Times-Picayune/Lucid 2016 Tracking Poll: 11/6: Clinton +5

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'm just not sure why people are keen to deny the weight of evidence and previous trends. It's a kind of ignorance that makes one no different than the Trumpists. Does the tightening really matter in the grand scheme of things? No. But we still have evidence of it.

Yeah, it has tightened a bit. All I hope is that it's not indicative of the trend from now to Nov 8.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'm just not sure why people are keen to deny the weight of evidence and previous trends. It's a kind of ignorance that makes one no different than the Trumpists. Does the tightening really matter in the grand scheme of things? No. But we still have evidence of it.

We have evidence in aggregate that the polls have probably moved from around Clinton +6.5-7.0 to around Clinton +6.0-6.5.  The chance that it's entirely noise is non-negligible.  It's likely it's tightening, but I think there are periods where just eyeballing the polls -- instead of adjusting from when they're released, how big they are, etc. -- can give illusory or exaggerated signals.  I think this is one of those times.

I think a big part of it is that many of us were misled by a few polls to expect a Hillary win by 8-10 points. At this stage, anything below that feels disappointing.