Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1 (user search)
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  Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1 (search mode)
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Author Topic: Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1  (Read 211357 times)
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,314
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« on: November 06, 2018, 08:26:38 PM »
We're f**ked. Everything's f**ked.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,314
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #1 on: November 07, 2018, 08:54:32 PM »
Quote from: ajc0918 on November 07, 2018, 08:48:08 PM
Quote from: Gass3268 on November 07, 2018, 08:46:18 PM
Democratic Super Lawyer is getting involved in Florida. Looks like he'll have an announcement of some sorts tomorrow.



A path to victory for Nelson exists but it's narrow and likely involves provisional ballots.

Is there any estimate of how many outstanding ballots are left in FL at this point?
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,314
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #2 on: November 07, 2018, 11:22:30 PM »
Quote from: Trounce-'em Theresa on November 07, 2018, 11:11:12 PM
Quote from: Beet on November 07, 2018, 11:03:24 PM
Quote from: Senator Rosen on November 07, 2018, 10:56:30 PM
Quote from: Beet on November 07, 2018, 10:47:59 PM
Quote from: Gass3268 on November 07, 2018, 10:43:02 PM


Well we've finally taken Dave Reichert's congressional district. This was the source of a very guttural and heart-wrenching wail of disappointment from a coworker of mine after election 2008. But now, the ghost of Darcy Burner's political career can finally Rest In Peace.

Ah, I remember the Darcy Burner days. Luckily her losses happened in otherwise amazing nights for Democrats, so it was hard to feel too bad about it. Tongue

As I see it, this race was an epic battle between two titanic forces, the Democrats' losing streak in WA-08 (an unstoppable force) and Dino Rossi's losing streak (an immovable object). Tongue

I've seen the same said, writ large, about the Democrats' blue red wave in the House and Trump's red blue firewall in the statewide races. It seems like a reasonable narrative, and while it's obviously terrible news for the integrity of American society, it might be good news for democracy qua democracy since turnout was so high.

Yeah, whatever else can be said about this midterm, the historically high turnout is worth celebrating.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,314
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #3 on: November 09, 2018, 12:32:08 AM »
Quote from: ag on November 09, 2018, 12:00:23 AM
Quote from: Averroës on November 08, 2018, 11:55:23 PM
The experience of American democracy is much like that of living in an old, decrepit house in which nothing has been updated or replaced for years, or even decades. Conditions are uncomfortable and ugly, and few things work as intended. But it's rare for anything to be improved, because the tenants are too senile, lazy, impoverished, or stubborn to tolerate change. (And of course the landlord doesn't care as long as the rent check arrives on time each month.)

I know. And, in fact, it is hard to repair: each time you try to replace a particular tube, you risk the whole house collapsing. In this particular case, the only thing that prevents US elections from massive hacking is how disorganised they are: any hacker would have to separately deal with hundreds of completely independent systems. So, trying to make any centralised improvements may only make things worse. But, frankly, ballot design is not such a horribly complicated task - you do not need a Harvard Ph.D. to come up with something more sensible.

Well, the obvious fix to that is to discontinue all voting machines and move entirely to paper ballots, and have them be manually counted by real human beings from the start. You know, like most countries do.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,314
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #4 on: November 09, 2018, 03:54:32 PM »
Any word on the AZ state legislative races that were said to potentially flip?
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,314
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #5 on: November 09, 2018, 08:42:58 PM »
So first CA flip post-election night? Woot!

Hopefully Porter is next.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,314
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #6 on: November 10, 2018, 07:29:52 PM »
Do we know how many Batch B votes are actually left? If there were 200K left yesterday, and at least 50K of those were counted today, the math becomes basically impossible for McSally.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,314
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #7 on: November 10, 2018, 07:54:52 PM »
Yeah, that means there are at most 180K McSally-friendly votes left. She'd need to win those by 15-16 points just to pull even, and that's not counting the remaining votes that favor Sinema.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,314
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #8 on: November 10, 2018, 09:47:53 PM »
Any reason why the latest OC returns have been less Democratic than the previous couple days? Is it something we should extrapolate from, or is it just noise and we can expect another good batch tomorrow?

I really want Katie Porter to pull this off.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,314
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #9 on: November 10, 2018, 10:04:21 PM »
Quote from: Thatkat04 on November 10, 2018, 09:58:07 PM
Quote from: Secret Cavern Survivor on November 10, 2018, 09:47:53 PM
Any reason why the latest OC returns have been less Democratic than the previous couple days? Is it something we should extrapolate from, or is it just noise and we can expect another good batch tomorrow?

I really want Katie Porter to pull this off.

Didnt the margin between Porter and Walters shrink by 1% today?

That was yesterday. Today it shrunk by like a dozen of votes.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,314
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #10 on: November 10, 2018, 10:06:05 PM »
Quote from: Pope Michael Bolton on November 10, 2018, 10:02:14 PM
Quote from: Secret Cavern Survivor on November 10, 2018, 09:47:53 PM
Any reason why the latest OC returns have been less Democratic than the previous couple days? Is it something we should extrapolate from, or is it just noise and we can expect another good batch tomorrow?

I really want Katie Porter to pull this off.

More importantly, Cisneros really needs to win.  Somewhere along the line I got more invested in that race than like 80% of competitive house seats. 

I care about Katie a lot more than Cisneros, but I hope they both win of course.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,314
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #11 on: November 12, 2018, 06:30:54 PM »

FFS
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,314
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #12 on: November 12, 2018, 10:22:44 PM »
Quote from: Pericles on November 12, 2018, 09:57:16 PM
Just let Pelosi have it. Speaker isn't the same as running for President, congressional leaders don't need to be popular(look at Mitch McConnell, everyone hates him but he's good at his job). She is the best by far, she has a proven record and you don't want to put up a lightweight against McConnell and Trump. I had somewhat bought into the Pelosi being a liability line, but the Democrats won the election anyway, and Pelosi will probably retire in 2021(certainly if Democrats win the House), so she is just needed to make sure this Democratic majority is put to good use. She earned it too. The Democrats shouldn't shoot themselves in the foot on Day One, Speaker Pelosi is the best outcome.

This 100%.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,314
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #13 on: November 13, 2018, 02:08:47 PM »
So when are we going to get the ME-2 redistribution?
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,314
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #14 on: November 13, 2018, 03:55:51 PM »
Quote from: Representative MAINEiac4434 on November 13, 2018, 03:13:16 PM


I mean, the appeal will be thrown out just like the first suit was.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,314
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #15 on: November 13, 2018, 09:50:51 PM »
YESSSSSSS KATIE!!! Purple heart Purple heart Purple heart

MY QUEEN IS ALIVE
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,314
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #16 on: November 13, 2018, 10:05:26 PM »
Yeah, UT-4 is gonna come down to the wire.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,314
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #17 on: November 13, 2018, 10:58:08 PM »

Oh boy. How many left to count?
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,314
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #18 on: November 13, 2018, 11:08:58 PM »
Quote from: Arch on November 13, 2018, 11:04:41 PM
They're not certain about how much is left either

Do we have some rough numerical estimate at least? There would need to be at least 10K to have the slightest chance of flipping the result (and probably more like 15K).
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,314
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #19 on: November 14, 2018, 01:59:25 PM »
lol, basically
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,314
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #20 on: November 14, 2018, 04:56:11 PM »
Quote from: Torranski on November 14, 2018, 04:44:26 PM
Lo, the final ballots have arrived:



WHAT

WHY DON'T THEY JUST F**KING COUNT THEM NOW AND BE DONE WITH IT
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