Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Antonio the Sixth]

During WW2, there were French far-rightists who hated Jews about as much as the Nazis did but still fought side by side with them in the resistance because they didn't want their country occupied by Germany. At the end of the day, what you believe is less important than what you do, and anyone who takes up arms to defend Ukraine against Russia right now is doing the right thing. We can talk about the future of the Azov regiment after the war, but fearmongering about it now feeds right into Putin's propaganda.

Besides, if anything is ever going to deradicalize a far-rightist, it's gotta have to be fighting in defense of your country under a Jewish president who has become a symbol of national resilience and courage. I wouldn't be surprised if quite a few Ukrainians who had negative attitudes toward Jews have had something of a change of heart over the past year.

[Antonio the Sixth]

During WW2, there were French far-rightists who hated Jews about as much as the Nazis did but still fought side by side with them in the resistance because they didn't want their country occupied by Germany. At the end of the day, what you believe is less important than what you do, and anyone who takes up arms to defend Ukraine against Russia right now is doing the right thing. We can talk about the future of the Azov regiment after the war, but fearmongering about it now feeds right into Putin's propaganda.

I think there's a difference between "fear-mongering" about it and celebrating/honoring it. But OKAY.

I think what it was celebrating here (a show of fraternity and camaraderie with Israeli Jews) is something worth celebrating. Of course it definitely proves anything about Azov's character, but neither are the cherry-picked pre-2015 instances of far-right symbolism. I don't claim to know the hearts of Azov soldiers right now, all I can do is judge them by their actions.

[Antonio the Sixth]

During WW2, there were French far-rightists who hated Jews about as much as the Nazis did but still fought side by side with them in the resistance because they didn't want their country occupied by Germany. At the end of the day, what you believe is less important than what you do, and anyone who takes up arms to defend Ukraine against Russia right now is doing the right thing. We can talk about the future of the Azov regiment after the war, but fearmongering about it now feeds right into Putin's propaganda.

I think there's a difference between "fear-mongering" about it and celebrating/honoring it. But OKAY.

I think what it was celebrating here (a show of fraternity and camaraderie with Israeli Jews) is something worth celebrating.

Not necessarily. Israeli politicians embracing the Western far right bodes poorly for everyone involved. It should not be assumed that they will be a moderating influence.

I don't have the context for this clip, but I feel like there's a difference between people who are known for fighting a war of anti-imperial resistance while having far-right sympathies being willing to partake in traditional Jewish culture, and whatever the f**k Bibi is doing cozying up with the likes of Orban. The political strategy and ideological connection is far more evident in the latter case.

But anyway, I'm not interested in having a deep discussion on the merits of a random internet clip. This is a distraction within a distraction compared to what really matters here.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Now that Ukraine is actually on the brink of winning the war,

This is a very dangerous assumption to make. If you take Ukraine's war aims as the complete liberation of national territory, that's unfortunately still very far off, even with this new round of aid. Of course, the hope is that Russia folds before we get to that point, but given past behavior I'm not comfortable betting on it.

The sad truth is that we're probably looking for at least another year of mostly-attritional warfare, albeit one marked by occasional Ukrainian gains like those we've seen around Kharkiv and in Kherson. The goal remains holding on, and being in this for the long haul will make the difference.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Now that Ukraine is actually on the brink of winning the war,

This is a very dangerous assumption to make. If you take Ukraine's war aims as the complete liberation of national territory, that's unfortunately still very far off, even with this new round of aid. Of course, the hope is that Russia folds before we get to that point, but given past behavior I'm not comfortable betting on it.

The sad truth is that we're probably looking for at least another year of mostly-attritional warfare, albeit one marked by occasional Ukrainian gains like those we've seen around Kharkiv and in Kherson. The goal remains holding on, and being in this for the long haul will make the difference.

Not if we give Ukraine the weapons with which to overcome that Western Front-style stalemate, which we are beginning to do.  We can end this war this year militarily if we really want to.   

From my (admittedly limited) understanding, these are still a long ways away from the kind of aid that could achieve a front-wide breakthrough. Hell, in most respect we're still just helping Ukraine reach parity with Russia in terms of equipment.

I agree the US could single-handedly win this war for Ukraine in a matter of months if it really wanted to, but that would require a level of support that's probably at least one order of magnitude larger than the funds appropriated so far. And of course with the Putin stooges now running the asylum in the House, it's unclear if we'll get any more money for that. Frankly Biden could and should have done a lot more back when he had a friendly Congress, but at this point even that's beyond us. Either way, it's important to be realistic about what we're in for. I believe Ukraine can and must win, but it will not be quick or easy.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The Discharge Petition exists for a reason

And when's the last time it's been used for a significant policy item under a Republican Congress?

Given military history, if this drags on for years and years and both sides are 100% committed, Russia would presumably win due to having 3X the population unless the advantage of the NATO weapons is truly the equivalent of guns vs. swords in earlier eras.  Thankfully, I don't think Russia is 100% committed to this while Ukraine probably is.

As far as I can see it, combat power in the long-term is basically a function of population*will to fight*resources. Obviously Russia has the higher population, but nowhere close to Ukraine in terms of that population's will to take part in the war effort. How the resources balance stacks up is entirely in the hands of NATO allies, and will probably be the decisive factor.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The Discharge Petition exists for a reason

And when's the last time it's been used for a significant policy item under a Republican Congress?

Given military history, if this drags on for years and years and both sides are 100% committed, Russia would presumably win due to having 3X the population unless the advantage of the NATO weapons is truly the equivalent of guns vs. swords in earlier eras.  Thankfully, I don't think Russia is 100% committed to this while Ukraine probably is.

As far as I can see it, combat power in the long-term is basically a function of population*will to fight*resources. Obviously Russia has the higher population, but nowhere close to Ukraine in terms of that population's will to take part in the war effort. How the resources balance stacks up is entirely in the hands of NATO allies, and will probably be the decisive factor.

I mean past Republican Congresses were very pro interventionist when it comes to Foreign Policy so such an item would not have to be used to begin with. Also the discharge petition allows the GOP to run an end around the freedom caucus without risking another speakership election .

Well, I hope you're right but that sure sounds like wishful thinking to me. The Republican establishment is cucked to the crazies, it has been for decades.

[Antonio the Sixth]

God, they really should have gone with a Jamaica coalition in 2021. It's not like having the SPD in government does any good for German workers anyway. What a worthless party.

[Antonio the Sixth]

God, they really should have gone with a Jamaica coalition in 2021. It's not like having the SPD in government does any good for German workers anyway. What a worthless party.

There's really not much evidence the CDU would be significantly better here, if at all.

Isn't the entire German political establishment on board with sending Leopards (or at least allowing third-party countries to send them) now? The only opposition seems to come from Scholz and people beholden to him.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Well the CDU hopeful for Chancellor last time was actually pro-Russia, if anything.

I mean, within the context of pre-2022 German politics? Arguably most German politicians were "pro-Russia" back then, but some have wisened up more than others since February. Or was he like, Schröder-level bad?

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1617250287261024262
https://mobile.twitter.com/MarionVanR/status/1617240538628980740

Do we ACTUALLY know Scholz is okay with that? Plenty of times Baerbock or other Green/FDP ministers have made statements like that only to be shut down by Fearless Leader.

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://twitter.com/OlenaHalushka/status/1617599253626646528?s=20&t=VM8kjDi4...

The poll details. The last two options are pretty odd. Is anyone actually considering those seriously? Why Lithuania? Ukraine doesn't even border Lithuania.

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1617531862309810185?s=20&t=VM8kjD...

Make Intermarium Great Again!

Seriously though, Poland, Ukraine and the Baltics (as well as Belarus if it was a democratic country free from Lukashenko's boot) have very strong shared geopolitical interests, and them forming a close-knit military and political bloc would be a great solution to contain Russia in the long run.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Seems like the Abrams tanks could be a long-term initiative for Ukraine's future military, and mostly committed to now in order to placate Germany/Scholz and get them to approve Leopard 2 tank deliveries:

https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1617956020168589313

Quotes from the article:

U.S. officials said details are still being worked out. One official said the tanks would be bought under an upcoming Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative package, which provides longer-range funding for weapons and equipment to be purchased from commercial vendors.

The U.S. announcement is expected to come on Wednesday in coordination with an announcement by Germany that it will approve Poland’s request to transfer German-made Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine, according to one official. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because the decision has not yet been made public.

By agreeing to send the Abrams at an as-yet unspecified time under the assistance initiative, the administration is able to meet German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s demand for an American commitment without having to send the tanks immediately.

How in God's name does it take "years"?? Seriously??? This is the f**king US military-industrial complex we're talking about here. Unless they're deliberately slow-walking this I have no idea why they couldn't get it done in a few months.

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1618294718923739152?t=bFCurxV4vUMtba_D0sS_0w&...

"It will take time" without any specifics on how much time is not a great sign.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Don't believe that it has been mentioned yet, but looks like Ukraine will be receiving the most recent version of the M1 Abrams, which might explain why these are being sourced from the manufacturing vendor, rather than from existing US Military stockpiles.

The variant of the American tank going to Ukraine will be the M1A2 Abrams, Pentagon spokesman Sabrina Singh said Thursday, disclosing for the first time new details about what kind of tank will be purchased and sent to the government in Kyiv. The M1A2 is more modern than the M1A1 that is still in service, with more advanced electronics and targeting ability, according to U.S. military specifications. The U.S. military owns both versions. Singh, speaking at a news conference, declined to address Thursday whether the United States has declined to send some of the thousands of Abrams tanks in its own arsenal because of classified aspects to its depleted uranium armor. The Pentagon, she said, has no “excess” tanks in its own inventory to provide Ukraine.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/01/26/russia-ukraine-war-latest-updates/

That's so f**king stupid. Ukraine doesn't need the most top-of-the-line gear. It needs solid, functional gear and it needs it fast. Just send the Abrams you have in storage right now and keep the ones being produced for yourself.

This is such a baffling political decision I have to wonder if it's not just a way to buy time because Biden doesn't actually want to send them at all.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Solovyov with hair:



It seems the Russians failed to make life so attractive that Ukrainians and other peoples of former Soviet Republics "want to make peace with us and come to us".

"Are we the baddies?" moment

[Antonio the Sixth]

can we stop arguing with obvious trolls please

[Antonio the Sixth]

Kadyrov literally betrayed his people and helped crush those who were fighting for Chechnya's freedom. He is the last person who has any right to speak of it.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Kadyrov literally betrayed his people and helped crush those who were fighting for Chechnya's freedom. He is the last person who has any right to speak of it.

I agree. His argument in the video that Chechnya couldn't feed, clothe, and fund public projects itself is incredibly weak.

There's a reason no nation's heroes or founders ever said: "I'd like for my homeland to be independent and free, but we get lots of money from our occupiers. So independence is not possible at this time."

Yeah, exactly. This is what every Quisling says: "Oh, I'd love to fight for our freedom, I'm a true patriot, but the cost would be too high!" And frankly, it would be a fair point when uttered by anyone else. But when you end up actively profiting off your collaboration with the occupier, you lose every right to call yourself a patriot. Kadyrov and his goons have used Putin's support as a way to entrench their own power in Russia. They couldn't give less of a sh*t about Chechnya.

[Antonio the Sixth]

US plans to send Ground Launched Small Diameter Bomb (GLSDB) which has a range of 94 mi/150 km.

That would put all of occupied Ukraine except Crimea in range.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us-readies-2-bln-plus-ukraine-aid-package-with-longer-range-weapons-sources-2023-01-31/

Looks to be confirmed... plus a few other items not yet posted here.

After months of agonizing, the U.S has agreed to send longer-range bombs to Ukraine as it prepares to launch a spring offensive to retake territory Russia captured last year, U.S. officials said Thursday, confirming that the new weapons will have roughly double the range of any other offensive weapon provided by America.

The U.S. will provide ground-launched small diameter bombs as part of a $2.17 billion aid package it is expected to announce Friday, several U.S. officials said. The package also for the first time includes equipment to connect all the different air defense systems Western allies have rushed to the battlefield and integrate them into Kviv's own air defenses, to help them better defend against Russia's continued missile attacks.

The U.S. aid package includes $425 million in ammunition and support equipment that will be pulled from existing Pentagon stockpiles and $1.75 billion in new funding through the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, which is used to purchase new weapons from industry.

The USAI, which will pay for the longer-range bombs and the air defense system integration, also funds two HAWK air defense systems, anti-aircraft guns and ammunition, and counter-drone systems.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/us-to-send-ukraine-longer-range-bombs-in-latest-turnaround/ar-AA172G3p?

So these are better than HIMARS but not as good as ATACMS, right? Someone with knowledge of this stuff help me out here.

[Antonio the Sixth]

One way to tell whether a criticism is being levied in good faith is whether or not it's coherent. For example, I do in fact criticize the West a lot for slow-walking aid to Ukraine and being skittish about arbitrary "red lines" instead of simply giving Ukraine its full support with all conventional weapons available. I think it's a disgrace that it took so long to send them tanks, and that for some f**king reasons they still can't get fighter jets or ATACMS even though there is a clear strategic need for both. I hope Biden and EU leaders will eventually get their act together and do what needs to be done, but in the meantime I'm happy to criticize them.

Of course, the Russian propaganda's critique of the West (and their "third worldist" useful idiots like Red Velvet) completely fails by that standard. The West is simultaneously pathetically weak and oppressively strong. The West is simultaneously doing too much and too little for Ukraine. The West is simultaneously provoking WW3 and too cowardly to fight on its own. It's all very transparent what's going on here: people have decided they hate "the West" (whatever the f**k that even means - more likely they just hate the US) and are reasoning their logic backward from that. Or they're just paid shills of the one country that's directly responsible for the war and their job is literally to deflect from that responsibility. Either way, please, people, listen to what people are saying and ask yourself if there even is a coherent argument to be refuted here. Most of the time, there isn't.

[Antonio the Sixth]

If you'd told me a few years ago that Zizek would take the coherent, thoughtful, principled left-wing position while Chomsky would be a mindless hack who speaks in nothing but thought-terminating clichés and seems more interested in owning the libs than making the world better, I'd have a hard time believing you. Then again, maybe that's my bad, because looking back at it, Chomsky's foreign policy worldview has always been morally abhorrent drivel. Frankly, any leftist who opposed NATO intervention in Kosovo should have been excised and shunned forever: that was the great canary in the coal mine for leftist foreign policy.

[Antonio the Sixth]

People here really need to learn to use the ignore function (ideally with the enhancements you can turn on in the "Atlas - Forum Options" menu).

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://mobile.twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1629045914139602945

So this is where the West makes the difference. As long as Western support continues, the attrition game will work to Ukraine's advantage. I mean, we can clearly see that Ukraine now is better armed and equipped than it was one year ago. If Western support dries up, then the trend could eventually reverse (though whether that actually allows Russia to make advances remains to be see).

Fundamentally, we've known that this was the war's dynamic all along. The point is to act on it and stay focused on the end goal.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Excellent video that summarizes the strategic stakes of the war at this point:

Basically, Russia has already "lost" in terms of all its pre-war aims. The military, political, economic and demographic hole it has dug itself into is one it won't be able to climb out of for generations. It can at best continue the stalemate, perhaps achieving local success, but none of it will bring it close to the kind of strategic position it was striving for before the war.

Ukraine, however, hasn't won yet, and the difference between a years-long prolonged war of attrition that exhausts both sides and a decisive Ukrainian victory entirely depends on what the West is going to do. We have the economic and military capability to provide Ukraine with what they need to win, but we have to actually use it to its full potential.