GA-SEN 2022 Megathread: Werewolves and Vampires

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://twitter.com/natalie_allison/status/1598139129673678849

Should have cast a blank or a write-in. Not voting is just a failure of one's civic duty and especially inexcusable of a public official.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Duncan voted

https://twitter.com/BruneElections/status/1598337877473124354?s=20&t=cB10Gcw...

The charitable interpretation is that he technically voted but left the ballot blank/spoiled. We'll never know, of course, but that it seems stupid thing for a public official to lie about something that's public record. Then again, that's a Republican we're talking about, so a stupid lie is never something we can rule out.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Current turnout (% of registered voters) by CD:

Do you have that as percentage of the GE EV? I think that's the more relevant metric here.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Current turnout (% of registered voters) by CD:

Do you have that as percentage of the GE EV? I think that's the more relevant metric here.

https://georgiavotes.com/ushouse.php

Here is it plotted against PVI.



Not a strong correlation, but it's clearly there.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Thank you for all the data, Adam.

Could we also have a comparison of General vs Runoff EV by age and the % runoff early voters who didn't vote in the general?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Updated figure on % of GE EV by district, now with the right IV/DV setup and polynomial fit since the relationship is actually fairly messy:

[Antonio the Sixth]

Updated figure on % of GE EV by district, now with the right IV/DV setup and polynomial fit since the relationship is actually fairly messy:

I would have about 0.1% confidence in that line (and sounds like you would also not have much more since you mention it is pretty messy). It also has the shape it has because of the assumption that it has a polynomial functional form. You would get very different results if you assumed even a different degree polynomial.

Part of the issue is there are not many data points, so if it were possible to do the same thing for state house districts or something like that which is a bit more granular, you might be able to see some more reliable patterns. Could be interesting to see possibly.

I picked order-3 because that's when the pattern largely stabilizes. But yeah, it's not really meaningful. I guess it is a bit telling that the relationship is positive around the neutral-PVI point but negative around very partisan districts (the somewhat swingy areas are the ones trending toward Warnock), but yeah, can't make too much of it.

[Antonio the Sixth]

We Catholics (well, "we") love to give Anglo Protestants sh*t for their bland aesthetics, but that cassock (if that's what you call it?) is gorgeous. Is that common in Black churches?

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1599524755522068480

* Starts to count the number of pronouns in the quote, gives up *

"Why are certain unspecified people bringing pronouns in the military of this country? Pronouns?! What the heck is a pronoun. Herschel Walker is sick & tired of that pronoun stuff. Aren’t the people in this audience all sick & tired of that pronoun stuff? So why don’t Herschel Walker and the people who agree with Hershel Walker call this senator Former Senator? That’s the aforementioned senator's pronoun."

is what he should have said. Sick of these conservatives who don't practice what they preach.

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1599524755522068480

* Starts to count the number of pronouns in the quote, gives up *

"Why are certain unspecified people bringing pronouns in the military of this country? Pronouns?! What the heck is a pronoun. Herschel Walker is sick & tired of that pronoun stuff. Aren’t the people in this audience all sick & tired of that pronoun stuff? So why don’t Herschel Walker and the people who agree with him call this senator Former Senator? That’s the aforementioned senator's pronoun."

is what he should have said. Sick of these conservatives who don't practice what they preach.

You left a "him" in there, you woke liberal trash.

Dang. Fixed now.

[Antonio the Sixth]

They'd better have a needle. It's already inexcusable how bad their election interactives (if you can even call them that) have been this cycle. You can't even hover over counties to get detailed results?? I pay $52 a year for this sh*t.

[Antonio the Sixth]

They'd better have a needle. It's already inexcusable how bad their election interactives (if you can even call them that) have been this cycle. You can't even hover over counties to get detailed results?? I pay $52 a year for this sh*t.

Using the NYT 2022 results site on the phone actually allows you to click on things and is very accessible. Using the site on a computer is a disaster as there’s literally no way to see exact vote totals by county and you can’t hover or even click on counties/swing arrows. My guess is they just were having trouble doing the hover feature when creating the website and basically ran out of time to fix it.

Literally the 2012 NYT result site is more accessible.

The fact that it worked on the phone (which is a terrible interface to do data analysis from) but not on a computer browser makes it even worse honestly. Like, this feel less like laziness and more like a deliberate insult to election nerds.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Current estimates for votes cast today are around 1.1-1.3 million.

https://twitter.com/rahulbali/status/1600215832847450112?s=20&t=bnz4ulqGgxQJ...

That would imply the Early Vote makes up 59-63% of the total vote. It was 64% in November, so it will be proportionally less this time, but OTOH the people who did vote early seem more Dem-friendly demographically, so it's probably a wash in terms of impact.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Will there be any last statewide turnout update before results start trickling in?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Rafensberger said on CNN that as of 6pm ED turnout was at around 1.33m.

Hm. So significantly higher share of ED vote than in the general. Not particularly surprising given the shorter window. We're gonna have to see how it breaks down geographically and demographically (but I doubt we'll get that data before the actual vote results, so the point is moot).

[Antonio the Sixth]

Are we expecting the counting to go faster now that they have only one race to count for? There were a bunch of offices up in November so that probably slowed things down.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Wonderful! Georgia reelected a truly admirable man to the Senate for the next 6 years. This was closer than it had any right to be (and that I expected - at this point I was beginning to buy the hype of a Warnock+4/5 result) but still the biggest victory for a Democrat in Georgia for federal office since, what, the late 90s? At the very least, it shows that 2020 wasn't a fluke, though these gains will remain shaky until we break the Republican trifecta.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Any theory for why Walker improved so much in Northern Georgia specifically? It's really the only region that had a clear swing toward him from November (the rest of rural GA was a wash and obviously metro Atlanta and other major cities swung toward Warnock). Why could that be? I heard it was raining pretty bad there on Election Day, but if that depressed turnout it should have hit Republicans harder since proportionally more Democrats voted early.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So assuming that all the votes are in except for provisionals, this is how the electorate broke down.

Early In Person
Warnock+7.2 -> Warnock+15.59
2276270 -> 1716541 (-24.59%)

Mail-in
Warnock+37.17 -> Warnock+28.4
245935 -> 188380 (-23.4%)

Election Day
Walker+15.49 -> Walker+13.77
1410749 -> 1630612 (+15.58%)

So the electorate was (excluding provisionals), 57.88% Early, 6.25% Mail, 35.87% Election-Day back in November. Yesterday it was 48.55% Early, 5.33% Mail, 46.12% Election Day.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So assuming that all the votes are in except for provisionals, this is how the electorate broke down.

Early In Person
Warnock+7.2 -> Warnock+15.59
2276270 -> 1716541 (-24.59%)

Mail-in
Warnock+37.17 -> Warnock+28.4
245935 -> 188380 (-23.4%)

Election Day
Walker+15.49 -> Walker+13.77
1410749 -> 1630612 (+15.58%)

So the electorate was (excluding provisionals), 57.88% Early, 6.25% Mail, 35.87% Election-Day back in November. Yesterday it was 48.55% Early, 5.33% Mail, 46.12% Election Day.

So Walker won total EV by 17 points and Walker won ED by 14 points (i.e. less than he did in the GE). I think I mentioned this earlier today yesterday, but that is incredibly embarrassing for Republicans!

I'm guessing what happened is that a bunch of Democrats weren't able to vote early because of the shorter time period, and voted on Election Day instead. That's probably why we saw higher election-day turnout than expected, and also why it didn't benefit Walker like we expected it would.

What puzzles me though is the big Republican swing in mail-in votes. They saw the same decline as early votes so it's weird they trended in the opposite direction. Any idea what happened there?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Also is there anywhere we can find the demographic breakdowns (age, race, gender etc.) of early vs election-day votes, and how they compare with the same data for November?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Asking again:

Also is there anywhere we can find the demographic breakdowns (age, race, gender etc.) of early vs election-day votes, and how they compare with the same data for November?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Does anyone have a map or top swings since November? It's interesting that some here have talked about Walker swings in north GA, while the map on Atlas from 2020 Senate (technically 2021) has Dem swings in north GA and mainly Repub swings south of the Atlanta metro.

I also just realized that in contrast to the swing map I posted earlier, the 2022 Atlas swing map for GA-SEN appears to be comparing it to the 2021 Senate special runoff. This is abnormal, as usually, Atlas maps compare to the last regular election for the seat in question (which would have been Isakson's re-election). I haven't ran the figures to be sure about my initial claim there wrt 2021 runoff versus 2022 runoff, but it seems to be the most logical comparison on paper.

I mean, that's the least of that map's problem, given that even the results map still shows the November election results rather than the runoff results (eg. Washington and Baldwin are colored as Walker wins and lots of shades are wrong).

Dave really dropped the ball this year, honestly. Starting to get the feeling he's lost his passion for election data.