538 Senate Forecast Megathread: Currently Projecting 6 Democratic Pick Ups (user search)
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  538 Senate Forecast Megathread: Currently Projecting 6 Democratic Pick Ups (search mode)
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Author Topic: 538 Senate Forecast Megathread: Currently Projecting 6 Democratic Pick Ups  (Read 4963 times)
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,384
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« on: October 17, 2016, 04:35:29 PM »
Quote from: Figueira on October 17, 2016, 04:28:31 PM
NC is now tied in margin and chances.

I don't get why. There hasn't been any poll showing Ross ahead recently, and the most recent one has Burr+1.
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,384
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #1 on: October 17, 2016, 06:14:49 PM »
Quote from: Vosem on October 17, 2016, 04:49:04 PM
Quote from: Jante's Law Revivalist on October 17, 2016, 04:35:29 PM
Quote from: Figueira on October 17, 2016, 04:28:31 PM
NC is now tied in margin and chances.

I don't get why. There hasn't been any poll showing Ross ahead recently, and the most recent one has Burr+1.

He takes generic congressional ballot polls into account.

Meh, I wouldn't put much trust into generic ballot polls. People don't have an option to vote for "generic Democrat" or "generic Republican", they can only vote for the candidates that are actually running where they live.
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,384
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #2 on: October 17, 2016, 08:54:00 PM »
Quote from: Figueira on October 17, 2016, 08:46:43 PM
Quote from: Jante's Law Revivalist on October 17, 2016, 06:14:49 PM
Quote from: Vosem on October 17, 2016, 04:49:04 PM
Quote from: Jante's Law Revivalist on October 17, 2016, 04:35:29 PM
Quote from: Figueira on October 17, 2016, 04:28:31 PM
NC is now tied in margin and chances.

I don't get why. There hasn't been any poll showing Ross ahead recently, and the most recent one has Burr+1.

He takes generic congressional ballot polls into account.

Meh, I wouldn't put much trust into generic ballot polls. People don't have an option to vote for "generic Democrat" or "generic Republican", they can only vote for the candidates that are actually running where they live.

Sure, but it means that if Ayotte, Burr, and Toomey win, it won't be because voters want a "check" on Clinton or whatever.

Yeah, that would at least be the silver lining.

More important, however, is making sure they don't win.
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,384
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #3 on: October 18, 2016, 04:32:51 PM »
I'd love to believe these numbers, but this seems waaay too optimistic. Generic congressional polls don't mean sh*t.
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,384
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #4 on: October 18, 2016, 05:16:51 PM »
Quote from: Assemblyman Gass3268 on October 18, 2016, 05:14:40 PM
Quote from: Jante's Law Revivalist on October 18, 2016, 04:32:51 PM
I'd love to believe these numbers, but this seems waaay too optimistic. Generic congressional polls don't mean sh*t.

The big jump recently came from negative trend lines for the Republican candidates.

Negative trendlines where? In Nevada maaaaaaybe (though the polls don't really seem to agree there), in MO and NC it's only due to junky internet polls. PA and NH, meanwhile, haven't shown any movement.
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,384
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #5 on: October 21, 2016, 10:25:59 PM »
Dem chances are falling again. I think their models are a bit too sensitive.
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,384
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #6 on: November 08, 2016, 12:34:21 AM »

Wrong thread.
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