Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide

[Antonio the Sixth]

Sorry I wasn't there to comment this (as always in Italy) awesomely insane election cycle! Anyway, these are actually really interesting results, and I'm pretty curious to see how Raggi and Appendino will govern their cities. They both seem a LOT better than most M5S figures we've seen so far, and change was certainly needed in a lot of ways. If I voted in Rome, I actually think I would have voted for Raggi (nothing personal against Giachetti, but the Roman PD needed to be taught a lesson). In Turin definitely not, since Fassino has been a good mayor by all accounts.

Now Renzi is in a really tough spot, and tbh this worries me because the referendum on constitutional reforms (the one eliminating the abomination that is perfect bicameralism, among other things) is coming up in October, and the right and M5S are looking forward to turning it into a referendum on #Renxit. I really hope he has a trick up his sleeve to win this, because Italy really needs those reforms.

Also, if anyone's interested, I can do graphs comparing 2016 results in big cities with the previous elections. I might end up doing them even if nobody is interested, but any interest would provide additional motivation.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Also, if anyone's interested, I can do graphs comparing 2016 results in big cities with the previous elections. I might end up doing them even if nobody is interested, but any interest would provide additional motivation.

Please do!

Here are the compared results for the Big Four. I calculated the candidates' results as percentages of the valid votes in order to visualize the evolution of turnout, both over time and between the two round. The system is two-round FPP (runoff results for the two candidates who advanced are shown through the bars to the right, with a darker shade). The color scheme is, roughly speaking, yellow for M5S, red for PD or PD-endorsed, blue for the mainstream right, pink for candidates to the PD's left, orange for De Magistris (left-populist maverick), turquoise for the center-right, and brown for a candidate to the right of PdL/FI.


Rome



The PD municipal councilors collectively resigned earlier this year in order to trigger an early election and get rid of the controversial Marino. The campaign was marked by the massive scandal involving pervasive mafia influence in the city government. Although Marino himself is one of the few officials who hasn't been involved in this scandal, his management of the crisis was seen as weak and ineffectual.

This is the only major city where turnout actually increased compared to the previous, which is quite surprising considering the context, but might speak to the M5S' success in winning over disaffected voters. Virginia Raggi has a comparatively strong mandate, having won the support of 30% of the electorate (more than twice as much as the PD's Giachetti) in the runoff. The most striking pattern is the massive increase in support for Raggi between the two rounds, over 13 points. This clearly means that right-wing voters (especially those of the nationalist and euroskeptic Giorgia Meloni). By contrast, Giachetti picked up very little.


Milan



2011 was a triumphal year for the Italian left, and nowhere was this more obvious than in Milan, the birthplace of Berlusconism and a longtime stronghold of the right. Giuliano Pisapia, the left-wing independent who beat official PD candidates in the coalition primary, went on to win the strongest percentage of the electorate in any of these charts (in terms of valid votes, he won 55%). Pisapia remained popular throughout his term and many begged him to run again, but he honored a campaign promise and retired after one term. The left and right's candidates this year, respectively Sala and Parisi, have been described as almost identical (both have a background as technocrats and managers).

Milan was one of the few places where the traditional bipolarization held up, with the two main candidates winning over 80% of valid votes by the first round already. As a result, neither of them picked up much ground in the runoff. Sala had a slight edge in the first round, and (despite predictions that anti-Renzi mood would benefit Parisi) held on it in the runoff. It seems a majority of M5S voters still prefer the left-wing Tweedledee to the right-wing Tweedledum. Still, his mandate is weak, with barely a quarter of the Milanese electorate expressing support for him.


Naples



Luigi De Magistris is a strange case, and to describe him properly I would need several long paragraphs. In a nutshell, though, he was an insurgent left-wing candidate endorsed by the now defunct IdV (Di Pietro's anti-corruption party) who went on to edge out the establishment candidate run by the PD and subsequently trounce the right-wing candidate in the runoff. In office, he has developed a very personalistic style, with a strong anti-establishment vibe (he notably clashed with Renzi) and an image as champion of lawfulness and popular participation. I'm not familiar enough with Naples to judge how truthful his image is, but, considering this year's results, at least a few Neapolitans appear to buy it.

The between-rounds swing in 2011 was stunning, with De Magistris more than doubling his first-round showing while the right's Lettieri somehow managed to lose some of his initial voters. It's hard to tell exactly what happened, but it seems likely that many voters hadn't really considered him in the first round, and when presented with a choice between a career politician and an outsider, chose the latter by a wide margin. Turnout in 2016 dropped sharply (in the runoff, it amounted to barely a third of the electorate), which cast a shadow on De Magistris' massive victory. The two opponents in the runoff turned out to be the same as in 2011, with the official PD candidate once again failing to make it in what was seen as a personal humiliation for Renzi. And, as in 2011, Lettieri managed to lose voters in the runoff (although this time that was probably due to the fact that he was seen as a lost cause).


Turin



Poor, poor Piero Fassino. Despite having been by most accounts a good mayor, the PD bigwig went from winning an absolute majority by the first round in 2011 to a humiliating defeat in 2016. This was the first time ever since the popular election of mayors was introduced in 1993 that the left lost Turin. Along with Naples, this is the most burning defeat for Renzi's PD. While Fassino had an apparently comfortable lead in the first round, his M5S opponent Chiara Appendino, just like Raggi in Rome, made massive gains between the two rounds. She clearly took some votes from the right, which completely imploded this year and scattered between three candidates, and possibly from the left-wing dissident as well. This ability of M5S to gather broad-based support from anyone who opposes the incumbent will certainly be something to look out for in future elections.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, basically everything M5S's detractors had warned about is coming true. Which I, as someone who was genuinely hopeful about them being a force for good at least locally, find absolutely depressing.

[Antonio the Sixth]

All hell's breaking loose in Rome...

I'm trying very hard to be surprised but am failing. What's 'told you so' in Italian?

Te/Ve l'avevo detto.

Yeah, basically everything M5S's detractors had warned about is coming true. Which I, as someone who was genuinely hopeful about them being a force for good at least locally, find absolutely depressing.

Which was what (for the ignorant like me )?

That they'd be utterly incompetent at all the nitty gritty aspects of managing a large public administration, and devolve into constant internal squabbles with the national "directory" trying to control everything.

[Antonio the Sixth]

"Renzi is like Pinochet, the famous dictator from Venezuela"

Di Maio,today.
I am not sure which part is worse.

Truly amazing.

As the great Vincenzo De Luca would say, "cialtroneria pura".

[Antonio the Sixth]

  So, whats the likely political fallout if the "no" side prevails?

Hard to say, but Renzi will be in serious trouble - possibly close to a lame duck. He said he wouldn't resign, but Renzi isn't exactly known for keeping his word.

That said, without a voting system that guarantees a clear winner, I doubt many will want to go to the polls.

[Antonio the Sixth]

  So, whats the likely political fallout if the "no" side prevails?

Hard to say, but Renzi will be in serious trouble - possibly close to a lame duck. He said he wouldn't resign, but Renzi isn't exactly known for keeping his word.

That said, without a voting system that guarantees a clear winner, I doubt many will want to go to the polls.

Well, the "Italicum" electoral law is already in place, and its fate is independent from that of the Constitutional Reform, at least formally.

The Italicum isn't worth much if the Senate, elected under the old system, still needs to give the government confidence.

Also, title edited to reflect the current campaign.

[Antonio the Sixth]

If anyone is wondering, current polls have No around 3-5 points ahead of Yes, with about a quarter of the voters still undecided.

Still hoping Renzi can turn this around.

[Antonio the Sixth]

On the basis of a sample of one person, I can now project that Italian Jews are safe "yes" and safe D.

Wait, you're Italian?

[Antonio the Sixth]

On the basis of a sample of one person, I can now project that Italian Jews are safe "yes" and safe D.

Wait, you're Italian?

No (though I'd obviously also be safe D, the only sane choice, and therefore safe yes), but a guy I hung out with on Yom Kippur was Couldn't resist the urge to discuss politics with him...

FF!

(FTR, being safe D doesn't always translate into safe Yes, depressingly )

[Antonio the Sixth]

I am slightly in favour of the reforms, but the indirect consequence wil be an electoral system in which one single party, even with 30%, can have the majority of seats, after a second round, so also Five Star Movement, and it would be a tragedy.
That's why I prefer that one chamber, the Senate, will remain as now, proportional, so that no crazy leader can have all the power

No. With 30%, there will be a runoff between the top 2, meaning that the winning party will have won a majority.

I don't think the Italicum is perfect, far from it, but this talking point needs to die.

[Antonio the Sixth]

If Renzi wins the referendum, will he call a new election to try and get a friendly senate ASAP and gain a "mandate"?

Elections in the spring would be a real possibility.

But that's a pretty big if, since "No" is currently leading in all polls.
The consensus is that the race is at 48% vs 52%, with 15/20% still undecided.

Doesn't a ''No'' trigger an election too, given Renzi's resignation.

No is a leap in the dark. No one knows what Renzi will really do, and no one knows what happens if he resigns.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Is there any actual argument for 'No'? At all? Sincere question.

There certainly are. There is a legitimate worry that, not the constitutional reform itself, but the reform combined with the current electoral law, essentially means giving whichever party wins full control over policy. And considering what parties could win the next elections, it is something to be scared about.

My only counter-argument is that I'm willing to take the risk, if the alternative is to keep having these dysfunctional "grand coalition" governments forever.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Hey all, glad to see this thread has been kept alive throughout these eventful (if thoroughly depressing) times.

Here's another map about this absolute disaster of a referendum, showing the compared results for Yes, No, and nonvoters as a percentage of registered voters:


As always, central Italy is the only remotely sane part of the country.


Now, if you want my take on what's to come, let me just say that I look forward to Renzi exacting cruel vengeance on those slimy apparatchiks who stabbed him in the back. The PD must be purged.

At least we still have VINCENZO DE LUCA!

[Antonio the Sixth]

1) Is this description accurate?

From my somewhat limited experience (I started following Italian politics in 2006), very much so. The Italian left's main strategy for most of Berlusconi's reign was to call him out on the outrageous things he said or his shady business dealings, and later on the bunga bunga. While these were all things that outraged left-wingers, it turned out that the average voter didn't care much either way, and when presented with unpopular center-left government, went with the only alternative.

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Hindsight is 20/20 and I'm not exactly a master of political strategy, but my guess is that they should have spent less time asking the question "Is Berlusconi a good role model for your children?" and instead start asking "What has Berlusconi actually done for Italy?" - the answer being almost nothing, aside from laws aimed at putting himself out of trouble judicially. I really don't want to sound like a Renzi hack (I don't even really like him!), but Renzi is one of the first who understood this, and it worked wonders. When he took over, Berlusconi's coalition was leading in the polls with Forza Italia itself the high 20s. Less than six months later, in the EP elections, it got a mere 17%. Even these days, with Renzi's approvals down, FI is polling below 15% (now the Lega has gained a lot, but that's a different issue).

[Antonio the Sixth]

The only thing that gives me solace about a possible future M5S government is that they're far too comically incompetent to successfully set up a dictatorship. But no doubt they will try.

[Antonio the Sixth]

It would be like their VERY SUCCESSFUL municipal admin in Rome but on a larger scale.

Precisely. It would be depressing, but in a somewhat entertaining way.


Anyway, a while ago I made a "who should I vote for?" flowchart with current Italian parties. It's slightly outdated (it was made when Renzi was still PM) but still largely holds. There it is:


(click for large version)

Curious what everybody gets!

[Antonio the Sixth]

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True, but then almost everybody here would end up on the government side (for the same reason I didn't put "Yes" as the pro-Renzi answer, because then everybody would have been on the opposition side).

I don't know how but I got Partito della Rifondazione Comunista :I

Didn't know you were so into great figures of Italian communism.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I don't know how but I got Partito della Rifondazione Comunista :I

Didn't know you were so into great figures of Italian communism.

If I would be Italian communist I would really care about people like Gramsci or Togliatti. I prefer old-school communism not some new left sh**t with fancy, minimalist logos. Nowadays real communist parties have member which are more than 50 years old generally, politics should be thing for old people (Italy is kinda doing great with that).

I take it you're not much of a Renzi fan, then.

(I definitely agree with you on political aesthetics, fwiw. To be clear, SI is not a full-blown New Left party - I'd say it has a healthy balance of old and new.)

[Antonio the Sixth]

Some elements are that sure. But mostly it's just the harnessing of a howl of despair by an egomaniac with an axe to grind.

With a creepy tech/marketing executive as its guru, yes.

[Antonio the Sixth]

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The history of the Italian left from 2012 to this day provides more than enough material to make a corny, fast-paced anime out of it. And I would LOVE to watch that anime.

[Antonio the Sixth]

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The history of the Italian left from 2012 to this day provides more than enough material to make a corny, fast-paced anime out of it. And I would LOVE to watch that anime.

I admit I spent about five repeats trying to rewatch and figure out who all the people were. All I got were the easy ones like Bersani, Prodi and Letta though.

In order of apparition: Bersani, Renzi, Prodi, Letta, Napolitano, Giovanardi, Berlusconi, Travaglio, Fini, Bossi, his son (?), Alfano, Boldrini, Monti, Vendola, Razzi, Grillo, and some guy I don't recognize.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Well, the next couple months are gonna be interesting.

[Antonio the Sixth]

  Any news yet on the court decision?

They say it should come on Wednesday.

[Antonio the Sixth]

F**king activist judges. I'm starting to think Berlusconi had a point.