FiveThirtyEight Update: GOP still slight favorite to win Senate

[Antonio the Sixth]

Wonder when their full model will be out.

Yeah, it's pretty pathetic that they still don't have it ready. At this point I don't see what differentiates 538's "forecast" from other political pundits' race rankings.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I love how when Nate Silver predicts every state right in the 2012 election and forecasts an almost inevitable Democratic majority for decades to come he's an Atlas folk hero, but now that he's using the same methodologies to arrive at the conclusion of a GOP Senate come 2015 he's now unreliable or along the lines of any other Sabato or Rothenburg type.

Nice move, Atlas.  Nice move.

And I can't wait to see the waterworks here when the GOP gets to 51 on election night.

Except he's not.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I asked the 538 guys to look at this over Twitter and actually got a response from Harry Enten, who writes political articles for them, so maybe they'll post an analysis of past 538 probs soon.

Did he say when they plan to release their real model? It would be nice if they did before November...

[Antonio the Sixth]

In ND and MT, Silver's model gave too much weigh on "State fundamentals" at the expense of polls, which showed close races in both cases.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Harry Enten ‏@ForecasterEnten  44 min
@kriamerica shud be before sept. We will see tho

SEPTEMBER?!? "Should be"? Are you f**king kidding me?!?