Congressional Special Elections Results Thread (OLD, PLEASE UNSTICKY) (user search)
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  Congressional Special Elections Results Thread (OLD, PLEASE UNSTICKY) (search mode)
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Author Topic: Congressional Special Elections Results Thread (OLD, PLEASE UNSTICKY)  (Read 205209 times)
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,522
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« on: December 12, 2017, 07:59:02 PM »
Well, there we go.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,522
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #1 on: December 12, 2017, 11:39:46 PM »
Well, wow.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,522
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #2 on: June 30, 2018, 03:06:15 PM »
Is there a NYT results page for this?
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,522
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #3 on: July 01, 2018, 06:01:04 AM »
« Edited: July 01, 2018, 06:09:55 AM by SHO MI YOWA BUREIV HAAT »
I mean that very table shows that a +6 swing is way less than past swings for special elections this cycle. Maybe there's something special about this race that explains Democratic underperformance, but that doesn't mean it should be dismissed out of hand.

Even 538's take is "could be bad news for Democrats, could be nothing".
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,522
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #4 on: July 01, 2018, 09:45:37 AM »
There's no reason to throw out any data point entirely. This isn't Proof That Democrats Are Doomed or anything but it's still a data point that might tell us something about the partisan climate. There's always a good reason to dismiss any given special election's results, but the smart thing to do is to consider each of them as one noisy indicator.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,522
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #5 on: July 02, 2018, 06:09:34 PM »
Polls are not magic. You simply can't get estimates of election outcomes that are THAT precise. Maybe some day people will invent a better tool to predict election results, but that day isn't today.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,522
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #6 on: July 16, 2018, 02:46:00 PM »
> internals, guys
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,522
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #7 on: July 16, 2018, 05:47:33 PM »
Quote from: Cory Booker on July 16, 2018, 04:50:36 PM
DeWine is leading in the same poll that showed Brown ahead by 4. DeWine leads 42-38, OH leans R

Brown is not winning by 4 lol
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,522
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #8 on: July 17, 2018, 03:25:11 AM »
Don't most polls have Brown up by double digits?
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,522
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #9 on: July 19, 2018, 04:36:44 AM »
That's not a histogram Tongue but thanks for the data anyway. Wink
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