ND-SEN: But you are, Blanche, you are

[Antonio the Sixth]

Why in the world are people speculating about T***p's f**king nicknames as if people actually voted based on them?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Why in the world are people speculating about T***p's f**king nicknames as if people actually voted based on them?

Because it's fun and is an excellent example of how immature our current President is and what a stupid time we are living in.

And how immature are we for focusing on this instead of all the ways his administration is screwing over this country (or, in this case, instead of meaningful electoral news)?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Heitkamp is someone who could really get screwed over the SCOTUS nomination, if she votes no she gives up any pretense of being a moderate and likely loses several centrist/conservative votes. If she votes yeas she risks alienating the far left that is funding her campaign

TIL you're not a moderate unless you support a far-right SCOTUS nominee.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Heitkamp is someone who could really get screwed over the SCOTUS nomination, if she votes no she gives up any pretense of being a moderate and likely loses several centrist/conservative votes. If she votes yeas she risks alienating the far left that is funding her campaign

TIL you're not a moderate unless you support a far-right SCOTUS nominee.

Such is life when you live in a political climate polarized based on an issue of morality.

The Supreme Court brought this upon itself by blatantly making stuff up to get the ruling they wanted. The craziest part is that they seemed blissfully unaware of the ramifications and destruction it would wreak on the US political system.

You can definitely argue that the Warren Court was the one that normalized this practice (although given the shameless abuses of judicial power involved in the Dred Scott decision or in Lochner-era jurisprudence, it's a pretty simplistic view) but in the past few decades, conservatives have elevated blatantly partisan judicial activism to an art form. So, yes, both sides do it and both sides need to stop doing it.

[Antonio the Sixth]

lol @ people still assuming 2012-2016 trends are permanent when most elections we've had so far show the opposite

[Antonio the Sixth]

Why the left would be particularly optimistic about North Dakota at the moment is beyond me.

....because its a senate seat we hold? And we won it in 2012? And there is a strong chance we hold it again?

Except that in 2012, Romney won the State by a margin of 188,320-124,966, a margin of 19.62%. Heitkamp won re-election in the same year 161,337-158,401 which is a margin 0.9%. In 2016, the State went to Trump by 35.8 points, Senator Hoeven won re-election by 61.5 points and Representative Cramer won re-election by 45.4 points. President Trumps second highest approval rating by State is currently in North Dakota, he has come out for Cramer in the election and Senator Heitkamp has consistently voted against significant administration objectives in the areas of taxes, immigration, health care and judicial appointments (excluding her vote in favor of Justice Gorsuch), just to name a few. If the economy remains strong by the November elections and barring some substantial unforeseen event which significantly damages the President, I would not advise you to put much money on Heitkamp winning re-election.

2016. TRENDS. ARE. NOT. PERMANENT.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Incredible how Americans pronounce "Heidi Heitkamp" ...

Just watched one of her ads and you guys pronounce it "Hey-dee Heyd-kemp" instead of "High-dee Hight-kump" ?

I've been pronouncing it as you say it should be.

Same (European normal).

[Antonio the Sixth]

Why is she called "Heidi" anyway ?

Her real name is Mary Kathryn Heitkamp.

Is there any particular reason for Heidi ? Does she love Swiss/Austrian alpine meadows or cows ?



(Btw, the guy in the background is Kevin Cramer ...)

I chuckled.

Heidi is pretty adorable tbh.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Also, "Heidi Heitkamp" has added alliterative appeal to it.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, people who try to predict Congressional election results more than a year before always end up looking really, really dumb. Hence why I never touch these threads with a 10-foot pole.

[Antonio the Sixth]

But Cramer Supports the tariffs that will screw over farmers! Do voters not care about issues?

Generally speaking, no, they don't.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Amy Klobuchar made an appearance in North Dakota on behalf of Heitkamp, and the two did some press rounds together:

http://www.wday.com/news/government-and-politics/4500366-evening-heitkamp-and-klobuchar-talking-kavanaugh-farm-bill-and

https://www.kvrr.com/2018/09/15/sens-heitkamp-and-klobuchar-attend-annual-dem-npl-burdick-dinner/

Klobuchar's mega-coattails should be enough to save Heitkamp.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Amy Klobuchar made an appearance in North Dakota on behalf of Heitkamp, and the two did some press rounds together:

http://www.wday.com/news/government-and-politics/4500366-evening-heitkamp-and-klobuchar-talking-kavanaugh-farm-bill-and

https://www.kvrr.com/2018/09/15/sens-heitkamp-and-klobuchar-attend-annual-dem-npl-burdick-dinner/

Klobuchar's mega-coattails should be enough to save Heitkamp.

Between that post and your avatar, I mistook you for Cory Booker.

Mega-coattails were Aizen's creation, not OC's.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Kind of off topic, but I had a dream last night that a poll was released that had Heitkamp leading 24-14 with 62% undecided, and everyone on Atlas took it seriously and acted like she was heavily favored because she now had a double digit lead.

ayy lmao

[Antonio the Sixth]

Ffs, none of the red state Dems are voting to confirm Kavanaugh. They'd demoralize their base and sink their chances for reelection. If Heitkamp wins it's going to be because female voters put her over the top. And Heitkamp knows this.

I hope to God that you're right.

[Antonio the Sixth]

My God Bagel just shut up.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Heitkamp better be preparing an ad about what Cramer said. If she doesn't do anything with it, she deserves to lose.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Heitkamp better be preparing an ad about what Cramer said. If she doesn't do anything with it, she deserves to lose.

She already made one.

Good!

[Antonio the Sixth]

Can't post the link but a SRA Poll and NBC ND has the race at 51-41 Cramer. 60-27-13 on support, opposed, unsure for Kavanaugh. He's also voters' biggest concern at 21% with healthcare being #2 at 13%. Strategic Research Associates doesn't even have a 538 pollster rating unless I'm missing it so I'm not sure how legit this poll is.

lol

[Antonio the Sixth]

This race was Lean R before Kavanaugh's confirmation, it’ll most likely remain Lean R after Kavanaugh's confirmation.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Don't you only need 4 justices to take up a case? If so, it would mean one of the liberal ones refused to.

[Antonio the Sixth]

It's really difficult to get a North Dakota driver's license.

There's only four DMVs in the state that are open five days a week, all in ND's four largest cities (Fargo, Bismarck, Grand Forks and Minot). If you don't live near one of those, you might be lucky if the closest government center that offers DMV services is even open one day a week. Many are open only times like the 2nd and 4th Wednesdays of each month with hours like 9:40AM to 3:20PM. Here look: https://www.dot.nd.gov/divisions/driverslicense/docs/Drivers%20Lic%20Sites.pdf

Luckily ND does allow license renewal online, but that only applies to current residents. If you're formerly out of state, to get one you have to take the written test, which is notoriously difficult. I had to take it four times to pass, and it's joked about in high schools about how no one except geniuses passes it on the first try. It's not like it's the equivalent of a bar exam or anything, but is designed to be challenging because of how young ND allows people to take it at (as young as 14.) And no being a seasoned driver doesn't help much because it's mostly about memorization and regurgitation of traffic law facts, while driving experience is mostly habit and muscle memory.

So basically, I don't think many out of state oil workers are getting ND licenses, especially since a lot still have families back home that they're not willing to relocate and only plan on being there temporarily anyway. Also theres a lot less of them than there was a few years ago. Not saying Heitkamp will in, there's a lot of factors against her like increased polarization and barely winning last time, but I don't think this is a major blow against her, or honestly possibly not even a blow at all.

If this is even an ounce true, then this move probably helps Heitkamp a ton. The R trend of the West was mostly due to out of state oil workers, and now, they may not be able to vote. Not to mention, the areas that can get driver licences are all in the East, of in largely pro-Heitkamp areas.

This may possibly be a game changer. Funny that it would come from a voter ID law.

No, not really. Western ND has always been heavily Republican. The oil boom just increased the population of some counties out there, but even then the population increase was in numerical numbers not very high. It's just that those counties had such low populations to begin with.

I mean let's compare some total votes cast. These are the two fastest growing counties in the United States:

Williams County:
2016 - 12,807
2012 - 9,808

McKenzie County:
2016 - 4,672
2012 - 3,451

Yeah, those are huge increases percentage wise! But then let's compare to:

Cass County:
2016 - 80,821
2012 - 73,855

Oh wait, numerically that's higher! Also I don't know the 2012 estimates for those, but compared to the 2010 Census McKenzie County has almost doubled in population. But it didn't come close to doubling in votes cast. That's because most of those workers probably weren't even registering or settling there to begin with and saw it as a temporary gig. They're also not the types known for high turnout or registration.

Also the population increase in Cass County from 2012 is higher than the increase in those two counties combined. Now granted yes, it's true that the Cass County increase is probably largely due to rural depopulation and population shifts within North Dakota but the population center of gravity in the state hasn't really shifted that much.

Is it possible that pollsters are reaching these people and failing to account for their low propensity to vote?

I know, I know, grasping at straws.

[Antonio the Sixth]

That's bullsh*t. She was down by comparable numbers before announcing her vote.