UK General Election, 2017 - Election Day and Results Thread

[Antonio the Sixth]

Electoral Calculus have done an analysis of how the results would have looked on the provisional 2018 boundaries.

Headline figure: C 298 Lab 245 SNP 32 SF 9 DUP 7 LD 7 PC 1 Ind 1 Grn 0, which is three seats short of a majority for the Conservatives but enough to govern alone as the combined opposition without Sinn Fein is only 293 seats.

Ugh, of f**king course it would help the Tories.

What are the odds that this abomination ever comes to pass now that the Tories don't have a majority on their own?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Electoral Calculus have done an analysis of how the results would have looked on the provisional 2018 boundaries.

Headline figure: C 298 Lab 245 SNP 32 SF 9 DUP 7 LD 7 PC 1 Ind 1 Grn 0, which is three seats short of a majority for the Conservatives but enough to govern alone as the combined opposition without Sinn Fein is only 293 seats.

Ugh, of f**king course it would help the Tories.

What are the odds that this abomination ever comes to pass now that the Tories don't have a majority on their own?

Probably not high because these boundaries really hurt the DUP.

But would that mean they'll just change the NI boundaries while leaving the GB ones unchanged?

[Antonio the Sixth]

whether Fianna Fail will run in the next election to capture the soft nationalist vote?

oh god please no

[Antonio the Sixth]

Electoral Calculus have done an analysis of how the results would have looked on the provisional 2018 boundaries.

Headline figure: C 298 Lab 245 SNP 32 SF 9 DUP 7 LD 7 PC 1 Ind 1 Grn 0, which is three seats short of a majority for the Conservatives but enough to govern alone as the combined opposition without Sinn Fein is only 293 seats.

Ugh, of f**king course it would help the Tories.

What are the odds that this abomination ever comes to pass now that the Tories don't have a majority on their own?

Probably not high because these boundaries really hurt the DUP.

But would that mean they'll just change the NI boundaries while leaving the GB ones unchanged?

The calls of gerrymandering would be sky high if they did that - it's just not the done thing.  I assume that they'll change the rules to a position that the DUP would like and restart the review - but that sort of thing would also be very popular with the other parties since they'd probably go back to something like the old rules.

That's very relieving to know.

Does that also mean we'd return to 650 seats?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Honestly, 10% is a really high deviation, and I could see it increasing the chance of an undemocratic outcome quite a bit. I'd say 5% is the maximum that can be tolerated (when I draw districts myself I usually try to stay within 1%). But yeah, most important is keeping the solid levels of representativeness that 650 seats allow, or at least not going backwards.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Honestly, 10% is a really high deviation, and I could see it increasing the chance of an undemocratic outcome quite a bit. I'd say 5% is the maximum that can be tolerated (when I draw districts myself I usually try to stay within 1%). But yeah, most important is keeping the solid levels of representativeness that 650 seats allow, or at least not going backwards.

5% is really hard in UK. They use wards as building blocks, which building 75k constituencies from block ranging from 1000 (rural districts) to 15000 (large cities). Try to make it at 1% deviation with 10000 inhabitants bulding blocks.

Well, they should collect more fine-grained data.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I actually hope there isn't another election soon. In fact, I'd love for that Parliament to stick around until 2022, if there's a possibility. Labour is in an ideal spot right now: having regained momentum and established itself as a credible opposition while the Tories have to manage a difficult international situation with an ungovernable Parliament. Whatever comes to change things now would only weaken its hands: if it gains more seats, it will be in the difficult situation of forming a coalition with the LibDems and the SNP, which I can't see working very well, and would now be responsible for the Brexit negotiations. If they lose seats, then the Tories regain their majority and can resume carrying out their disastrous agenda. The best thing to do is sit and wait while the Tories self-destruct.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Al, how would you group occupations into a meaningful class structure adapted to a modern service economy? I'm asking mainly because I might have to grapple with that problem myself at some point soon, and I want to at least try to get it right.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'm sure glad Al made his point about the measurement of class before I saw this chart. Otherwise it would have been utterly depressing.

[Antonio the Sixth]

And again what must always be endlessly, tediously, emphasised is that none of this data (no matter who from) is particularly reliable.

Just why are British polls so bad, exactly? And why after getting it wrong so many times they still haven't worked out a better methodology? This seems a bit baffling.

@NewStatesman
 France and Britain are living each other's 1997 elections, says @PaulineBock



http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/june2017/2017/06/france-and-britain-are-living-each-others-1997-elections

interesting article

There are flaws in the logic (Chirac actually did have a "strong and stable" majority and dissolved the Assembly to try to avoid losing it the next year; of course the socialists actually won the thing; and of course Jospin wasn't exactly Corbyn), but still, wow.

[Antonio the Sixth]

You third-wayites are amazing. Corbyn just achieved the highest gains for Labour since Clement F**king Attlee and turned around a 17-point deficit (which, let's face it, was at least partly caused by the infighting that YOU triggered because you couldn't accept him as a legitimate leader) into a near-tie, electing more MPs in the process than the party has had since the Blair years, and somehow you still manage to find things to complain about him and insist that he's unelectable even as Labour has taken a lead in the polls.

Look, I get that you don't like Corbyn very much and strongly disagree with his views, and I respect that. I myself am not a fan of his foreign policies (though his domestic policies are excellent). But stop pretending that your issue with him has anything to do with his objective quality as a leader, because that's blatant bullsh*t.

[Antonio the Sixth]

For Tony:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_breakdown_of_the_United_Kingdom_general_election,_2017
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_2017_(England)

Vote totals for each English region are there, as well as swings. They don't have detailed English region results in 2015, I'm afraid.

Nice! Thank you.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The picture will be larger if you right click on it. And you can see the full size image - which is Too Big For Atlas - here.

Beautiful!

Of course it could be more beautiful with a lot more red, but I hope we'll get that eventually.

[Antonio the Sixth]

By classic swing voter types you mean MONDEO MAN right al?

Exactly so.

What does that mean for us uninitiated? White-collar employees?

[Antonio the Sixth]

By classic swing voter types you mean MONDEO MAN right al?

Exactly so.

What does that mean for us uninitiated? White-collar employees?

Essex man aka Mondeo man

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Essex_man

UGH

[Antonio the Sixth]

Lack of homeownership wouldn't be a major problem if rent was affordable. And pro-homeownership policies tend to drive up rents...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Party results in England since 1945 (source):



Tories back to Major levels, Labour back to Blair levels (and Libs back to early Thorpe levels ).

[Antonio the Sixth]

Probably the best speech I have heard from any politician in a long time (I am referring to the part where she talks about how the parliament, including all rules and tradition reek of the establishment).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gPBbkpcPXBg

England is like Westeros: the only part of it that's not totally culturally abhorrent is the North.