Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein

[Antonio the Sixth]

Interestingly, Benitio Mussolini won the most votes in the City Council elections in Rome.

The granddaughter of former Italian Dictator Benito Mussolini has won a second term as city councillor in Rome, reportedly bringing in more votes than any other candidate.

Rachelle Mussolini belongs to the far-right political party Brothers of Italy, which has roots in postwar neofascism and, after formerly being somewhat of a fringe party, is rising in popularity.

This year, Mussolini racked in 8,200 votes, compared to only 657 in 2016. Support for Brothers of Italy has gone up, even in the left-leaning northern part of the country.

A perfect example of what is mentioned above: that the polls are right in that Lega no longer monopolizes the Right. FdI on the rise, and likely more in the south and centre rather than the north.

I mean, assorted creeps and loons topping the individual preference vote is not rare at all in Italy, and it's not super meaningful per se. The list vote is far more indicative (and yes, it shows FdI as the most voted party in the Michetti coalition, which was to be expected).

[Antonio the Sixth]

I've been disenfranchised twice because of this stupid age restriction (I was a few days short of 25 when the 2018 election happened) and this comes just too late for me, but glad to see this injustice corrected.

On the other hand, this makes Italian bicameralism even more useless than it already was...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Turnout at noon was 9.73%, down from 12.18% in the first round. This doesn't bode well...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Turnout in at 7pm:
- Rome: 25.28% (-4.22 from the first round)
- Turin: 25% (-4.29)
- All cities: 26.71% (-4.94)

[Antonio the Sixth]

Turnout in at 7pm:
- Rome: 25.28% (-4.22 from the first round)
- Turin: 25% (-4.29)
- All cities: 26.71% (-4.94)

11pm:

Rome: 30.87% (-5.95)
Turin: 32.61% (-3.89)

All cities: 33.33% (-6.53)

Massive overanalysis alert, but the turnout dropoff seems to have recovered somewhat in Turin, but only gotten worse in Rome and most of the rest of Italy. Don't know if that means anything, but that might matter if it continues.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Polls have just closed, and SWG apparently feels comfortable calling Rome for Gualtieri. They've also all-but-called Turin for Lo Russo, and Trieste is apparently the one major city that's most uncertain (despite the right-wing incumbent having a huge advantage in the first round). Same projections from RAI.

Still early, and projections have had an egg on their face before, but if so that is a complete victory for the left.

[Antonio the Sixth]

250 polling stations out of 919 in Turin reported

Lo Russo is at 59%

http://www.comune.torino.it

Huh, this is going fast this time. Good to know.

SWG now is projecting both Gualtieri and Lo Russo to win 57-59%. I guess we'll have a little derby to see who wins by more.

[Antonio the Sixth]

250 polling stations out of 919 in Turin reported

Lo Russo is at 59%

http://www.comune.torino.it

Huh, this is going fast this time. Good to know.

SWG now is projecting both Gualtieri and Lo Russo to win 57-59%. I guess we'll have a little derby to see who wins by more.

Looks like Gualtieri is winning the derby right now, at least according to SWG. Latest projections have him at 59.8% vs 58.6% for Lo Russo.

Meanwhile, no projection for Trieste yet, but unofficial sources from the left side have their candidate Russo (no relation) at 48%.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Gualtieri speaks already.

[Antonio the Sixth]

We have final turnout figures for Rome: 40.68% (-7.86). Could've been worse, at least both Gualtieri and Michetti probably increased their raw vote count from the first round (you'd think that always happens, but there are famous examples when it didn't). Still absolutely pathetic though. Gualtieri will be the mayor of about a quarter of the voters.

[Antonio the Sixth]

And for Turin: 42.14% (-5.94). This time the right-wing candidate Damilano might actually have won fewer votes than in the first round. The runoff system is really broken.

Among all the cities with runoffs, turnout was 43.94% (-8.73).

[Antonio the Sixth]

Cosenza have finished counting


Francesco Caruso (centre-left) 57,81
Francesco Caruso (centre-right) 42,19   

Yes, they have the same name.

hahahahahaha, amazing

[Antonio the Sixth]

Seems like Dipiazza has won in Trieste. Shame, it would have been quite a coup for the left to take the city (especially since it's been such a center of anti-vaccine passport agitation in the past few days).

[Antonio the Sixth]

Whoa, I had the centre-left favoured in both Rome and Turin but I would not have expected such landslides for Gualtieri and Lo Russo. Almost 60% for both! Now the centre-left will control the mayoralty in all of the six largest Italian cities (the ones over 500k people) except for Genoa, which is mildly ironic as Genoa is the most historically leftist one.

Aside from Trieste it seems that the only other mayoral runoff in a provincial seat that the centre-left lost was Benevento, home of our old friend Clemente Mastella. Of course, knowing him, he might as well switch to the "centre-left" again one of these days too...

In his victory interview with La7 he had some choice words for Letta and started talking up about "building a great center" with Renzi and Calenda, so I wouldn't count on him being particularly helpful for the left.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Beautiful, thank you!

Definitely looks like the Calenda -> Gualtieri transfer was a lot stronger than the Raggi -> Gualtieri one. I guess that's not too surprising.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Thanks for the update, Battista. I edited the title to more accurately reflect the current focus.

I really can't see Berlusconi getting in, even though all three right-wing parties seem to be lining up behind him. He's obviously not acceptable for PD and M5S, and even if he somehow made a deal with Renzi, it wouldn't be enough to secure a majority. But he seems to be really trying to go for it, so who knows. It would be kinda hilarious if he got his wish now, after so many years of gunning for it.

Draghi is in a weird spot because on paper he's a great candidate who would be broadly acceptable to all, but him being PM right now means that his election would trigger a government crisis, which most parties would rather avoid (ironically, this has meant that Meloni, the leader of the only major party that doesn't support Draghi, is openly in favor of electing him as a way to have new elections).

So yeah, neither is too likely to go through. The third name you hear a lot about is Giuliano Amato, which is the name PD seems to be converging around (ironically, he was Berlusconi's preferred candidate in 2015). But he doesn't seem to be getting any traction beyond PD.

[Antonio the Sixth]

What would happen to FI if Berlusconi becomes President?

My dad joked re: the aforementioned deal with Renzi, that in exchange Berlusconi might let him take the leadership of FI.

In all seriousness, it probably collapses into irrelevance. It's already well on its way there.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Anyway, we now have an official date for the presidential election: the first vote will be held on the 24th of January at 15. Generally speaking there are two votes per day, although sometimes only one. As a reminder, in the first three votes a 2/3 majority is required to elect the new President for the Republic; from the fourth vote on, an absolute majority is enough.

I think this time they have only planned one vote per day, due to COVID safety precautions (don't ask me for details, I just heard it).

And on a related note, there are about 40 Electors who are sick with COVID right now, and there's no procedure for allowing them to vote, which might potentially skew the result...

[Antonio the Sixth]

On another note, Azione and +Europa have joined together in a "federation" and can be considered for most intents and purposes a single entity now. The first opinion poll I saw with Azione-+Europa constituting a single option had it at around 5%. Calenda was confident that it can reach 10% - I would not be so sure, but mid single digits would already be a respectable showing.

They'll be lucky to even get 5%, especially if they stay out of any electoral coalition. Out-of-coalition small parties almost always underperform their polling.

[Antonio the Sixth]

UPDATE!

Silvio Berlusconi just officially renounced to his candidacy for President of the Republic, inviting the centre-right coalition to find another common name. We have no certainty on who this name could be but I'd think Alberti Casellati is the most likely. The coalition also seems now unified in wanting to keep Draghi as President of the Council and preventing his election.

On the other side, the centre-left and M5S don't seem to have a real common alternative, except to keep attempting a deal on Draghi. Their main point is clearly wanting to avoid electing a President from the right, which they believe they have the numbers for.

Casellati would be a fine President honestly. Of course she made some biased decisions as president of the Senate, but that's really true of all presidents of a legislative chamber, and generally she's comported herself with great institutional dignity. And honestly, yeah, having a woman President would be nice at long last.

[Antonio the Sixth]

First Round results are in, and unsurprisingly it's a landslide for "Blank":

Blank 672
Paolo Maddalena 36
Sergio Mattarella 16
Marta Cartabia 9
Roberto Cassinelli 7
Antonio Tasso 6
Guido De Martini 6
Silvio Berlusconi 6
Ettore Rosato 5
Marco Cappato 5
Umberto Bossi 5
Others 154
Null 49
Didn't vote 32


Next vote tomorrow at 3pm.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Today the centre-right is expected to publish a list of possible names for the presidency, which should include people such as Casellati, philosopher Marcello Pera, and former prosecutor Carlo Nordio (especially well-liked by FdI). Another name that has come up recently is former Minister of Foreign Affairs Franco Frattini, who is rumoured to be liked by both Salvini and Conte. I am less sure on what is happening on the centre-left but Letta just remarked we need an "Atlanticist" President in relation to the current news about Russia and Ukraine. In the actual round of voting we will in all likelihood see another landslide of blank ballots of course, although I do wonder whether more random electors will opt for Maddalena or Mattarella just because.

Someone ring up the Classical Liberal Atlanticist Mod Faction! One of them should run.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Second Round results:

Blank 527

Paolo Maddalena 39
Sergio Mattarella 39
Renzo Tondo 18
Roberto Cassinelli 17
Ettore Rosato 14
Umberto Bossi 12
Giancarlo Giorgetti 8
Luigi Manconi 8
Marta Cartabia 8
Giuseppe Moles 7
Silvio Berlusconi 7
Nicola Gratteri 6
Pier Luigi Bersani 6
Serafino Generoso 6
Cesare Pianasso 5
Others 213

Null 38

Didn't vote 31


Quite a few more votes this time around, but still all meaningless. Party leaders are still slowly working toward an agreement, and there should be a meeting tomorrow that might start resolving things. Still, who knows.

Tomorrow we'll have the third round of voting, which will be the final one to require a qualified 2/3rds majority. Starting with the fourth round, only a majority will be required. This should encourage parties to get a bit bolder.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Third Round, the last one that requited a 2/3rds majority. Once again it went nowhere though.

Blanks 412

Sergio Mattarella 125
Guido Crosetto 114
Paolo Maddalena 61
Pier Ferdinando Casini 52
Giancarlo Giorgetti 19
Luigi Manconi 8
Marta Cartabia 8
Pier Luigi Bersani 7
Umberto Bossi 7
Clemente Mastella 6
Marco Doria 6
Marco Cappato 6
Giuseppe Moles 6
Mario Draghi 5
Others 121

Null 22
Didn't vote 24

A few more people coming out of the woodwork, most of all the FdI and Lega contingent flexing a bit by converging on Crosetto, but that still means very little. Mattarella must no doubt be annoyed to be getting so many votes though.

The latest news is that Salvini is meeting with the eminent jurist Sabino Cassese, who on paper seems like an unimpeachable presidential candidate, but might have taken stances that put him at odds with Draghi. We'll see if anything comes out of it.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Update: Lega sources have denied meeting with Cassese. Meanwhile Letta put a veto on Casellati and Conte put a veto on Casini, and still no one wants Draghi, so we're still nowhere near a solution.

Many rounds of meetings scheduled for tonight and tomorrow morning, so hopefully something comes out of it.