The 2014 primary season ends (Sept. 9: DE, MA, NH, NY, RI) (user search)
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  The 2014 primary season ends (Sept. 9: DE, MA, NH, NY, RI) (search mode)
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Author Topic: The 2014 primary season ends (Sept. 9: DE, MA, NH, NY, RI)  (Read 149405 times)
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,473
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« on: August 10, 2014, 04:18:47 AM »
How many registered voters are there in these precincts?
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,473
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #1 on: August 10, 2014, 04:29:24 AM »

So if everyone turned out, Hanabusa would need a 22 point lead to flip the race. How likely is that?
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,473
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #2 on: August 10, 2014, 04:02:19 PM »
Quote from: cinyc on August 10, 2014, 03:16:28 PM
AoSHQDD has called the race for Schatz. 

It's hard to see how Hanabusa makes up a 1,635-vote deficit in the two outstanding precincts.  For starters, some of the voters have already cast absentee or early ballots.  Schatz won the absentee and election-day vote in neighboring precincts.  And even if all 8,000 registered voters were to vote, Hanabusa would need to win it 60-40.  If a more realistic 4,000 votes are cast, she'd need to win it 70-30 - a margin she rarely reached in any precinct statewide.

Fantastic news! Smiley Long live our brave Senator Schatz!
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,473
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #3 on: August 10, 2014, 05:13:23 PM »
Fascinating maps! Smiley And those two precincts look like they should support Schatz as well (or at worst go to Hanabusa by a very tiny margin).
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,473
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #4 on: August 16, 2014, 10:11:28 AM »
Dominating!
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,473
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #5 on: August 17, 2014, 07:38:26 AM »
Quote from: Vega on August 16, 2014, 10:22:40 AM

I wouldn't call winning a U.S. Senate Primary by 1,769 votes dominating.

Dominating is not a number, it's a state of mind.
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