2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Washington

[Antonio the Sixth]

So Reps went for the aggressive gerrymander and Dems completely threw the ball. How stupid is the WA Democratic party??

There sure as heck shouldn't be any "compromise" here. WA Democrats need to take a page from their Southern neighbors.

[Antonio the Sixth]

A reliably blue 8th seat, yes, but actually population trends now allow for the Oregon border seat to be the Cascade-crosser without having to split the city of Yakima, which didn't used to be the case and would definitely be an arguable alternative to crossing the Cascades at Ellensburg. And crossing the Cascades along the Columbia is hugely advantageous for the Democrats as southern Yakima County is strongly Democratic (mostly Hispanic and Native). The Democrats on the Commission definitely should have been proposing the map below, which creates another Biden seat while leaving all of the Democratic incumbents safe (the parts north of Olympia don't really matter for this purpose; they could do them however they wanted re: incumbent protection but I went for logical COIs, minimal splitting of municipalities and road connections (e.g., Skykomish)).

The border seat is Biden+1; the remaining Democratic seats are Biden+10 (Olympia/Olympic peninsula), Biden+15 (Bellingham/Everett), Biden+20 (Tacoma) or more.

Seeing WA-03 go into Yakima County explains why Republicans would definitely not be fans of such an idea (the current version is Trump+4 in 2020 and Trump+7 in 2016). I definitely agree that Democrats should be proposing such a plan. If anything's holding them back, it's that the Olympic Peninsula district would have to move into heavily Republican Lewis County. It's currently a Biden+18/Clinton+12 district. If you put all of Pacific County and Wahkiakum County into the Olympic Peninsula district (an idea I like because it creates an entirely coastal district), you can put the eastern 2/3 of Lewis County back into WA-03. If you also shift some precincts in Yakima County, the respective districts become Biden+11.4 and Trump+0.4.

You can also try something else by keeping all of Lewis County in WA-03 and moving WA-06 (your WA-04) into Cowlitz County and taking in the city of Longview. I'm strongly of the mind that only WA-03 should be crossing the West/East line. I used your map as a template and only edited the districts mentioned. The districts mentioned become Biden+13.2 and Trump+2.4:

The fact that Democrats didn't even propose a map like this (which is both more compact and more Democratic than the one they went with) is criminal malpractice.

[Antonio the Sixth]

hahahahahaha ok dude

[Antonio the Sixth]

A reliably blue 8th seat, yes, but actually population trends now allow for the Oregon border seat to be the Cascade-crosser without having to split the city of Yakima, which didn't used to be the case and would definitely be an arguable alternative to crossing the Cascades at Ellensburg. And crossing the Cascades along the Columbia is hugely advantageous for the Democrats as southern Yakima County is strongly Democratic (mostly Hispanic and Native). The Democrats on the Commission definitely should have been proposing the map below, which creates another Biden seat while leaving all of the Democratic incumbents safe (the parts north of Olympia don't really matter for this purpose; they could do them however they wanted re: incumbent protection but I went for logical COIs, minimal splitting of municipalities and road connections (e.g., Skykomish)).

The border seat is Biden+1; the remaining Democratic seats are Biden+10 (Olympia/Olympic peninsula), Biden+15 (Bellingham/Everett), Biden+20 (Tacoma) or more.

Seeing WA-03 go into Yakima County explains why Republicans would definitely not be fans of such an idea (the current version is Trump+4 in 2020 and Trump+7 in 2016). I definitely agree that Democrats should be proposing such a plan. If anything's holding them back, it's that the Olympic Peninsula district would have to move into heavily Republican Lewis County. It's currently a Biden+18/Clinton+12 district. If you put all of Pacific County and Wahkiakum County into the Olympic Peninsula district (an idea I like because it creates an entirely coastal district), you can put the eastern 2/3 of Lewis County back into WA-03. If you also shift some precincts in Yakima County, the respective districts become Biden+11.4 and Trump+0.4.

You can also try something else by keeping all of Lewis County in WA-03 and moving WA-06 (your WA-04) into Cowlitz County and taking in the city of Longview. I'm strongly of the mind that only WA-03 should be crossing the West/East line. I used your map as a template and only edited the districts mentioned. The districts mentioned become Biden+13.2 and Trump+2.4:

The fact that Democrats didn't even propose a map like this (which is both more compact and more Democratic than the one they went with) is criminal malpractice.

Ever since Washington became a state in 1889, we have seen nothing but 130 years of straight white men dominating the redistricting process, even as recently as 2010.

And finally, in 2020, the Washington State Democratic Party made the brave and bold choice to appoint April Sims, a black woman, and Brady Walkinshaw, a gay man of color, to the redistricting commission. April Sims in particular came up with the most reasonable redistricting maps I have ever seen in my lifetime. She was not interested in shameless partisan redistricting. She drew districts that represented communities of interest and reflected the natural population growth in our state. She put the best interests of Washingtonians of all colors first and foremost.

But rather than recognizing her maps, and the maps of Brady Walkinshaw, as the watershed moment they are... All Antonio can do is call this criminal malpractice. Apparently, black women and gay men of color are incapable of creating shameless gerrymanders to the liking of a White Italian-Frenchman.

Shame on you, Antonio. Your racism, misogyny, and homophobia do NOT reflect the values of regular Washingtonians. You should be embarrassed! And I am proud of my state for rebuking the disgusting "values" of people like you.

Folks, I will not lie to you. Part of me was worried that these two were "affirmative action" picks. But I was wrong. April Sims came up with some of the best redistricting maps I have ever seen this state produce. Do not listen to bigots like Antonio. Listen to brave women like April Sims. People like her represent the future of our state, and make me proud to be a Washingtonian.

well this sure aged well

What a wonderful job these flawless, beautiful Democratic commissioners did.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Who ever thought crossing the Cascade Range that far North was a good idea?? Admittedly that's a product of the last decade's redistricting, but still, WHY??

[Antonio the Sixth]

So what happens now? Does the buck pass to the legislature, or the Supreme Court? Or does the commission just keep trying until we get to the new election cycle?

[Antonio the Sixth]

So what happens now? Does the buck pass to the legislature, or the Supreme Court? Or does the commission just keep trying until we get to the new election cycle?

I have to imagine it's going to the courts. Even if they claim they agreed on something, their secretive, last-second actions have opened themselves up to lawsuits from any aggrieved party who doesn't like the maps they've drawn.

Oh boy. Well, let's see how that goes. Maybe the Courts will be able to draw a better map than any of the 4 originally proposed. Hope springs eternal.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Looks like 6-3-1,  bordering on 6-4

Why the hell are Dems agreeing to a map that doesn’t shore up WA-08?  Schrier is gone in 2022 under this map.

What leverage do they have? Rs won't agree with anything less than a 6-3-1 map. I don't think the court is hawkish enough to go straight 7-3.

Considering that 7-3 actually fits Washington's natural geography better, I don't see what's so "hawkish" about it.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Pathetic. Democrats in most states seem to have learned at least a little from 2010, but WA Dems are still as dumb as ever.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Why did the court allow it

Given the partisanship of the state, it seems fair. You have five Safe D districts, two Safe R and two swing districts - one that leans D and one that leans R. JHB's strength makes WA-03 look more Republican than it actually is.

Washington's natural political geography would entail a 7-3 or even 7-2-1 map. If we let natural geographic bias play to the GOP's favor in states like PA and WI, then I don't see why we shouldn't let it play to the Dems' favor here.

[Antonio the Sixth]

If it's a bipartisan bill, I assume it's a bunch of harmless tweaks?

[Antonio the Sixth]

If it's a bipartisan bill, I assume it's a bunch of harmless tweaks?

That or marginal incumbent protection.

Which incumbent? The only incumbent in need of protection is Schrier, and there's no reason for the GOP to accept protecting her.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Nice, at least now the West is completely filled out on the 538 map.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I mean, Kansas is obviously "Western" if you consider a simple East/West binary. But if you use the standard East/South/Midwest/West divide (the only sensical way to divide the US into macroregions) then I'd argue it's more Midwestern than Western.