Senate trend map

[Antonio the Sixth]

You got the direction largely right, but if your colors are there to indicate the trend's strength, they are way exaggerated on either side. You're predicting big democratic landslides in AZ, WI and even TX while assuming Nelson is done for, which makes no sense.

Here's my attempt. I'm sure it will be way off in some places.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Why can't people actually use the swing/trend color scheme actually used by Dave?

[Antonio the Sixth]

A lot of you guys are vastly underestimating Hawaii's swing. Hirono won by a relatively underwhelming margin (by the standards of a Hawaii Democrat) in 2012 because she was running against a popular former governor. She's going to romp by Inouye-esque margins this time.

Good point. Updated to reflect that.

Also, do you really think Stewart will hold Kaine to a margin in the low 10s? Because if I get your scale right, that's what you are implying.

[Antonio the Sixth]

A lot of you guys are vastly underestimating Hawaii's swing. Hirono won by a relatively underwhelming margin (by the standards of a Hawaii Democrat) in 2012 because she was running against a popular former governor. She's going to romp by Inouye-esque margins this time.

Good point. Updated to reflect that.

Also, do you really think Stewart will hold Kaine to a margin in the low 10s? Because if I get your scale right, that's what you are implying.

He won by 6 in 2012 and I have him shaded in the 5-10% swing, so he could win by anywhere from 11-16, which fits in pretty well with my expectations.

Which is exactly what I said (unless you want to be technical and argue that it's not the low 10s because it extends to 16 ).

Anyway, I really want to hope Kaine wins by at least 20 points. Stewart is f**king nuts even by modern GOP standards.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, I'm hoping that even some of the voters who are riled up by very transparent dog-whistling will have qualms about overt White supremacism. Maybe I'm wrong, we'll see.