February 23 lines (which it might well push beyond). "Just following orders" isn't morally acceptable even for conscripts, but some legal leniency might be for the best when it comes to mobilised men who have essentially been treated as slaves. Ukraine should seek to inspire further surrenders from LDPR men who are being told by the Russians that the best treatment they can get is to fight for Putin with an 1890s rifle in hand, although there is an incentive not to do this so long as Russia holds more POWs to exchange than Ukraine.

Of course there's going to have to be some distinction made between people who went along with their lives when they thought Russia would be their long-term future, and people who went above and beyond to cozy up with the occupier as a way to accrue power (especially if that power was wielded to oppress their countrymen). But calling for a blanket amnesty seems frankly preposterous. Not only is it an insult to the vast majority of Ukrainians who either silently endured occupation or actively fought against it, but it creates plenty of perverse incentives of its own. I have to imagine that the knowledge that they might be held accountable by Ukraine (or even, at this stage, by Ukrainian partisans) is keeping at least a few would-be collaborators at bay. Besides, it doesn't seem like a great idea to entrust the future of liberated territories to people who have shown a willingness to actively prop up their occupation as long as it was convenient.

I know the word "denazification" has taken a quite perverse connotation when associated with this war, but when it comes to the real denazification, the general consensus (at least among people left of center) is that it didn't go far enough, not that it went too far. Clearly people at the time felt differently, and they no doubt had in mind a lot of the reasons you and Tim are talking about. But I hope we can agree they were wrong - that there were higher considerations that should have prevailed over those. I think the logic applies just as much here. By all means, sort out the grunts from the ringleaders - but justice for the latter should be swift.

Denazification happened after the war was finished, so the political risk of going after more Nazis was far lower. Leniency now might help speed the war's end and/or tilt the conflict in Ukraine's favour (it is still far from certain that Ukraine can take or hold all of what is occupied). Ukraine should seek to lower LDPR morale and create distance between their troops (especially the mobilised ones) and Russia. Throughout history, this has been a big part of how the Taliban, the Vietcong and others successfully broke the unity of armed coalitions.

I'm not suggesting a blanket amnesty is a good idea - there is value in POW exchanges as of yet and there are war criminals who need to be tried. Still, hinting at some form of leniency for the average mobilised Joe might not be a bad plan.

We're talking past each other. From what I've seen, Ukraine is already offering very generous terms to enemy soldiers who want to defect (I'm not sure whether that's just for Russians or if it includes DNR and LNR forces, but barring contrary evidence we should assume the latter). That's a whole separate issue from what we're talking about.

What we're talking about is enemy collaborators, people who facilitate the running of civilian administration for the benefit of the occupier. That's a completely separate issue from defecting soldiers, and I don't think they should be confused like that. Sure, there might be some edge cases where it might be worth it to lure in an influential local collaborator with a promise of amnesty, and in this case by all means do it. But this is gonna be a pretty marginal situation. In terms of general policy, Ukraine's interest is the exact opposite: striking fear into their hearts so as to deter more would-be collaborators. Ukrainian partisans seem to be doing a good job of that while the occupation is ongoing. Once the occupation is ended, though, rule of law should prevail and Ukraine's legal system should take on that responsibility, but still act with all due diligence.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The line between those who merely worked under the Russians, and those who worked with the Russians, will not be clear cut.

Suppose say Ivan worked as the manager of the power grid in Donetsk City. In normal times, he did perfectly normal things to keep the lights on. But, the Russians came and demanded that he allocate more power to their bases. Then, the Russians invite Ivan to attend an electric engineering course in a Russian university, where he met plenty of Russian "minders". Upon his return, he continues his job. He was also required to attend parades glorifying the pro-Russian puppet government. 2022 comes along, and Ivan is tasked with quickly repairing the power grid after each Ukrainian strike. This, of course, has the effect of allowing the Russian army to continue operating with minimal disruption.

Was Ivan complicit with the Russians, or was he just doing his job to keep the lights on?

That's for the Ukrainian justice system to decide. Personally, I wouldn't go too hard on a case like this (I'm a lot more concerned with people who run the puppet governments, as it is a direct challenge on Ukraine's existence as a state in a way merely obeying armed bandits at gunpoint isn't), but it's not my decision to make.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Are the moderators just going to leave up a post where a poster fantasises about choking and f****** a woman then?

It’s war. War means there is a period of time when two classes of people whose needs and survival have been determined to be exclusively relevant. During that time, one group lies outside the moral community of that  group inasmuch beyond whatever obligations outside classes universally impose upon them. In layman’s terms,     your feelings.

What does this (vaguely Schmittian) screed have to do with the lurid fantasies of an American keyboard warrior then? Is he risking life and limb on the frontline against the Ruskies? What do these contributions add to the thread?

I guess he isn’t allowed to be angry, then. There is a time and place for everything.

No he’s not. He’s a grown man (a fair bit above the average age on this forum as far as I can tell), who lives thousands of miles away from the conflict zone, a conflict zone that, I assume, he has never been to. If you want a thread of threnodies and torture porn then do it somewhere else.

I disagree. Am I allowed to disagree?

Dude. You're making me agree with the literal paid Russia shill. Please chill out.

It's okay to be outraged at what Russia has done to Ukraine (in fact we all ought to be!), but that's no excuse for indulging in dehumanization and calling for gratuitous violence beyond what is tangibly helpful for Ukraine's cause. None of us are currently fighting right now, and while we can be angry, putting our own emotional needs front and center is frankly disrespectful to the countless Ukrainians who are keeping a steady resolve in the face of adversities we can scarcely imagine. These Ukrainian heroes are fighting for many things, but one of the things they're fighting for is a world where the rule of law prevails over the whims of bloodthirsty brutes. Part of honoring them is not acting like the latter.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I used to be very proud of this thread, the information provided and all the hard work that went into providing it, the good humor, all of it. It became one of the mostly useful compendiums  of information on the internets. Thus the  above is particularly disappointing to me. Please stop. Thank you.

Yeah, seriously. This helps absolutely no one.

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://twitter.com/laraseligman/status/1570526838933557248

Only 600M? I don't understand why they do it in small drips instead of a full long-term aid package numbered in the billions.

[Antonio the Sixth]

As someone who voted to Remain, the absolute inertia by the EU against countries like Hungary for it's democratic backsliding is a a disgrace, particularly given the pressure (and reciprocation) exerted against Balkan members. Hungary (and to some extent Poland) have been given preferential treatment on account of them being perceived to be... more 'western.'

This is wrong on so many levels. First of all, it makes no sense to compare the situation of actual EU members vs prospective members. The latter are subject to harsh conditions and always have been (the standards have arguably been raised in the past decade, but that's mostly because many countries look back critically on the 2004-2007 enlargements and want to proceed more cautiously). Sanctioning a EU member is a completely different process, and one where the deck is stacked against such efforts (for understandable if flawed reasons). Violations of the rule of law weren't even contemplated as grounds for sanctions until recently, a consequence end-of-history hubris on the part of the EU's founders which is easy to mock in retrospect but was universal back then.

It's also patently false to say there's been "absolute inertia" in this area. Both the Parliament and the Commission have been making the case for sanctioning Hungary (with the, again, very limited and ad hoc mechanisms available) for years at this point. In all cases, the only real roadblock has come from member states, especially since most of the proposals so far have required unanimity, and Hungary always had its Visegrad allies to count on. Now, the commission has finally come up with a proposal that only requires a qualified majority, so hopefully we can finally expect this to go somewhere, but one way or the other, the ball now is clearly in the member states' court.

I also have no idea where this notion that Hungary is seen as "more Western" comes from. I've never met a Western European who thought Hungary was Western but Bulgaria wasn't, or something. Maybe that's a thing in Britain but not over here.

At the end of the day, it's all well and good to criticize the EU (I certainly do it plenty!), but it would be better to criticize it for the right reasons, and with a modicum of knowledge about how its internal mechanisms actually work. These lazy intellectual shortcuts are how you people ended up with Brexit, and I expected better of a poster like you.

[Antonio the Sixth]

As someone who voted to Remain, the absolute inertia by the EU against countries like Hungary for it's democratic backsliding is a a disgrace, particularly given the pressure (and reciprocation) exerted against Balkan members. Hungary (and to some extent Poland) have been given preferential treatment on account of them being perceived to be... more 'western.'

This is wrong on so many levels. First of all, it makes no sense to compare the situation of actual EU members vs prospective members. The latter are subject to harsh conditions and always have been (the standards have arguably been raised in the past decade, but that's mostly because many countries look back critically on the 2004-2007 enlargements and want to proceed more cautiously). Sanctioning a EU member is a completely different process, and one where the deck is stacked against such efforts (for understandable if flawed reasons). Violations of the rule of law weren't even contemplated as grounds for sanctions until recently, a consequence end-of-history hubris on the part of the EU's founders which is easy to mock in retrospect but was universal back then.

It's also patently false to say there's been "absolute inertia" in this area. Both the Parliament and the Commission have been making the case for sanctioning Hungary (with the, again, very limited and ad hoc mechanisms available) for years at this point. In all cases, the only real roadblock has come from member states, especially since most of the proposals so far have required unanimity, and Hungary always had its Visegrad allies to count on. Now, the commission has finally come up with a proposal that only requires a qualified majority, so hopefully we can finally expect this to go somewhere, but one way or the other, the ball now is clearly in the member states' court.

I also have no idea where this notion that Hungary is seen as "more Western" comes from. I've never met a Western European who thought Hungary was Western but Bulgaria wasn't, or something. Maybe that's a thing in Britain but not over here.

At the end of the day, it's all well and good to criticize the EU (I certainly do it plenty!), but it would be better to criticize it for the right reasons, and with a modicum of knowledge about how its internal mechanisms actually work. These lazy intellectual shortcuts are how you people ended up with Brexit, and I expected better of a poster like you.

You claim that "this is wrong on so many levels" and then you say nothing at all to actually dispute any of what afleitch said, and then you blame him for Brexit and impugn him as a poster. He's not the one who comes off as being in the wrong here.

You might want to read my post again. I've refuted every single point Afleitch made, sometimes word for word. I've also never blamed him for Brexit, and if having high expectations of a poster is "impugning" them, then guilty as charged I guess. This is the sort of post I would have shrugged off coming from a generic US poster, because I know they rarely have a chance to keep up with EU politics, but from Afleitch it genuinely surprised me.

What a bizarre reaction.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Has the EU been 'inert'? Yes. Of course there is delay and internal politics at play. That there is now targeted movement does not erase that.

No, EU institutions have not been inert - as I pointed out they have been active on the Hungary issue for several years, but have been stymied by Hungary-allied member states. Blaming the EU for that would be like blaming Congress for passing a law that was vetoed by the President.

There were fast sanctions against Austria, five years after entry for Haider entering government. There were restrictions to even Slovakia entering until Meciar was gone.

What kind of sanctions specifically? That matters here. Iirc Hungary has also received cutbacks on a number of EU funding it would otherwise receive. It's still far from enough, of course, but that's because different funding is tied to different rules. What is currently in the works in terms of sanctions for Hungary is unprecedented as far as I can tell, cutting Hungary's funding by a third. The rule-of-law procedure that was blocked by Hungary's allies would have gone even further, essentially freezing its EU membership altogether.

Also, if your explanation is that Hungary is being treated more gently seen as more Western, why are you bringing up Slovakia and Austria? Do people see Austria as "Eastern" now??

You could have just asked me to elaborate.

I'm not trying to be confrontational. You know I agree that it's a travesty that Orban has been allowed a free rein for so long. But your analysis of how and why this has happened just doesn't hold water. It's important to understand why problematic outcomes occur, which institutional actors are to blame, and what motivates them. Failure of analysis on each of these points makes it impossible to actually fix the problem.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The partial mobilisation (which seems pretty close to a full mobilisation) vindicates what I postulated months ago with regards to escalatory concerns: most “escalation” would be contingent on the extent of Ukrainian success rather than the specific tools they were given to achieve it. Consequently, many of the restrictions and delays in the supply of materiel, training etc. to the Ukrainian Army only served to draw out the conflict and cause more Ukrainian casualties prior to Russia being forced to raise or fold in the face of Ukrainian success.

This should be kept in mind when supplying future aid. Either we prefer to see Ukraine lose rather than risk further Russian escalation against it, or we reduce the restrictions on what we supply to help it win. I’d rather let Ukraine judge the risk, as it’s their country - but the global ramifications of potential Russian nuclear use in anger may mean total Ukrainian loss is preferable. I don’t think we can fine-tune aid to keep front lines stable forever.

The global ramifications of ceding to nuclear blackmail fundamentally guarantee nuclear war in the long run. The only way to maybe avoid it is to consistently call Putin's bluff and never give any signal that we're cowed by his threats.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Every Azovstal defender has been freed. In exchange Russia gets...  Medvedchuk? Putin is completely delusional.
https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1572696559166566402

Eww. Just to be clear, while I stand with the Ukrainians, the disgusting azov soldiers are NOT hero’s in the slightest. They should’ve been left to die in captivity imo.

Not every Azov member is a Nazi, although some undoubtedly are. It is a specific problem with this regiment, although the overall situation had also improved in recent years. The situation is complex and it is probably difficult to separate the "bad" apples from the good ones.

The leaders of Azov are literally ALL members of a far-right ‘third position’ ie fascist party. Likewise, Azov itself was founded out of the ‘ultra’ football hooliganism movement which /IS/ heavily influenced by far-right and fascists ideologies as well. Maybe there are members who claim otherwise but the history and ethos of Azovstal is crystal clear... And I have zero sympathy for any members of a fascist organization. Let them rot.

Oh good grief. Yes, the Azov Battalion (which is not the same as Azovstal - that's just the name of the factory) was founded as a far-right paramilitary, but the whole point of integrating it into the Ukrainian military was precisely to neuter its ideological component, and from all the reports I've seen actually coming from inside Ukraine (not from Russian sources who paint everyone and everything Ukrainian as Nazis, or from Western sources who love to feel smarter and more tolerant than everyone else) show that this has been largely successful. Likely today's Azov Regiment soldiers are still more likely to hold ethnonationalist views than the average Ukrainian soldier, sure, but claiming "they're all nazis" is a huge oversimplification, and saying they deserve to be indefinitely detained by a country known for its war crimes and inhumane treatment of POWs is frankly just sick behavior. This essentialist, reductionist attitude is poisoning the brains of leftists online and we need to f**king stop. Let's leave the politics of cruelty to the right, please.

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://twitter.com/myroslavapetsa/status/1573307059621318657?s=20&t=hBgTrys...

Snihurivka is really close to the front line. I have to wonder if there is an actual uprising against the occupation there, if th Ukrainian army could be able to move in and expel the occupiers.

[Antonio the Sixth]

For f**k's sake, nobody cares about the conspiracy theories of edgy teenagers who think they're geopolitical experts. Can we go back to discussing actual news about the war?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Anschluss... interesting choice of words by this German media outlet.

Doesn't that literally mean "annexation"? What other word would Germans use in this context?

Also frankly Russia deserves to be compared to Nazi Germany. I'm sick of pretending otherwise.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Anschluss... interesting choice of words by this German media outlet.

Doesn't that literally mean "annexation"? What other word would Germans use in this context?

https://de.wiktionary.org/wiki/annektieren

Ah, interesting. So I guess the noun form would be "Annektrierung" or something like that.

I still don't understand the outrage, though.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Ah, interesting. So I guess the noun form would be "Annektrierung" or something like that.

Annexion or Annektierung -- but Anschluss usually is used in the sense of "Connection" (to infrastructure - like water supply, electricity, roads, railroads, pipelines or connection between trains) - so to say that some area is "angeschlossen" means it is now connected / part of the same network - and this could, of course - also refer to a country - a former "country" becoming part of a larger country... (So - formalistically, "Anschluss" would pretend (as Putin is claiming) a "voluntary" connection, therefore the "referendums" - and this, of couse, is identitcal with the  famous "Anschluss" of Austria...

So "Anschluss" actually still has a more positive connotation than Annexion or Annektierung even today? I see, interesting.

Then yeah, the outrage against that news outlet is fully warranted.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Well, Italian TV agrees with me: