The 100 States of America

[Antonio the Sixth]

Franklin

The Eastern part of IRL Tennessee, although for the sake of population balance it extends a bit further than what's traditionally understood as "East Tennessee". Still, though, it has largely taken the political characteristics emblematic of that region - which is to say, it's an ancestral Republican stronghold. Dating back to the Civil War, this area's republican tradition managed to survive through three or four realignments, and is only getting stronger in the current political climate. The state did find it in itself to vote Democrat twice: in 1964 for LBJ by 1 point, and in 1976 for Carter by 4 (and in both cases it's only due to the inclusion of a portion of Central Tennessee in the mix). Clinton came within 3 points in 1992, but that was the last time the state was in any contention, and unsurprisingly the state has zoomed massively to the right since then. In fact, it's been since 2008 the fourth most Republican state in this version of the country - surpassed only by Wyoming and two states we'll meet later. Past allegiances and present trends conspire to make this Titanium R country.

Capital: Knoxville and Chattanooga are the only two realistic options. Both are somewhat off-center, but Knoxville feels a bit less awkward all considered, and since it would also be Franklin's largest city it seems fair.

House Seats (1963): 7
House Seats (2013): 7

VAP Demographics (2010): 90% White

PVI 2008: R+39
PVI 2012: R+41
PVI 2016: R+46
PVI 2020: R+46

Congressional Representation: I don't think Republicans even need to gerrymander in order to get an all-R congressional delegation.

Local Government: I counted a grand total of 3 Democrats serving in the TN State House from districts in this part of the state (out of a total of maybe 40 or so). Yeah, this is a one-party state.


Tennessee

The rest of Tennessee, meanwhile, includes its largest urban areas of Memphis and Nashville and their sizable Black populations, as well as more historically Dem-friendly White voters. It's no surprise then that it's consistently been the more Dem-friendly of the two states. Until 2004, it had only voted for the Republican candidate 3 times: 1972, 1984 and 1988 (that's right guys, we found yet another Carter holdout state, and by a whopping 11 points too!). Even in 2000, when the modern political alignment was well underway, native son Al Gore managed to carry the state by a respectable 4 points. I'm sure he would have liked that. The bottom did eventually fall out for Democrats, of course, and since 2008 it's moved firmly in the Likely R column. Still, it is a state where Democrats still have some degree of local strength, and with the right national environment and a strong candidate they could make a downballot race competitive.

Capital: The state would have two main centers situated at opposite ends, so some compromise seems warranted. Maybe Jackson would work? Although it would be awkward to have two states with the same capital name.

House Seats (1963): 9
House Seats (2013): 9 (+1 in 2023)

VAP Demographics (2010): 69% White, 23% Black

PVI 2008: R+11
PVI 2012: R+12
PVI 2016: R+14
PVI 2020: R+14

Congressional Representation: Bredesen actually won the state by 1.4 points in 2018, despite being ahead in only 3 counties. Would have been hilarious to see it happen irl, as that would be an iconic "land doesn't vote" moment. But regardless, that means it's more likely than not for Dems to come into the 2024 election cycle defending one Senate seat here (Harold Ford Jr. also would have won easily in 2006, meaning he might well be a 3-term incumbent). Of course, it'd be a hard seat to defend, but if MT is still in play then so is this. Meanwhile, the other Senate seat is probably safely in GOP hands, and the Legislature probably made sure to keep Democrats down to just 2 seats.

Local Government: It is remarkable but Democrats might actually narrowly retained their legislative majorities here even after the great 2010 collapse. If so, unless they go the way of the Arkansas Dems and gerrymander themselves out of power out of sheer hubris and stupidity, they'd be in a decent position to hold out a few more years. Eventually their time would come too - maybe in 2016 like KY, or maybe they could push it back to 2018 or 2020. But by now it's pretty clear the GOP would have solid majorities (but maybe not quite veto-proof). A Democratic governor is possible (if IRL KY could do it then this TN certainly could) but it would require a stronger bench than Democrats have displayed lately.


Here's what the states looked like in 2000:


As noted, Gore carried TN by a healthy if not exactly wide margin. Obviously this required solid performances in Memphis and Nashville (he won Shelby County by 14 points and Davidson by 17) but there's also plenty of residual rural strength to be found in the central part of the state. By contrast, Bush carried FR by an impressive margin thanks to >60% performances in the Appalachian parts of the state. Even there, though, you can see the state's Western fringe behaving quite differently from the rest of the state and showing some support for Gore.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Kentucky

The Eastern part of the state gets to keep the original name, being home to the eponymous Kentucky river. Like its Southern neighbor, this state is very much part of the Appalachian cultural sphere, and as such it is Titanium R and has been for a long time. Like its Southern neighbor, it only voted Democratic twice, in 1964 and 1976 (with Clinton coming very close in 1992). However, it's not quite as monolithically Republican as Franklin. It contains some ancestral areas of Democratic strength, especially in the coal mining area in the far East of the state, as well as a decently-sized urban area around Lexington, and Dem-trending Cincinnati suburbs. Still, the bulk of the state is deeply and ancestrally Republican - especially is Southern portion, which routinely gave Republicans >60% scores even in the Solid South days. Of course, nowadays, these regional differences are barely visible at the top of the ticket (the only county Hillary and Biden won was Fayette, home to Lexington). But they can still play a role in local politics, as seen in the most recent gubernatorial elections.

Capital: I guess keeping Frankfort would be reasonable. Ideally I'd like to move the capital a little to the East and South to better reflect the state's overall layout (say, Lexington or Richmond), but realistically it's probably not worth it.

House Seats (1963): 7
House Seats (2013): 6 (-1 in 2023)

VAP Demographics (2010): 92% White

PVI 2008: R+30
PVI 2012: R+34
PVI 2016: R+39
PVI 2020: R+38

Congressional Representation: I think Republicans could go for the kill here and draw a 6-0 (5-0 after redistricting) map. Reasonably, there should be a Dem-leaning Lexington-centered district, but it's probably not hard to crack. Obviously both Senators are Republicans as well.

Local Government: Much like its RL counterpart, KY's legislature probably flipped in 2016, but flipped hard when it did and now Democrats are reduced to a token presence in the legislature. As for the governorship, Bevin would have actually won reelection in this part of the state, winning it by 4 points. Although Beshear narrowly won it in 2023 (by 2 points), I doubt a Democrat would have without the benefit of incumbency. So we probably have a solid GOP trifecta here.


Jackson

Let's name the Western portion of the state, stretching a little awkwardly to encompass Louisville and its suburban ring, after a president who's no doubt fondly remembered around these parts and who negotiated the Jackson Purchase that gave it its shape.This is arguably the more conventionally "Southern" part of the state, albeit not nearly as much as neighboring Tennessee. Wallace won 21% there in 1968, better than his 15% in KY but a far cry from his 40% in TN. This is also somewhat more friendly turf for Democrats, owing both to Louisville but also to some ancestral Democratic strength in the rural parts of the state. Clinton carried it both times, and it came tantalizing close to reelecting Carter in 1980 as well. Still, trends have not been kind to Democrats here, and nowadays the state is safe R at the federal level - but as we've seen, there's some hope for Democrats locally.

Capital: Owensboro seems like a good pick.

House Seats (1963): 7
House Seats (2013): 6 (-1 in 2023)

VAP Demographics (2010): 84% White, 10% Black

PVI 2008: R+18
PVI 2012: R+19
PVI 2016: R+25
PVI 2020: R+23

Congressional Representation: Two R Senators, and Democrats probably get confined to a single House seat centered in Louisville.

Local Government: Beshear would have won JS by 4.5 points in 2019, and since his family is from this part of the state he may well still be its governor (his margin increased to 8 points in 2023). Of course, he would still have to contend with a Republican-dominated legislature, though somewhat less so than IRL (maybe 65-35 or 70-30 rather than 80-20).


And speaking of Beshear, his razor-thin election victory in 2019 provides the best case study of the two states' political geography:


Overall, the two states mirrored each other, with the KY giving Bevin a 4-point edge while the JS gave Beshear a 4.5-point one. The funny aspect of it is that, based on land area, you'd actually expect Beshear to have done better in the Eastern half, where he managed to resurrect ancestral Democratic strength in the Coal Country. This was more than counterbalanced by Bevin's overwhelming scores in the ancestrally Republican Southern part of the state. By contrast, Beshear only won a total of 4 counties in JS, but those were the counties that mattered. His almost 100k vote lead alone was able to counteract Bevin's 65k lead in the rest of the state. Of course, Beshear couldn't have won if he hadn't also kept Bevin's margin in the rural part of the state down to a manageable level around 10 to 20 points, something no Democratic presidential candidate would dream of achieving.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Do you have the 2023 Gov results for Kentucky and Jackson?

Beshear won Kentucky 51-49 and Jackson 54-46. Impressive performance in KY especially.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Louisiana

The Southeastern portion of the state, encompassing its densest and most anciently settled areas with cities such as New Orleans and Baton Rouge. With a substantial Black population and historic Democratic strength, this is one of those Southern states that are just Republican enough to be out of reach at the presidential level but vulnerable downballot. Its electoral history is like that of many Southern states, flipping between JFK, Goldwater, Wallace, Nixon, Carter and Reagan. Clinton did shockingly well there in 1996, winning the state by 13 points. Of course, since then the region's Republican trend has taken its toll. Gore managed to come within 2 points of winning the state, but 4 years later Kerry lost it by 8, and that's exactly where we find Biden's margin in 2020. Obama's 2008 performance seems to have been the Democrats' nadir, and since then the state seems to have stabilized right in the Likely R area.

Capital: Baton Rouge still works.

House Seats (1963): 7
House Seats (2013): 6

VAP Demographics (2010): 60% White, 31% Black

PVI 2008: R+21
PVI 2012: R+13
PVI 2016: R+12
PVI 2020: R+13

Congressional Representation: Based on population numbers, two Black-opportunity seats seem warranted, at least following the Supreme Court's recent jurisprudence. So the incumbent House delegation is probably 5R-1D but about to become 4R-2D, much like IRL. Of course the two Senators are Republicans.

Local Government: John Bel Edwards won the state by double digits both times, so I think he very likely would have been the governor until recently. Of course, this is still a Republican-leaning state, so chances are whoever succeeded him in 2023 is a Republican. Republicans also probably control the state legislature, although it's not completely out of the realm of possibility for Democrats to win a majority in one chamber.


Acadia

Luckily there's another fitting name for the Western bulk of the state, which encompasses the traditional Acandian or Cajun country. Overall, the main difference between the two is that the Acadia is more rural, lacking urban areas on the scale of New Orleans (although Shreveport in the Far North is worth a mention). In this day and age, this automatically translates into being a lot more Republican. Not even the significant Black population, nearly as high as in LA, is enough to provide Democrats much of an opening, suggesting that White voters here are about as right-wing as in MS. As with much of the South, this wasn't always the case, though: the state still voted for Clinton twice (and indeed in 1992 Clinton did better here than in LA, as did Carter in 1976). Still, the state's right-wing roots do run deep, with Goldwater winning 62% there in 1964, and Wallace winning 51%. At this point, it's probably one of of  a growing number states Democrats barely bother to compete in.

Capital: Alexandria, nice and central.

House Seats (1963): 7
House Seats (2013): 5

VAP Demographics (2010): 66% White, 29% Black

PVI 2008: R+32
PVI 2012: R+30
PVI 2016: R+33
PVI 2020: R+36

Congressional Representation: Two Republican Senators, and probably a 4R-1D House delegation (with a creatively-shaped VRA seat around the North of the state being required).

Local Government: JBE amazingly managed to win there by 3 points in 2015, but lost by 15 points in 2019, and either way it's not much of a guide since he and Vitter are both from LA. Barring another lightning strike, both the governorship and the State Legislature are safely in GOP hands.


Figured I'd include both 2015 and 2019, since there are significant differences in the voting patterns:


As noted previously, JBE's 3-point victory in Acadia is truly remarkable for a state that was already 30 points more Republican than the country back then: this is a Doug Jones-level overperformance. The 2015 map shows us what it would take to win a state like that, and clearly it involves running up the score in Shreveport and along a diagonal that goes through the Southeastern part of the state, along which we find the new state capital. In 2019, the state reverted to its default political leanings, giving Rispone a solid majority (although still about 18 points below PVI). By contrast, Louisiana barely shifted between those two races, largely owing to significant Democratic swings in New Orleans suburbs. In both cases, it would have been a complete blowout, which suggests Democrats could still find downballot success in the state going forward.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Incredible work. Let me know if you want me to make you any district maps.

I'd be happy to see any you'd like to make!

LA-SEN 2014 would have been an extremely close Cassidy win in the Eastern part in a runoff where Dems basically gave up btw. Perhaps actual Dem investment could have gotten Landrieu over the top.

Oh, fascinating! I wasn't even thinking of that one, but you're right, she could have survived that year. Not sure what her chances would have been in 2020 though.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Incredible work. Let me know if you want me to make you any district maps.

I'd be happy to see any you'd like to make!

LA-SEN 2014 would have been an extremely close Cassidy win in the Eastern part in a runoff where Dems basically gave up btw. Perhaps actual Dem investment could have gotten Landrieu over the top.

Oh, fascinating! I wasn't even thinking of that one, but you're right, she could have survived that year. Not sure what her chances would have been in 2020 though.

Any places you'd have particular interest in?

I don't have a particular place in mind right now, but if you go over my descriptions of each state's congressional delegation and find one where I have a high uncertainty about how it'd turn out, or where I've made assumptions you think I'm wrong, I'd be interested to see what possibilities you can come up with.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Is the House intentionally much bigger in this TL?

Yes, 800 seats total (although that includes DC and Puerto Rico's population).

[Antonio the Sixth]

Very cool! How does Chattahoochee vote in 2020 and the 2021 runoffs?

Biden won Chattahoochee by 6.3 points (making it not just a flip but a PVI flip as well - it's now 2 points to the left of the country as a whole) and lost Georgia by 12.5 points. Meanwhile Warnock won CH by 8.5 points and lost GA by 11.4, widening the divide even more. I don't have Ossoff's race but I would assume he was slightly behind Warnock in both.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Is the House intentionally much bigger in this TL?

Yes, 800 seats total (although that includes DC and Puerto Rico's population).

I kind of wonder, what apportionment would look like if you kept 435 or had a number like 650. Though that's outside the scope of the main segment of this project in any case.

Feel free to run your own calculations, if you're so inclined. The main upshot though is that with a 435-seat House you'll end up with the vast majority of states getting between 3 and 6 seats. The main reason I doubled the House's size is because I felt that that range was too low for population differences to be accurately reflected.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Anyway Texas is next! It's gonna take a little longer than the others, since it's 6 states instead of 2, but it should be ready in a day or two.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Very cool! How does Chattahoochee vote in 2020 and the 2021 runoffs?

Biden won Chattahoochee by 6.3 points (making it not just a flip but a PVI flip as well - it's now 2 points to the left of the country as a whole) and lost Georgia by 12.5 points. Meanwhile Warnock won CH by 8.5 points and lost GA by 11.4, widening the divide even more. I don't have Ossoff's race but I would assume he was slightly behind Warnock in both.

Very nice, thanks!! Yes, I imagine Ossoff's race was slightly narrower but not by much. This exercise is also a reminder that there are plenty of Dems in rural Georgia.

Do you have the numbers for 2022 Sen/Gov?

I tried to collect the data for 2022 Sen but the data for it is f**ked up in a way that makes it difficult for me to extract (probably the result of including both main election and runoff data in the same file). Hopefully Dave will fix it at some point.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Very cool! How does Chattahoochee vote in 2020 and the 2021 runoffs?

Biden won Chattahoochee by 6.3 points (making it not just a flip but a PVI flip as well - it's now 2 points to the left of the country as a whole) and lost Georgia by 12.5 points. Meanwhile Warnock won CH by 8.5 points and lost GA by 11.4, widening the divide even more. I don't have Ossoff's race but I would assume he was slightly behind Warnock in both.

Very nice, thanks!! Yes, I imagine Ossoff's race was slightly narrower but not by much. This exercise is also a reminder that there are plenty of Dems in rural Georgia.

Do you have the numbers for 2022 Sen/Gov?

I tried to collect the data for 2022 Sen but the data for it is f**ked up in a way that makes it difficult for me to extract (probably the result of including both main election and runoff data in the same file). Hopefully Dave will fix it at some point.

Oh yeah, I noticed that. It’s accurate here: https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state2.php?fips=13&year=2022&f=0&off=3&elect=0&class=3

Nope, if you check out the county data it's all doubled up, like on the main page.

[Antonio the Sixth]

At last, we come to the Lone Star State! And what better way to honor it than to split it into the maximum amount of states it's legally allowed to be split into. The 6-way split actually works really well here, and uncovers some stark regional patterns. However, as 6 is a lot and there's a lot to say about many of these states, I'll have to split this into two posts. For today, enjoy the three states carved out of its Eastern portion of the state, including its two largest metropolitan areas.


Texas

This is the earliest area of Anglo settlement in the state, as well as the most traditionally "Southern" one (tellingly, it's the only one of the six states where Black people outnumber Hispanics). It was quite friendly turf for Democrats for a long time, owing not only to its Solid South ancestry but to the long shadow of LBJ's favorite son effect, which likely carried the state for JFK in 1960, held Goldwater comfortably at bay in 1964, and even allowed HHH to come out ahead of a competitive 3-way race against Nixon and Wallace (39-31-31). Carter also won it easily in 1976, and only narrowly lost it in 1980. Most shocking of all, Clinton won it in 1992. Let me actually include the map here, as it's a notable showcase of the last time a now Titanium R state was competitive:



Clinton prevailed over Bush by just 1 point (with Perot earning a respectable 22.4%) but looking solely at the map, you'd actually expect him to have won more comfortably, by 5 or 10 point. That's right, back in the 90s it looks like the Democratic voter base still skewed rural over here. Looking at the most populous counties, Jefferson voted for Clinton by 20 points, but it was the exception: McLennan, Smith, Brazos and Gregg all voted for Bush (the former by 3 points, the other 3 by around 18). So all told, the mid-sized cities in the state are were the main force keeping the state competitive for Bush, and largely also allowed Dole to prevail four years later. Truly a different era in US politics.

Either way, while TX Democrats seem to have largely survived the post-Civil Rights realignment, they were absolutely bodied by the modern political realignment. Over the late 90s, 00s and 10s, the state zoomed rapidly to the right, going from a narrow Clinton win to a narrow Dole win 27- then 33-point blowouts by Dubya, to Obama losing to Romney by over 40 points. Since then, the margin has remained stable around this staggering level. This has put TX in the same league as Wyoming as far as Titanium R states, with the two locked in a fierce competition for the spot of second-most Titanium R state in the country.

Capital: This area is really devoid of cities of any repute (aside from the infamous Waco, which is too far West to be a good fit). The closest we get is probably Tyler, so let's go with that.

House Seats (1963): 7
House Seats (2013): 7

VAP Demographics (2010): 69% White, 16% Black, 13% Hispanic

PVI 2008: R+42
PVI 2012: R+45
PVI 2016: R+47
PVI 2020: R+48

Congressional Representation: TX inherits the original state's Senate seats, and in fact might be the most natural place for both Cornyn and Cruz to run in (they're both from Houston but I doubt they'd do very well there). For the House, unless the VRA is interpreted to mandate a Black opportunity seat (which would be quite a challenge to draw - Tim, if you're so inclined feel free to try) it's an easy 7-0 Republican delegation.

Local Government: Easy R trifecta with supermajorities. The only area that seems to have any Democratic strength at the local level is Jefferson County, on TX's far Southern tip (I guess it's fitting that even in the most Titanium R area the only place Democrats have any shot is on a coast), but it made up just about 8% of the state's vote, so we could actually see >90% Republican control here.


Dallas

As its name suggests, this state encompasses the Dallas-Fort Worth metro area, the largest in the state and the historical capital of the oil industry. Given this background, it's not too surprising that it was a very Republican-friendly state for most of its history. Since 1960, only two Democratic presidential candidates managed to carry it. One was LBJ, unsurprisingly, but the other was... Joe Biden four years ago. Clearly, muh trendz have swept over this state pretty dramatically in a short time span. Back in the 2000s, Dubya won the state by over 20 points. Obama cut McCain's margin down to just 9 points, but then lost to Romney by 13. It was only Hillary who finally put the state in play, only losing by 4 points in 2016, before Biden flipped that into a 3-point win. The meteoric rise in Democratic fortunes here is one of the main reasons why IRL TX has become tantalizingly within reach, and in this alternative scenario Biden's victory does in fact make a dramatic change in the electoral map for Dems. Still, this flip shouldn't be overstated. DS is still a swing state and perhaps even an R-leaning one, given the way local politics tend to lag presidential results.

Capital: Dallas, duh.

House Seats (1963): 8
House Seats (2013): 16 (+2 in 2023)

VAP Demographics (2010): 54% White, 24% Hispanic, 15% Black

PVI 2008: R+16
PVI 2012: R+17
PVI 2016: R+7
PVI 2020: R+1

Congressional Representation: O'Rourke beat Cruz by 4.5 points in 2018, so it seems the state was ripe for the picking at the Senatorial level. Of course, it's possible that the GOP would have a less damaged incumbent than Cruz, but it's also possible the seat might be open. Plus, there is a strong local candidate in Colin Allred, so I'm going to give this seat to the Democrats. The other, which was last up in 2022, has probably stayed in Republican hands. For the House, there is a very wide range of possible outcomes here. If Republicans managed to hold on to a trifecta, they might have enough wiggle room to keep a 11R-7D or 10R-8D delegation. A fair map would probably yield something close to a tie, but with a lot of marginal seats that could swing either way. Hard to make a prediction without looking at specific maps.

Local Government: Abbott survived by 2 points here in 2022, so I assume an incumbent better suited to the state would probably win by a margin similar to Kemp in GA. There's a decent chance of at least one branch of the legislature having flipped in 2018, though, which might have allowed for fair maps to be in place post-2020 (although it's also possible the R trifecta was restored in 2020). Post-2022, I'd definitely expect narrow Republican majorities in both houses, though the trends must seem pretty ominous for the GOP.


Galveston

The other big Texan metropolis, Houston, gets a state around it, named after Galveston Bay which is its more distinctive feature. Despite the distance between the two cities, much of what I've said about Dallas also applies to Galveston: its presidential voting record is identical to Dallas, all Republican except for 1964 and 2020. It was however traditionally a few points more friendly to Democrats (although this gap has fluctuated wildly, from over 10 points in 1960, 1972 and 1984, to 1-3 points in more recent elections). 2020 was the first year to flip this pattern, with Biden winning Dallas by 3.4 but Galveston by only 0.5. GV is also significantly less White than DS, with almost a third of Latino voters back in 2010. This might explain Biden's somewhat disappointing performance there in 2020, but other trends are still putting significant wind on Democrats' sails.

Capital: Houston

House Seats (1963): 7
House Seats (2013): 15 (+2 in 2023)

VAP Demographics (2010): 43% White, 32% Hispanic, 17% Black

PVI 2008: R+16
PVI 2012: R+16
PVI 2016: R+4
PVI 2020: R+4

Congressional Representation: Galveston skipped 2018 for the Senate, which was probably Dems' best shot. There is a chance a Democrat could have won in 2020, but I doubt they would have defeated a reasonably popular incumbent. In the House, Republicans' hands might be more tied here gerrymandering-wise, given the need to reserve seats for Black and Hispanic voters. A strict adherence to demographics would require those groups to have realistic shots of victory in half the State's seats, although it's unclear if the Courts would force such a reading. Either way, I can imagine Democrats have a floor of at least 8 seats in the state nowadays, with perhaps one or two more being in play under a fair map. Still a lot of uncertainty though.

Local Government: Similarly to Dallas, Democrats might have won control of one or more legislative houses in 2018, but that control would have been precarious, and it's unclear whether they'd have the ability to stop a gerrymander come 2020 (the Hispanic shift to the right complicates things further as well). The Governorship also probably stayed Republican, but Democrats are bound to come back in full force come 2026.


And that's it for today. I'll get to the three Western states soon, I promise.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Challenge accepted. I'll get to drawing when the other Western ones are done.

Here we go!


Alamo

As suggested here a while back, let's name this central Texan state, including its historical capital Austin as well as San Antonio, after the fort that must not be forgotten. With two large and historically progressive (unlike Dallas and Houston which used to be heavily Republican) cities, a diverse ethnic makeup, and less Titanium R rural turf, this is a state Democrats have always had a shot in. Alamo stayed loyal to Dems throughout the 60s and went for Carter in 1976, then flipped to Reagan four years later and stayed Republican throughout the 1980s. In 1992 Clinton narrowly carried it (actually even more narrowly than he carried TX, shockingly), but Dole flipped it in 1996, and it voted for Bush by double-digit margins. Trends started catching up in 2008, when Obama came within half a percentage point of carrying the state, but it was Hillary who finally flipped it in 2016, making Alamo into the elusive Romney-Clinton state. Biden then expanded her 3-point win into a 9-point one, putting the state squarely into the Lean D column and perhaps even approaching Likely D. This actually puts Alamo in a similar place as OTL Virginia (or King, if you want to stay within this scenario), although its trend being more recent means there's more likely to be a lag downballot.

Capital: Let's keep it at Austin, though San Antonio would work just as well.

House Seats (1963): 6
House Seats (2013): 11 (+2 in 2023)

VAP Demographics (2010): 51% White, 37% Hispanic

PVI 2008: R+8
PVI 2012: R+10
PVI 2016: D+1
PVI 2020: D+5

Congressional Representation: AM elected its Senators in 2018 and 2022. O'Rourke won there by a whopping 12 points in 2018, and while he wouldn't be a candidate in this scenario, the seat would still seem ripe for the picking. So that's at least one seat in the Dem column. The other seat is where things get interesting. Hillary did carry the state in 2016, and that year is famous because all states voted the same way for Senate and President. If AM were to follow the pattern, there would be a Dem incumbent in 2022 who'd probably be favored for reelection. That said, we should probably not make too much of the pattern, and the right Republican should have been counted as the favorite in a state that had voted for the party since 1996. So I'm gonna count one seat as Democratic and the other as a tossup. As for the House, Democrats have probably been able to pick up a lot of seats in redistricting, and at this point I could easily see them holding 9 of its 13 seats. The rural areas outside of Austin and San Antonio would provide a solid floor for the GOP, but everything else if fertile ground for Dems.

Local Government: Abbott won the state by a hair in 2018 (when facing a rather perfunctory challenge from Lupe Valdez, and while Dan Patrick lost the state by 8 points and Ken Paxton by 10 at the same time) but lost it by 6 points to O'Rourke in 2022. It seems clear which way the wind is blowing here, and while the right Republican might have managed to hold the state, the money should be on Dems being favored to hold the governorship. Similarly, the trends are strong enough that it's hard to see Democrats not flipping at least one house of the state legislature, and unlike in DS and GV they'd almost certainly be able to hold it in 2020. This means fair maps are guaranteed for this decade, and are certain to only entrench Democratic power further.


Rio Grande

Here we come to perhaps one of the most unique states in this fictional version of the nation. With over three quarters of the voting age population in 2010 being Hispanic/Latino, Rio Grande's political culture would be unlike any other state's, and would likely baffle, outrage or fascinate unfamiliar onlookers. It is interesting to see how RG's political class would handle its large border with Mexico, and how the local population's conflicted feelings on recent immigrants would translate policy-wise. These questions are for people more versed in the local culture than myself to answer. All I can do here is crunch some numbers, and what they say is pretty clear: RG has consistently been the most Democratic part of the state, sticking with Democrats through thick and thin. It gave over two thirds of its vote to favorite son LBJ, and still an absolute majority to HHH, stuck with Carter in 1980 and with Dukakis in 1988. There were only three times its support wavered: the 1972 and 1984 GOPslides, unsurprisingly, but much more impressively 2004, when Dubya managed to prevail over Kerry by just 0.5 points. This impressive win would no doubt have added to the luster of Bush's victory, and definitely crowned him as the ultimate Texas Republican. So let's zoom in to see how he did it:



As expected, Kerry still managed to win the heavily Hispanic Southern tip of the state as well as the key city of El Paso on the far West, but his margins there were anemic even compared to Gore four years earlier (who had won the state by 8 points). Bush managed to rack up the margin in the Whiter, more rural and inland parts of the state, as well as the Northeastern Gulf Coast around Corpus Christi, but also impressively flipped Cameron County (home of Brownsville). This is no doubt a performance modern Republicans will seek to repeat.

They might get a chance to do so in the coming years. After trending rapidly to the Democrats throughout the Obama years and becoming nearly Safe D, RG took a sharp turn to the right in 2020, with Biden winning it by a shockingly anemic 10 points. Much has been made of Biden's weakness among Hispanics, but its implications would be drawn in particularly sharp relief here, and it remains to be seen how far these trends can go. If the state were to be close this year, we might be seeing a radical shift in local politics.

Capital: Laredo seems like the best compromise between centrality and population.

House Seats (1963): 6
House Seats (2013): 8

VAP Demographics (2010): 77% Hispanic, 19% White

PVI 2008: D+13
PVI 2012: D+18
PVI 2016: D+22
PVI 2020: D+6

Congressional Representation: RG's last Senate elections were in 2020 and 2022, both of which might have spelled danger for Democrats. In 2020, Biden's victory, however anemic, would probably have propelled Dems to victory if they had an incumbent or the seat was open (on the off chance a Republican won there in 2014, they might well have snuck by). In 2022, this could have been a golden opportunity for a GOP pickup, but given that the GOP squandered all its golden opportunities that year I wouldn't make too much of it. Overall, between RG and AM I expect Dems to hold 3 of their 4 collective seats, but it's a tossup whether the one GOP Senator is from one or the other. For the House, meanwhile, Democrats have probably gone down from holding 6 or 7 seats back in 2018 to being reduced to 5 or even 4 (though given downballot lag, 5 is more likely).

Local Government: O'Rourke won the state in 2022, but only by a meager 6 points. Given that the state almost certainly has a Democratic incumbent, I would expect them to do better than that barring a Sisolak-tier f**kup. The state legislature too has probably remained in Dem hands (Democrats hold 14 out of maybe 19 or 20 seats in the Texas House), so for now Dems are probably in the clear. We'll see what the future holds though...


Llanos

We end, a bit anticlimactically, with a state whose politics are rather easy to summarize. Llanos, named after the Spanish name for the plains that characterize its geography, is pretty much as Titanium R as it gets. Since 1996, it has consistently been the most Republican state in the country, putting even the likes of Wyoming and nearby Texas to shame. Recent Republican candidates have polled in the high 70s (McCain fell just slightly below at 74.6%) while Democrats have been stuck in the low 20s. You have to go back to 1996 to even find a Democrat winning a single county in it (though if you want to extend it to gubernatorial elections, Bill White randomly won Foard County in 2010). What puts LN over TX as far as Republican partisanship goes is the fact that it lacks the ancestral Democratic tradition found further East: while LBJ himself managed to crack 60% there in 1964, he wasn't able to carry the state for JFK as a running mate or for HHH as the incumbent president. There was only one other time when a Democratic presidential candidate managed to prevail here, and that was 1976. Carter's strength in the Southern Plains was made apparent with his near-win in Oklahoma, but even more impressive was his performance on the other side of the border. Let's take a look:



Looking just at the map, you'd be forgiven for thinking Carter won in a blowout, but fact, his winning margin was just 0.14 points, making LN the closest state that year. Once again, then, we are transported back to a time where Republicans found their strength in urban areas, and Democrats in the open countryside. LN's major cities (such as they are) all show up in blue on this map, even when they're surrounded by red: Lubbock, Amarillo, Abilene, Midland, Odessa and San Angelo all seem to have voted for Ford by solid to overwhelming margins. Meanwhile, the only somewhat populous area Carter seems to have won is Wichita, by just 7 points. On the other hand, his performance in the state's vast rural expanse was nothing short of remarkable, especially in the Eastern and Central parts of the state. Ford's rural strength seems to have been concentrated in the far North (probably the most Plains-like in political culture) and South of the state. Suffice to say, we are unlikely to see a map like this again: even if lightning were to strike and Dems somehow won LN, their areas of strength would probably look more like Ford's than Carter's.

Capital: Lubbock

House Seats (1963): 8
House Seats (2013): 6

VAP Demographics (2010): 68% White, 25% Hispanic

PVI 2008: R+57
PVI 2012: R+61
PVI 2016: R+59
PVI 2020: R+60

Congressional Representation: Nothing to see here. 2 Republican Senators an 6 Republican representatives. I don't think it's possible to draw a Dem-leaning or even swingy district here even with extreme gerrymandering (another challenge for Tim if he's interested).

Local Government: There isn't a single Dem-held state legislative seat in this area. It's possible there might be a few given a larger state legislature, but it's also not impossible to see a Hawaii Senate style situation where at least the upper house is all-Republican. In a context like this, it's quite likely you would see heavy factional splits within the local GOP, with perhaps a business wing and a MAGA wing jockeying for control of local affairs.

[Antonio the Sixth]

To wrap up on Texas, here's the PVI evolution over time:


As you can see, RG was consistently the more Democratic state throughout the period (although if trends continue this might change soon). Until the 1990s, TX and AM competed for second, though since 2000 we saw TX trend massively to the right while AM started zooming rapidly to the left from 2004 onwards. The two city-states always stayed Republican-leaning throughout the period, albeit to varying extent, but have trended sharply to the left since 2016 especially. Meanwhile, LN was always pretty Republican-leaning (except in 1964) but slipped into Titanium R territory in the 1990s and only kept digging from there. A classic tale of urban-rural divergence, I guess.

And here's a complete breakdown of the 2020 results. I considered using the 2018 Senate race instead, but there was very little difference in it outside of RG, and I figured it'd be better to use the more recent and higher-turnout election:


As noted, Biden didn't win a single county in TX and LN, and got accordingly blown out in both. His (very) relative areas of strength were in the couple mid-sized urban centers of each state, but even in these areas he was lucky to crack 30%. He won two counties each in DS and GV, but those are their respective urban cores, and even the suburban rings around them aren't nearly as Republican as they once were, so that was just enough for narrow victories. The turnaround from just a few decades ago is really remarkable. In AM meanwhile, Biden consolidated Obama and Hillary's wins in Travis and Bexar by winning two more counties along the central Austin-San Antonio corridor that forms the core of the state (and generally improved on Hillary's performance in and around it). And finally, we have RG, where Biden's performance was remarkably weak. He actually won fewer counties than Kerry, as seen in the previous map, but was spared his fate thanks to stronger performances around major cities (such as winning Cameron County, or winning El Paso by a 2-1 margin).


So that's a wrap for the South. Next we're moving up to the Midwest!

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/5973a5f1-95f0-4853-ad24-3a5bb54e442b
Here's the completed map
All the distinct sections of IRL TX are done in the same DRA map.

Impressive work!! So PVI-wise we get:
- TX at 7R in 2008, no change by 2020
- DS at 3D-13R in 2008, becoming 6D-3S-7R by 2020 (wow!)
- GV at 5D-1S-9R in 2008, becoming 7D-1S-7R by 2020
- AM at 3D-1S-7R in 2008, becoming 3D-3S-5R by 2020 (not as much change, interesting)
- RG at 7D-1R, becoming 6D-1S-1R by 2020
- LN stays at 6R obviously

So Republicans in DS and GV made what looked like effective gerrymanders back in 2010 but were completely swamped by the trends, and even with new gerrymanders in 2020 they can only hope to preserve the seats they kept. In AM it looks like the Republican gerrymander is still working to some extent, so I think the 2020 redistricting should see Dems gain quite a few seats. In RG it will be interesting if Dems can shore up the areas they're losing ground in, or if they'll just accept a swingy district to shore up their other incumbents.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Erie

Let us now begin our our Midwest with the state, carved out of IRL Ohio, which borders Lake Erie and takes its name from it. You might remember Erie from my previous Alternate States project, but this version is smaller and more compact (not stretching as far east as Toledo or as far south as Canton or Youngstown), and correspondingly is even more Democratic. In fact, over the surveyed period, it has a near-spotless Democratic record, having only voted for the Republican candidate in 1972 and 1984 (and in the latter case by just 600 votes). Interestingly, while it's been loyally Democratic, it was never overwhelmingly so: its PVI peaked near D+20 in 2004, but it was usually somewhere between D+10 and D+15. Something has been happening in the last two election cycles, though, with the state moving from Likely D in 2012 to nearly swing state status in 2020. It seems like the Republican trend in white working class areas, combined with lower Black turnout, is increasingly threatening Democratic hegemony in the state. Whereas Obama won most countries in the state, Biden only won Cuyahoga (Cleveland) and Summit (Akron) in 2020. It remains to be seen if these trends will continue, and given the downballot lag Dems are probably safe for now, but I'd certainly expect some nervousness in the local leadership.

Capital: It's gotta be Cleveland.

House Seats (1963): 13
House Seats (2013): 8 (-1 in 2023)

VAP Demographics (2010): 78% White, 16% Black

PVI 2008: D+14
PVI 2012: D+17
PVI 2016: D+9
PVI 2020: D+5

Congressional Representation: ER's Senators were last elected in 2020 and 2022. The only Republican to win a Senate race in recent memory was Rob Portman in 2016, but he was an incumbent, and it's doubtful that he would have had an easy race against a well-organized state Democratic party. Given Tim Ryan won by 12 points, I'm going to assume the state still has two Dem Senators. As for the House, I'd expect at least a light Dem gerrymander. In the current state of things, they'd have to concede at least 2 seats (possibly 3 - Timmy might try to find out) to the GOP, but that's a fair price to pay to safeguard the other 5-6 (or 4-5 post-resdistricting).

Local Government: A Republican winning a governor's race is possible at this point, but it would still be a long shot. DeWine did it as a popular incumbent in 2022, but an open seat would be a very different matter. As for the State Legislature, Dems currently seem to hold a bare majority of State House seats (13 out of 24 or 25), but that's under a pretty obvious GOP gerrymander. A reasonable Dem gerrymander should be enough to guarantee working Democratic majorities for the time being.


Ohio

The state that keeps the Ohio name is understandably the one bordered by the Ohio River for most of its length. The bulk of this state is what we commonly refer to as "Appalachian Ohio", a largely rural and impoverished region - but for the sake of having a sufficient population, I had to stretch it further North to include major (post)industrial cities such as Canton and Youngstown. Thus, this state ends up an interesting mix of urban and rural populism. This unique balance has made of Ohio a pretty consistent swing state for most of its history, its PVI usually ranging between D+7 and R+5. Swing state doesn't always mean bellwether, as for example it voted for Nixon in 1960 but HHH in 1968 (showcasing the latter's superior Rust Belt appeal). Still, from 1972 to 2008 OH did a pretty good job of picking the EC winner in every election. Throughout the Obama and Bush years, it would have been one of the most hotly contested states in the country, to the point that it's impossible to tell who would have won given heavy campaigning on both sides. The Republican candidate came out ahead in 2000, 2004 and 2012 by 0.53, 0.18 and 0.44 points, respectively, while in 2008 Obama prevailed by a whole 2 percentage points. But let's look at 2012, the last in this string of razor-thin Republican wins:



Unsurprisingly, the contrast between the urban, industrial North and the rural South appears clearly. Obama ran up the score in Trumbull and Mahoning County, and won Stark as well (the three most populous in the state). Romney, meanwhile, won everything else except for Athens with its large college population. However, crucially, he didn't completely dominate the area, only reaching 60% in a handful of county. There's even a string of fairly rural counties in the far South of the state that almost voted for Obama, an impressive performance for a Democrat in centuries. Just 5000 more votes or so, and Obama would have prevailed in the state as a whole.

Of course, this is all ancient history in the modern political era. No state symbolizes Muh Trends better (and more literally) than Ohio, who trended Republican by a full 24 points in 2016. You'd have to go back to 1984 to find a stronger year-on-year Republican trend (though you had a stronger Democratic one with Hawaii in 2008). Even more shocking is the fact that the trend doesn't seem to be over, with 2020 seeing a further 7-point shift to the right. Overnight, OH went from being a swing state to Titanium R territory, putting even places like Iowa to shame. Biden won just over a third of the vote there in 2020.

Capital: I know Athens was suggested, but a lefty college town is just not the right cultural fit for this quintessentially #populist state. I'm going to go with Zanesville instead.

House Seats (1963): 9
House Seats (2013): 6 (-1 in 2023)

VAP Demographics (2010): 92% White

PVI 2008: R+5
PVI 2012: R+4
PVI 2016: R+29
PVI 2020: R+35

Congressional Representation: Ohio keeps its original Senate seats, so 2018 and 2022 were the last cycles they were up in. Barring a Jon Tester tier Dem incumbent, though, it's hard to see it making a difference in the outcome. Even Sherrod Brown lost by 6 points in 2018, so two Republican seats are pretty much a guarantee. 6 Republican seats in the House (5 after redistricting) are also pretty much a guarantee: all the GOP would have to do is make sure Athens is drowned in a sea of Titanium R rural areas.

Local Government: Cordray lost the state by 17 points in 2018, so it's very hard to see a Dem win the governorship either (if that happened it would be a LA 2015 or KY 2019 tier event, and even then those were off-year elections). As for the state legislature, we could easily see a split comparable to West Virginia.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Congressional Representation: ER's Senators were last elected in 2020 and 2022. The only Republican to win a Senate race in recent memory was Rob Portman in 2016, but he was an incumbent, and it's doubtful that he would have had an easy race against a well-organized state Democratic party. Given Tim Ryan won by 12 points, I'm going to assume the state still has two Dem Senators. As for the House, I'd expect at least a light Dem gerrymander. In the current state of things, they'd have to concede at least 2 seats (possibly 3 - Timmy might try to find out) to the GOP, but that's a fair price to pay to safeguard the other 5-6 (or 4-5 post-resdistricting).

Playing around here and I think the 5-2 vs 4-3 split comes down to whether or not there needs to be two Black VRA districts. If it is determined that you only need 1, I think 5-2 is easy. If you need two, it gets harder.

Based on Erie's demographics it's gotta be no more than one. Two would be a significant OVERrepresentation of the Black population.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Hamilton

Continuing along the former state's Southern border, we find the state centered on the Cincinnati and Dayton urban areas. Naming this state after the Federalist titan of early post-independence politics made sense, as it's the name of its most populous county as well as seeming to fit the vibe quite well. Hamilton is the epitome of Midwestern conservatism, boasting an unbroken Republican voting streak since 1968 and a Republican PVI for all the period I have data for (and above R+10 since 1984). As such, there's not very much to say about HM's politics. Even the trends that swept over the rest of the state so dramatically seem to have had very little effect on it: it trended to the right by a mere two points in 2016 and then retraced about a third of that shift in 2020. Cincinnati itself has been trending increasingly Democratic, but Dayton's evolution has been more ambiguous, and the exurban counties around those urban center have if gotten markedly more Republican. Thus, the end result remains a reliable (though not overwhelming) Republican stronghold.

Capital: Dayton seems right.

House Seats (1963): 10
House Seats (2013): 7

VAP Demographics (2010): 82% White, 13% Black

PVI 2008: R+17
PVI 2012: R+15
PVI 2016: R+17
PVI 2020: R+17

Congressional Representation: Sherrod Brown lost HM by 7 points in his 2006 landslide, so it's pretty clear Democrats don't have a shot in a Senate election around here. As for the House, one urban Cincinnati district is inevitable (it might have to be a Black opportunity district as well given VRA constraints). A fair map would probably have another Dem-leaning seat in Hamilton County, and perhaps another one around Dayton, but a GOP gerrymander could probably ensure 6 solidly Republican seats.

Local Government: Again, I don't see much of an opening for a Democrat to win a gubernatorial race here. State legislature wise, Dems seem to be holding about 30% of the seats in the State House seats in the area, so Republicans might have slight veto-proof supermajorities (not that it would matter).


Columbia

This state doesn't have an obvious geographic feature to name it from, so I figured it would be fun to pick the name Columbia, both in reference to its largest city but also as a tribute to the name's cultural significance in early American history. Geographically, this state is a bit of an odd beast, as due to population balance concerns it's left encompassing very disparate areas. To the South, you have the large and growing Columbus metro area, which has trended significantly to the left in recent decades. To the North, you have the old working-class stronghold of Toledo, still overwhelmingly Democratic but undergoing trends comparable to those in nearby Erie. Finally, to the East, we have some of the most ancestrally Republican turf in all the Midwest. Adding it all up, the rural and suburban Republican areas are usually enough to overwhelm Columbus and Toledo, resulting in a state that can usually be relied to vote Republican. Until 2008, the only Democrat who won it was LBJ in 1964. However, trends in the 90s and 00s started to favor Democrats, allowing Clinton to come within a point of Dole there in 1996, and finally allowing Obama to carry the state by 2 points in 2008, and even more impressively to prevail again in the hard-fought 2012 election. Let's look at how that played out:



Like with OH last time, we have a pretty obvious case of a state being a lot closer than land area would suggest - this time allowing Obama to actually prevail on the back of just 5 countries: of course the two key ones were Franklin (Columbus) and Lucas (Toledo), which he won 60% and 65% of the vote in respectively and racked up a 200k vote lead (he won the state by 20K). However, it's also notable that he managed to win a few more counties on the Erie shore as well, and generally kept Romney under 60% in most of the Republican parts of the state (although she still cleared up in Columbus' Northern suburbs as well as in the Eastern part of the state). As this might well have been one of the swing states that decided the election, it would have seen intense campaigning on both sides, and Obama's 1.2-point victory would have sealed the fate of the election.

So, in the mid 2010s, it seemed CL was destined to become a prime swing state. Then, 2016 happened, undoing a decade's worth of trends. Democrats' gains around Columbus were easily swamped by the rest of the state's strong Republican swing, and 2020 only continued on the same trajectory. Until and unless the Columbus area starts voting more like the Chicago one, or trends in the Northern part of the state can be at least partially reversed, Democrats will have a hard time winning statewide.

Capital: Columbus, duh.

House Seats (1963): 11
House Seats (2013): 9

VAP Demographics (2010): 83% White, 10% Black

PVI 2008: R+5
PVI 2012: R+3
PVI 2016: R+10
PVI 2020: R+11

Congressional Representation: CL's Senate elections last took place in 2018 and 2022. Sherrod Brown actually won by 8 points there in 2018, higher than his statewide margin. And given that he won in all three of his runs, it's quite possible to see a Democrat having won the state in a very Dem year like 2006 or 2012, thus granting them the incumbency advantage. I think that's enough grounds to give one of the two Senate seat to the Dems, although they'll have to fight hard to keep it this year. The other is probably safely in GOP hands for now. As for the House, I think Republicans would realistically have to concede 3 seats to Democrats (two in Columbus and one in Toledo) but they'll make sure the remaining 6 are as Safe R as they possibly can.

Local Government: Democrats haven't had much luck with gubernatorial elections here. Cordray lost by 3 points and I doubt a different Democrat would have prevailed even in 2018. So chances are the GOP still holds the Governor's Mansion this year. The state legislature is also gerrymandered to ensure GOP majorities (looks like they have a 19-12 edge in State House seats in the area) so it's a fairly easy trifecta.

[Antonio the Sixth]

To wrap up the Ohio split, let's look at the last reasonably close statewide election. You have to go back to the 2018 gubernatorial election, where Mike DeWine beat Richard Cordray by 3.7 points:



Cordray managed to win Erie by 14 points, a better performance than Hillary or Biden but not exactly on par with where Democrats need to be in the state. After that, his best state was Columbia, which he lost by just 3 points despite only winning two counties there. It is strange to think he could have won CL and still lost the overall race. Meanwhile, DeWine cleared up in OH, albeit by a margin far weaker than you'd expect of a Republican nowadays (for example, JD Vance won it by 27 points just four years later). Finally, Hamilton was only a tad less DeWine, still giving him a double-digit lead. Hamilton County's 10-point Cordray win was easily overpowered by the rest of the state's heavy Republican lean.


And as always to conclude, here's the PVI chart for all four states:


Historically, the division was pretty consistent, with ER as a strongly Democratic state, OH as a swingy but typically Dem-leaning state, and HM and CL being fairly heavily Republican (they traded spots for which was the most Republican for a while until 1988 when HM clearly established itself in that spot). OH began trending markedly to the right starting in 2000, and then saw the absolute collapse of Democratic support in 2016 that turned it Safe R almost overnight, with 2020 only making matters worse. The 2016-2020 double whammy was also a severe hit for Democrats in ER, bringing it into swing state territory for the first time in God knows how long. HM and CL were less affected by these trends, being already quite Republican, though CL has moved away from the swing state territory it seemed to be entering during the Obama years.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Not a fan of naming states (or anything tbh) after those guilty of genocide.

I mean, I doubt Antonio is, either, but it's a matter of practicality.

Yeah, I'm not naming these states based on my own political predilections (otherwise I certainly wouldn't have named one Jackson and another Hamilton). I'm trying to imagine what kind of places would fit these states given American political culture.

...although now that you mention it, naming one of the two Indiana states after Debs is quite tempting.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, this works really well! It's not even that egregious looking, but it should keep those 5 seats in Democratic hands for the decade barring a huge upset.

2020 or 2010 data?

It's gotta be 2020, since ER would have 8 seats for the 2010 round of redistricting.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Here is what a fair map would look like for Ohio:



1. Youngstown-Warren R+4
2. Athens-Steubenville R+20
3. Canton-New Philadelphia R+12
4. Zanesville-Wooster R+23
5. Chillicothe-Portsmouth R+26

That is a really nice looking map. It certainly would be nice if Republicans left Warren-Youngstown as its own community of interest district. Unfortunately, if the seat is really just R+4 I'm sure they'd crack it like in one of your maps above. I think they'd probably be willing to risk a not-totally crazy gerrymander, more like your second map. There aren't many Ohio Dems who can recreate Brown's performance down there (heck, it's an open question if Brown himself can).

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/08c8bab6-4c21-40a6-af96-8792a9573616
Kentucky districts
went with fair-ish maps in both cases.

Very nice maps, though those are probably too fair for Republican-controlled states to implement.

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/08c8bab6-4c21-40a6-af96-8792a9573616
Kentucky districts
went with fair-ish maps in both cases.

Very nice maps, though those are probably too fair for Republican-controlled states to implement.

My thinking is that Kentucky's existing redistricting guidelines apply in both and cracking Lexington and particularly Louisville is difficult to do effectively while operating within those parameters. So it's a bit of a CoI map, though there's also an element of mutual incumbent protection involved (both states will have delegations of one Dem the rest being R). Trump+3 is enough to function as a Likely R seat especially if you have a strong R incumbent in there.

Alright, that's reasonable enough. I'll defer to people more knowledgeable than me on the internal dynamics of any RL state.

Anyway, it's time to continue our tour of the Midwest!