Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Antonio the Sixth]

While things haven't gone well for Russian officers, a Ukrainian officer just got promoted.

https://twitter.com/AlexKhrebet/status/1515667971267608582

Hahaha, I love that. "You know what you did (affectionate)".

In worse news, saw reports that Russia has retaken Kreminna. How big of a deal is that?

[Antonio the Sixth]

In the least surprising news yet, Russian nazis are also weebs.
https://twitter.com/Jack_Mrgln/status/1515787920505987076

Pink-graded catgirl ahegao? Seriously? Someone needs to Clockwork Orange these creeps with Faye-centric episodes of Cowboy Bebop and Misato-centric episodes of NGE until they develop less embarrassing taste in anime crushes.

I hate that I understood every word of this post.

I had to look up ahegao, but I had enough of a sense of what I was getting into to do so in Incognito mode.

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/eu-says-gas-payments-may-be-possible-under-russian-roubles-proposal-without-2022-04-22/

"EU sees way to pay for Russian gas without breaching sanctions"

It seems EU ok's Russia compromise of EU companies paying USD or EUR for Russian gas and Gazprombank immediately converting it to RUB.  This entire affair is a battle of technicalities.  In the end, the fact remains that Russia will continue to export gas and get paid for it while giving Putin some face-saving "victory".  In the meantime RUb surges to 76 which is early Jan 2022 levels.

Europe accepting to pay for Russian gas in roubles? Boris Johnson saying Russia could win the war? German intellectuals writing open letters suggesting Ukraine should surrender? But I thought Europe was united for Ukraine? lol

And people who called out the European hypocrisy (from both sides, from the ones asking them to do more to help and the people against the sanctions on Russia) were criticized for pointing the elephant on the room.

The economy vs national security debate is the key to understand the start of this new global order. Easy to push for intense structural de-globalization in rhetoric only but not really do it when you know you’re among the places which most rely on the economic benefits of said globalization and would be among the more affected places if a reversal trend were to start.

That explains the positions of places like Germany who want the war to end for a quick return for business as usual logic, one friendly to their wallets. That’s not going to happen and they will eventually have to be honest about what they care more about: Globalization or Ukraine.

Do you have anything to contribute to this thread beyond preening concern-trolling about muh European hypocrisy and argumentum ad populum fallacies to justify your country's disgusting "neutral" stance toward Russia's genocide? This is getting pathetic.

[Antonio the Sixth]

With regards to Russia's gas embargo on Poland and Bulgaria... aside from the fact that Poland's gas ressources are pretty full at the moment, Bulgaria is a country which uses only an almost negligable amount of Russia gas. So it seems like Putin deliberately targeted the countries who could "handle" such an embargo the best, which makes it an almost symbolic move or a form a "very serious" threat, depending how want to look at it.

Is it worth the revenue lost? Like, even if Poland and Bulgaria are a small percentage of Russian gas exports, with all the other sanctions in place, Russia can't exactly afford to reduce its cash flows.

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1519686692596334592

Excellent. Congress needs to take this up swiftly.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Vladimir Putin, meet the sunk-cost fallacy. That's what the war has seemingly become for Russia at this point.

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1520167137507221506?s=20&t=3wX55ctURgt...

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1520170795112280067?s=20&t=3wX55ctURgt...

One thing I keep noting that this guy clearly gets but a lot of people don't is that people dramatically overestimate the size of Russia's population.

Fun comparison (both rounded to the nearest 5 million):

Population of Russia: ~145 million
Population of Mexico: ~130 million

Think about that for a second. Would you be saying "Mexico has unlimited manpower, it can keep sending wave and wave of people into Guatemala, Guatemala has no chance here?" in the event that war was taking place? No, of course not. Russia is basically Mexico X 1.1 in terms of people. It's a way way smaller country than people think it is.

Your comparison is even off because Guatemala has less than half of Ukraine's population. It would be more like Mexico going up against all of Central America.

Plus as CL and badger noted, Russia's demographics are significantly worse than the raw numbers suggest. That's why I was always skeptical of the claim that Russia had a huge manpower advantage in this war (though I did share in the common assumption their hardware advantage was more significant than it proved to be).

[Antonio the Sixth]

German opposition leader Friedrich Merz plans to visit Kyiv. This puts pressure on Scholz to follow suit and is likely intended to embarrass the Chancellor politically. Previously, only a delegation consisting of the chairs of the Bundestag committees on foreign affairs, european affairs, and defence - Michael Roth (SPD), Anton Hofreiter (Greens), and Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann (FDP) - had visited Ukraine almost three weeks ago.


https://mobile.twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1520454399612571648

God help me, I really want the Greens and FDP to dump Scholz and do a Jamaica coalition instead.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I don't know if this has been reported on here yet, but....


https://twitter.com/IlenIsmo/status/1522148996999000065


As usual, the decision making process on this one was a bit of a lengthy one, and consisted of following the lead of Australia, Canada, France, Italy, Netherlands, and the United States after Scholz had been worked on by Greens, FDP, and the media for a while.

Do we have confirmation that Scholz is on board with this? We've been burned before...

[Antonio the Sixth]

I don't know if this has been reported on here yet, but....


https://twitter.com/IlenIsmo/status/1522148996999000065


As usual, the decision making process on this one was a bit of a lengthy one, and consisted of following the lead of Australia, Canada, France, Italy, Netherlands, and the United States after Scholz had been worked on by Greens, FDP, and the media for a while.

Do we have confirmation that Scholz is on board with this? We've been burned before...

Well, so far it's not "officially" official, but it has by now been reported by several sources. Which means it's probably more if an issue of "when" and not "if".

The announcements for Marders and Leopards also sounded pretty official...

[Antonio the Sixth]

$11 billion is still over 2.5 times all military aid sent to Ukraine so far since the beginning of the war, so it's nothing to sneeze at. If we assume a constant rate of transfers, that would allow Ukraine to continue holding out all the way through the end of the year. Alternatively, if Biden ramps up the amounts (and quality) of equipment sent, Ukraine's capabilities in the next 3 months should be substantially increased.

I've heard it said that the package is still "missing a zero" in order to truly allow Ukraine to win the war, and it's probably true that they'll need at least a few more packages of this size to really bring it home, but victory for Ukraine isn't really an either-or proposition, and every town that's liberated from Russia is one town that won't have to suffer through ethnic cleansing and political repression.

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://twitter.com/MaximEristavi/status/1529013754658181120?s=20&t=CHxZbuWW...

https://twitter.com/MaximEristavi/status/1529062437416321026?s=20&t=CHxZbuWW...

Wait, is this implying that Severodonetsk is encircled? Current frontline maps still show a substantial (but shrinking) opening. If that's no longer the case, it's deeply worrying news.

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://twitter.com/lapatina_/status/1530495048382656513

Further evidence that the NYT editorial board is a uniquely pathetic bunch even by the low standards of American punditry.

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://twitter.com/AVindman/status/1531351463062130688

Has there still been no clarification??

I swear, this White House's communication is almost as bad as the previous.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I think it is paramount to consider the difficult situation of Germany, Italy et al. and the political and economic stakes at play. From a U.S. perspective, it is always easy to come up with maximalist (e.g., "Ukraine should retake Crimea as well!") demands since Washington, D.C. is thousands of miles away and there is no dependence on Russian energy.

Berlin, Rome, and Paris, however, are much closer to Moscow and much more strongly affected by the fallout of the war. Consequently, they have an interest in peace and, as much as this is possible, a normalization of the situation (which would probably be a return to the status quo ante). Neither an endless prolongation of the war nor a serious destabilization of the Russian regime helps them.

In practice, this means that they support the Ukrainian efforts (Germany does so to a degree that would have been unthinkable a few months ago) but clearly prefer a solution at the negotiation table and refuse to give Zelenskyy a carte blanche. I don't see how this is wrong given their predicament.

I'm French-Italian (I live in France and have family and friends in both countries) and I think we should have cut off the gas on February 24. To even dare to compare the economic and material inconveniences we would face to the plight of the Ukrainian people is utterly obscene and alien to me. I know I say that from a position of relative privilege, but there are some causes worth making real, personal sacrifices for, and if this isn't one of them, what is?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Zelensky also said he vows to take back Crimea. I don't think it's a likely scenario, but sure as hell I hope that's going to happen.

https://twitter.com/republic/status/1536593168635863042

Yeah, it's probably more likely that Russia takes Lviv than Ukraine takes Crimea.

Antonio, you made a grave mistake.

I'm really sorry.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Alternatively, he might be lying through his teeth and claiming jets won't be delivered until they are, but that assumes a degree of competence I'm not willing to in this case.

The safest assumption with Macron, from having to deal with him at home every day, is that he's talking out of his ass. Not lying through his teeth as part of some 34d chess plan, but also not a serious commitment he'll stand by if standing by it becomes inconvenient. He just says whatever to get through the moment, and will have no problem saying the opposite thing tomorrow if he thinks it will help. His coming around to giving Ukraine candidate status is already a 180° from a few month ago.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Alternatively, he might be lying through his teeth and claiming jets won't be delivered until they are, but that assumes a degree of competence I'm not willing to in this case.

The safest assumption with Macron, from having to deal with him at home every day, is that he's talking out of his ass. Not lying through his teeth as part of some 34d chess plan, but also not a serious commitment he'll stand by if standing by it becomes inconvenient. He just says whatever to get through the moment, and will have no problem saying the opposite thing tomorrow if he thinks it will help. His coming around to giving Ukraine candidate status is already a 180° from a few month ago.

If that's his modus operandi, a commitment about not sending e.g. small arms can't be relied on by Russia for long, because arranging the delivery of, logistics for and training on small arms is a quick process.

The issue with having this kind of stance on jets is that it gives Russia months - possibly years - of breathing room, depending on how long it takes to make newer jets work for Ukraine. Unless "we won't supply jets" does not preclude training Ukrainians on jets in the meantime, Macron changing his mind will be followed by the non-trivial delay in getting the jets ready. In the interim (in or before which the Ukrainian Air Force might be heading towards total collapse), there are fewer and fewer Soviet/Russian jet/AA platforms Ukraine can be supplied with.

It was bad enough with the MiG-29s that Ukraine already knows how to use, and I hope (but don't expect) that leaders learnt from this.

That's fair, but frankly, I think the underlying fact here is that Macron isn't the one who ultimately makes this decision - it will probably be Biden in concert with the Eastern European countries that are actually needed for the logistics of the transfer. Of course, Biden himself isn't free from waffling and being unconscionably timid about imagined risks of "escalation". But I'd pay more attention to what he, Austin, Sullivan etc. are saying than Macron.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Alternatively, he might be lying through his teeth and claiming jets won't be delivered until they are, but that assumes a degree of competence I'm not willing to in this case.

The safest assumption with Macron, from having to deal with him at home every day, is that he's talking out of his ass. Not lying through his teeth as part of some 34d chess plan, but also not a serious commitment he'll stand by if standing by it becomes inconvenient. He just says whatever to get through the moment, and will have no problem saying the opposite thing tomorrow if he thinks it will help. His coming around to giving Ukraine candidate status is already a 180° from a few month ago.

Will not the French press hound Macron to define precisely what he means when he says that France will "guarantee" Ukraine's security (presumably in exchange for conceding more real estate to Russia)? I mean guarantee is a French word that the Normans imported into English, so I don't think we have a translation problem here. Guarantee means you put up all your assets to back up preserving Ukraine's security. That means if Russia goes into Ukraine for more, then France goes in with troops and weapons. If Russia rattles its nukes, France rattles theirs. And if France defaults and breaches the guarantee contract, what is Ukraine's remedy? Can it  seize France's nukes, the Eiffel Tower, the contents of the Louvre, what?

How can I arrange to ask Macron all of these interesting questions myself? I want him.

How aggressive is the French press? Does Macron give press conferences?

I wish you luck. Alas, this government is an expert in not answering questions. We're talking about a president who managed to get reelected without a second term agenda.

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1547974697475719170

Looks like Ukrainian F-16s could become a reality.

What's the detail of the Ukrainian aid aside from that? Is there also more money for the drawdown authority and other weapons transfer programs?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Economic scoreboard.  Average investment bank surveys GDP and CPI for 2022 for key economies

2022 GDP growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb         +2.6%       +4.0%       +3.7%      +4.4%       +5.1%         +2.8%
March      -9.6%        +3.3%      +3.6%       +4.0%      +5.0%          +2.4%
April      -10.0%        +2.9%       +3.3%      +3.9%      +4.9%          +2.2%
May       -10.0%        +2.8%       +2.7%      +3.8%      +4.5%          +1.9%
June        -9.6%        +2.6%       +2.6%      +3.7%      +4.1%          +1.8%
July         -9.1%        +2.6%       +1.9%      +3.4%      +4.0%          +1.6%


2022 CPI growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb         +7.1%       +3.8%       +5.0%      +5.3%       +2.1%         +0.9%
March    +20.0%       +5.2%       +6.1%      +6.3%      +2.2%          +1.3%
April      +21.3%       +6.4%       +6.9%      +7.1%      +2.2%          +1.5%
May       +17.2%       +6.7%       +7.1%      +7.5%      +2.2%          +1.7%
June      +15.7%       +7.0%       +7.5%      +8.1%      +2.2%          +1.9%
July       +15.2%       +7.5%       +7.9%      +8.5%      +2.3%          +2.0%

The economic growth projections for the USA fell a lot this month.  I think the numbers for the EU and UK are lagging and I can expect them to fall in the August surveys.  The collective West inflation projections continue to rise.  The Japanese rise in CPI is purely imported while domestic demand continues to stagnate. The PRC economic dropoff is less about the war than the COVID-19 lockdowns.  The economic momentum in Russia continues to be moving upward as the expected level of GDP fall continues to decrease while the expected CPI also falls.

The total net economic impact of the war on Russia seems to be around 11%-12% of GDP while the economic impact of the war on the collective West seems to be around 1.4% of GDP.  But in PPP terms the collective West has a GDP of around 13-14 times bigger than Russia.  So from this, we can say the total economic damage on the collective West has been around 1.5 times of Russia.  Of course, the economic damage to Russia is concentrated in an economy with a much smaller GDP than the collective West making it harder to bear.  Still, the collective West has to burn 1.5 units of economic output to get 1 unit of economic damage to Russia and these numbers might shift more making the ratio even more unfavorable to the collective West.

Well, then it's a good thing our greater GDP allows us to weather the damange relatively painlessly while Russia will be crippled for decades to come. The West's economic dominance affords it considerable geopolitical power if it's actually willing to make full use of it, and I guess now is the critical test to see if we are.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Economic scoreboard.  Average investment bank surveys GDP and CPI for 2022 for key economies

2022 GDP growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb         +2.6%       +4.0%       +3.7%      +4.4%       +5.1%         +2.8%
March      -9.6%        +3.3%      +3.6%       +4.0%      +5.0%          +2.4%
April      -10.0%        +2.9%       +3.3%      +3.9%      +4.9%          +2.2%
May       -10.0%        +2.8%       +2.7%      +3.8%      +4.5%          +1.9%
June        -9.6%        +2.6%       +2.6%      +3.7%      +4.1%          +1.8%
July         -9.1%        +2.6%       +1.9%      +3.4%      +4.0%          +1.6%


2022 CPI growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb         +7.1%       +3.8%       +5.0%      +5.3%       +2.1%         +0.9%
March    +20.0%       +5.2%       +6.1%      +6.3%      +2.2%          +1.3%
April      +21.3%       +6.4%       +6.9%      +7.1%      +2.2%          +1.5%
May       +17.2%       +6.7%       +7.1%      +7.5%      +2.2%          +1.7%
June      +15.7%       +7.0%       +7.5%      +8.1%      +2.2%          +1.9%
July       +15.2%       +7.5%       +7.9%      +8.5%      +2.3%          +2.0%

The economic growth projections for the USA fell a lot this month.  I think the numbers for the EU and UK are lagging and I can expect them to fall in the August surveys.  The collective West inflation projections continue to rise.  The Japanese rise in CPI is purely imported while domestic demand continues to stagnate. The PRC economic dropoff is less about the war than the COVID-19 lockdowns.  The economic momentum in Russia continues to be moving upward as the expected level of GDP fall continues to decrease while the expected CPI also falls.

The total net economic impact of the war on Russia seems to be around 11%-12% of GDP while the economic impact of the war on the collective West seems to be around 1.4% of GDP.  But in PPP terms the collective West has a GDP of around 13-14 times bigger than Russia.  So from this, we can say the total economic damage on the collective West has been around 1.5 times of Russia.  Of course, the economic damage to Russia is concentrated in an economy with a much smaller GDP than the collective West making it harder to bear.  Still, the collective West has to burn 1.5 units of economic output to get 1 unit of economic damage to Russia and these numbers might shift more making the ratio even more unfavorable to the collective West.

Well, then it's a good thing our greater GDP allows us to weather the damange relatively painlessly while Russia will be crippled for decades to come. The West's economic dominance affords it considerable geopolitical power if it's actually willing to make full use of it, and I guess now is the critical test to see if we are.

Given that no country outside of “the West” will ever trust it or more importantly, its institutions, again after this year, it may well be the last time.

Most of the world still has no choice but to "trust" the West and its institutions, because that's the only way in which the game of global capitalism is played. There's simply no way of achieving long-term development without a significant amount of trade with OECD countries. Some countries have played the game well enough that they've made the West as dependent on them as they are on us (either though sheer size like China or by specializing on a key commodity like Saudi Arabia) but that's not the same as having the resources needed to supplant the West as a provider of FDIs and a consumer market (for that latter purpose, of course, the obscene inequality of these countries is a key barrier). That will probably change eventually, but it will take decades.

I find it interesting that you're engaging in the same kind of Western defeatism that we normally see on the third-worldist left. I guess simping for autocrats makes strange bedfellows.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Well, then it's a good thing our greater GDP allows us to weather the damange relatively painlessly while Russia will be crippled for decades to come. The West's economic dominance affords it considerable geopolitical power if it's actually willing to make full use of it, and I guess now is the critical test to see if we are.

I think the reading of these numbers from the Russian point of view would be: There is no reason for us to stop the war.  What damage we took has already taken place and could not be reversed.  Going forward marginal economic impact would be greater on the collective West side.  On the medium run time is on our side.

It seems pretty optimistic to suggest the worst is over for Russia. Sure, some of the sanctions had their immediate effect and can't do much more than they already have, but plenty of others are designed to hace an impact over the long term - everything from import bans of chips that will make a lot of basic tech much harder to operate, to curbs on energy exports that start taking effect at the beginning of next year and which will sting all the more if energy prices end up going down across the board. There is plenty of pain to come for Russia, and it's in no way comparable to the minor economic downturn that's happening in the West.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Well, yeah, the ultimate point will be to see if the West is willing to endure minor economic pain longer than Putin is willing/able to let Russia endure major economic pain. It's been clear for a while that this is what the conflict will ultimately boil down to. And it is very much an open question, because Westerners' past attitudes to economic pain and their painfully short attention spans don't exactly inspire confidence.

Still, at least for now, we are doing exactly what we ought to be doing (well, not enough, but still a lot). And the idea that this is "hurting us more than it's hurting Russia" is an active contributor to the propaganda that's helping to weaken our collective resolve. It's empirically, demonstrably false and those who spread it have a very clear motive for doing so.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Maybe Russia will ‘crack’ first (although a Russian crackup would not be a pretty sight and would cause enormous problems of its own) - personally, I don’t think that’s going to happen, so all of this sturm und drang will have been for nothing.

You think a Russian crackup is unlikely to occur faster than... the collapse of the whole Western-dominated global capitalist system that has existed in some form or other since the 1850s?

And these people call themselves "realists". Good grief.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Maybe Russia will ‘crack’ first (although a Russian crackup would not be a pretty sight and would cause enormous problems of its own) - personally, I don’t think that’s going to happen, so all of this sturm und drang will have been for nothing.

You think a Russian crackup is unlikely to occur faster than... the collapse of the whole Western-dominated global capitalist system that has existed in some form or other since the 1850s?

And these people call themselves "realists". Good grief.

The latter is... not what I meant (not least since Russia is integrated into the global capitalist system alongside every other damn polity in the world besides that of the Sentinelese spear chuckers) - what I meant was that when the consequences of the polices pursued by Western governments over the last months work themselves out over the next year or so then, the climbdown will occur, in terms of a gradual relaxation of sanctions and efforts to normalise relations. Obviously, the stakes are higher for Russia; a Western climbdown means embarrassment and sheepishness for Western governments and opinion formers; Russian failure in Ukraine means the potential collapse of the Putinist system (although, obviously, governments collapses through the usual means can't be ruled out in the West) and thus the possible collapse of the Russian Federation as it presently exists. This is, of course, the usually unstated and occasionally stated goal of the anti-Russia lobby in the West; nonetheless, it is a foolish goal, given that whatever replaces Putin in "Russian Russia", at the very least, is unlikely to be more sympathetic to the interests of Western opinion formers  (regardless of what the emigres say, but then emigres are always the most irrelevant people to take advice from, whether they be the French royalists in the 1790s, the White Russians in the 1920s, or liberal Russian expats like Andrei Kozyrev in 2022) and much more likely to generate further instability in the region.

Really, as I've said before, this whole area is one we should have steered well clear of. Unfortunately, the 'cross-in-a-box-every-five-years' fetishism of the Western opinion forming establishment got the better of common sense.

Well as I said, it's been clear for a long time that Western resolve is the key variable here. It's just hard to take your posts about it seriously when you're so transparently working to undermine it (and have an avowed financial incentive in doing so). Whatever Western governments end up doing, I'd hope at least they aren't influenced by literal paid Russia shills.

Nice of you to also throw the casual contempt for democracy in there as well. Speaking of ticking boxes, you're doing a great job filling out the checklist of the standard Putin sycophant.