Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide

[Antonio the Sixth]

It most certainly was - it didn't die with Craxi, and ignoring all-bar-Craxi is exactly the problem.

Most of Craxi's clique - even those who eventually joined the left coalition like Amato - very much inherited his vision of politics and his networks and was unambiguously friendly toward Berlusconi.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I don't think I can discuss the demographics in detail, but after spending a lot of time playing around with maps, I can talk about each party's geographic bases.

1) Italian Social Movement

Very strong in Lazio, especially in the suburbs of Rome. Also pretty strong throughout the South, especially in Calabria after the 1971 Reggio uprising which, although being largely apolitical, was embraced by MSI politicians.

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Mostly strong in South-central Italy (Lazio, Umbria and Marche) and later also in the Northwest.

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Very urban, unsurprisingly.

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It seems this party saw the exact opposite evolution of the PSI. It started off as a markedly Southern party (like other non-DC right-wing parties), but, by the 1970s, its base had completely shifted to the North, especially Piemonte.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Friendly like Renzi!

If Renzi was so friendly, Amato would be the President right now.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The standoff on electoral reform is coming to a close. Debate of the bill is about to start in the House, and Renzi has made it clear he won't accept any further amendment (which would force the bill to go back to the Senate, where the government's majority is very shaky). However, the anti-Renzi wing of the PD is up in arms against it, to an extent never seen before. Even the more moderate ones (like Bersani) seemingly seriously threaten to vote down the bill if changes aren't made. But Renzi has not flinched, and is even considering tying up the bill to a vote of confidence (effectively meaning "if the Italicum doesn't pass, this parliament goes down"). Today the PD has kicked out all the anti-Italicum PD members from the relevant parliamentary committee. Whatever happens, this will be a key test for both Renzi and the PD minority. The stakes are almost as high as they were for the Presidential election.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The standoff on electoral reform is coming to a close. Debate of the bill is about to start in the House, and Renzi has made it clear he won't accept any further amendment (which would force the bill to go back to the Senate, where the government's majority is very shaky). However, the anti-Renzi wing of the PD is up in arms against it, to an extent never seen before. Even the more moderate ones (like Bersani) seemingly seriously threaten to vote down the bill if changes aren't made. But Renzi has not flinched, and is even considering tying up the bill to a vote of confidence (effectively meaning "if the Italicum doesn't pass, this parliament goes down"). Today the PD has kicked out all the anti-Italicum PD members from the relevant parliamentary committee. Whatever happens, this will be a key test for both Renzi and the PD minority. The stakes are almost as high as they were for the Presidential election.

Are the anti-Renzi people ideologically coherent or are they fom different groups?

They're commonly interpreted as being on the PD's left, and claim to guard the party's traditional postcommunist "identity" against Renzi's third-wayish policies and hyper-modernistic style. This claim can be taken with varying degrees of seriousness depending on the speaker. Civati, who leads the most radical wing of the opposition, has always been known for his left-wing stance (even though he was formerly allied with Renzi, based on the old v. new divide in the party). Fassina too was always on the PD's left, but he kept his mouth shut when he was part of the do-nothing Letta government. He also hold a major personal grudge against Renzi and it's pretty clear he wants to do harm more than anything. Cuperlo also has positioned himself as a left-winger, but he became a known political figure when he challenged Renzi, so it's impossible to know how much of his stance is caused by the will to differentiate himself. Rosy Bindi has also long been an avowed left-winger, despite her Christian Democratic roots. For Bersani and D'Alema, it gets a bit murkier. Bersani was never exactly much of a left-wing flamethrower, but in terms of style, there is obviously a huge clash between him and Renzi (Bersani is known for his devotion to the party as a collective and his distaste for personalism). D'Alema is just a scheming, arrogant old clan leader who's desperately trying to keep being relevant after Renzi sidelined him. There are other, more minor figures, whose opposition to Renzi can be explained as about 50% political positioning and 50% personal distaste for Renzi.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The standoff on electoral reform is coming to a close. Debate of the bill is about to start in the House, and Renzi has made it clear he won't accept any further amendment (which would force the bill to go back to the Senate, where the government's majority is very shaky). However, the anti-Renzi wing of the PD is up in arms against it, to an extent never seen before. Even the more moderate ones (like Bersani) seemingly seriously threaten to vote down the bill if changes aren't made. But Renzi has not flinched, and is even considering tying up the bill to a vote of confidence (effectively meaning "if the Italicum doesn't pass, this parliament goes down"). Today the PD has kicked out all the anti-Italicum PD members from the relevant parliamentary committee. Whatever happens, this will be a key test for both Renzi and the PD minority. The stakes are almost as high as they were for the Presidential election.

Are the anti-Renzi people ideologically coherent or are they fom different groups?

They're commonly interpreted as being on the PD's left, and claim to guard the party's traditional postcommunist "identity" against Renzi's third-wayish policies and hyper-modernistic style. This claim can be taken with varying degrees of seriousness depending on the speaker. Civati, who leads the most radical wing of the opposition, has always been known for his left-wing stance (even though he was formerly allied with Renzi, based on the old v. new divide in the party). Fassina too was always on the PD's left, but he kept his mouth shut when he was part of the do-nothing Letta government. He also hold a major personal grudge against Renzi and it's pretty clear he wants to do harm more than anything. Cuperlo also has positioned himself as a left-winger, but he became a known political figure when he challenged Renzi, so it's impossible to know how much of his stance is caused by the will to differentiate himself. Rosy Bindi has also long been an avowed left-winger, despite her Christian Democratic roots. For Bersani and D'Alema, it gets a bit murkier. Bersani was never exactly much of a left-wing flamethrower, but in terms of style, there is obviously a huge clash between him and Renzi (Bersani is known for his devotion to the party as a collective and his distaste for personalism). D'Alema is just a scheming, arrogant old clan leader who's desperately trying to keep being relevant after Renzi sidelined him. There are other, more minor figures, whose opposition to Renzi can be explained as about 50% political positioning and 50% personal distaste for Renzi.

While we're at it, are there significant figures or factions to the right of Renzi inside the PD ? Or inside the centro-sinistra camp ?

Well, I think you have a small wing of people who stand somewhere in between the PD mainstream and, say, the rump Scelta Civica group. People like Tabacci or Ichino who are essentially Moderate Heroes with a Christian Democratic bent. Actually a whole dozen of SC parliamentarians left the party some time ago to join the PD. I guess this group can be considered as being "to the right" of Renzi, but they are really marginal.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Sorry for my absence! I would really have wanted to chronicle the battle over electoral reform in this thread. But I see you guys have done a pretty good job on your own.

Anyway, it's really an interesting time to be following Italian politics. Things have been changing really fast, and in ways that really seem insane when you look back. So yeah, Italy finally has a workable electoral system - well, half of it, since until the Constitutional reform still has a loooong way to go. On the other hand, Renzi has really started playing with fire with his latest moves. His opponents within the PD are really up in arms, nearly all the former power brokers in the party have voted against the electoral reform. Civati has left the party following the vote, and Fassina threatens to follow suit.

Now Renzi's priority is the reform of the school system, another thing that the left (and especially the labor unions) isn't quite fond of. I'm embarrassingly unaware of the specifics of his proposed reform, but, if TV debates are any indication, the heart of it seems to be pouring more money into the system, partly to rebuild the many severely damaged buildings, and partly to hire new teachers. Concurrently however, it would give very large powers to school principals, something which many teachers fear. Honestly, I can't have an opinion without knowing more detail. Politically however, this reform might really hurt Renzi further on his left. Now that Berlusconi is back to full opposition, his majority is fairly narrow in the Senate, and a few defections from the PD's left might potentially bring the government down. Renzi is known for taking big risks and always coming out on top, but this time he might want to be a bit more cautious.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Also, obviously the next big political test for Renzi (and everyone else) is coming up now, with the Regional elections. I think you guys have already started discussing them at great length, but I'll just reiterate that the two biggest races to watch will be Liguria (where a splinter candidate from the PD's left might split enough votes to allow Berlusconi's right-hand man to pull it off) and Campania (where the PD candidate, De Luca, is a very popular mayor of Salerno but is technically ineligible due to having been found guilty on abuse of office charges). These are the purest tossups.

Apart from those, there is Veneto, where the incumbent Lega candidate is favored to win reelection (though an upset is possible), and Puglia, where the very popular mayor of Bari, Michele Emiliano, is running to succeed Nichi Vendola. The right is very fractured there (it's the home of Berlusconi's main internal opponent, Raffaele Fitto), and barring a surprise, the left should hold its ground.

Toscana, Umbria and Marche should all stay to the PD as well.

[Antonio the Sixth]

That's pretty helpful, thanks!

Doesn't look too bad to me, in all honesty. Particularly since the subsidy to private schools has been scrapped, that was the most problematic aspect IMO.

It's pretty unfortunate for part-time teachers, but I can understand that not all of them could be hired. 100,000 more tenured teachers will make a huge difference.

[Antonio the Sixth]

De Luca is probably toast at this point. Berlusconi must be rejoicing, as FI will at least keep one region.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Another question about Italy's new run-off law: how do smaller parties fit into this? I'm not terribly familiar with parliamentary systems. If there is a run-off election, what happens to the smaller parties who recieved votes and seats according to the first election?

The representation threshold is 3%. Any party getting more than that will have seats in Parliament.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The way the majority bonus works is so complicated that even I, an electoral systems wonk, have no clue. But I've heard that it would ensure that the winning party gets at least 55% of the seats.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Turnout at 7PM was 39.2%. Voting continues until 11, so there might be a chance of reaching 50%.

[Antonio the Sixth]

EMG exit poll for Campania:
- De Luca (PD) 35.5-39.5%
- Caldoro (FI) 33.5-37.5%

EMG exit poll for Liguria:
- Toti (FI) 28-32%
- Salvatore (M5S) 25-29%
- Paita (PD) 21.5-25.5%
- Pastorino (Left) 11-15%


Dire news for Renzi if the Liguria result is confirmed.

[Antonio the Sixth]

EMG projections give a large lead to De Luca as well (42-37). So at least that seems to be getting clearer.

La7 also reported a rumor that Umbria is very close, but without giving any number.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Rai projection confirm PD trailing in Umbria. 41 to 40%

Still waiting for La7 though.

Masia is still holding back...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Rai projection confirm PD trailing in Umbria. 41 to 40%

Still waiting for La7 though.

Masia is still holding back...

He's obviously afraid of Mentana

And he might well be,it seems that he got Liguria hilariously wrong.
According to Rai,32% Toti - 30% Paita.

Yeah, Mentana doesn't seem to have much trust in polls and projections. Still, an unreliable estimate is better than nothing.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Marini leading 40-38.

Beat me to it.

[Antonio the Sixth]

EMG projects Liguria for Toti 33-29 over Paita.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Why, exactly, are things going so (relatively) badly for PD? What if anything has Renzi done to make himself unpopular?

Well, Renzi's approvals have been middling for a while now - though they remain much higher than they use to be for most PMs after one year in office. The clash in the PD over the electoral reform seems to have played a significant role. Almost all the PD's old leaders have voted against it, and Civati left the party (with Fassina hinting that he might soon follow suit). The split within the left is what caused the defeat in Liguria, as a dissident PD candidate endorsed by Civati and former union leader Cofferati acted as a spoiler.

Apart from that, the results are not too shabby. Veneto was a pretty humiliating defeat, but not exactly a surprise (although Renzi was hoping to win it early on, it was clear for a while that the right would hold it). Umbria was embarrassingly close, but apparently it's due to local factors more than national ones. In the two southern regions, PD did very well, though that's probably mostly due to the personal appeal of its candidates. The most "Renzi-ish" candidates (Moretti in VT and Paita in LI) have both been defeated, but I don't think this necessarily indicates a disaffection with Renzi himself.

Overall, PD is down by 10 points on average in comparison with the landslide 2014 EP elections. This means that the political spectrum has become more evenly balanced. Still, if elections were held today, PD would still have an edge.

[Antonio the Sixth]

In my eyes the combined Paita+Pastorino result is still quite an underperformance.

Definitely. A 6.5-point defeat for Paita is rather unforgivable, even with Pastorino taking 9.5%. If PD had stayed at its 2014 EP levels, Paita would have won easily. So yes, that's some trouble for Renzi, but it's still too early to tell exactly how much trouble.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I think M5S could break 40%, and even possibly 45%. Many right-wingers have an "anybody but the PD candidate" mentality. That's how M5S got its first major success, winning the Parma mayoral election.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Mario Mauto takes his tiny party (and two of his three senators) from the governing majority.

They had been voting against the government for a few months.

Someone's seeking attention...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Ugh... That's really bad news for the PD.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Meh, I guess it could be worse. At least it's M5S that's on the rise, rather than Lega.