Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide

[Antonio the Sixth]

So Grillo supporters are like Pirate Party supporters.

The M5S' origins stem very much from this type of environment, yes. On the other hand, the current M5S electorate is a very different beast, and it seems to resist all categorization.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I have understood it mainly people who are physically unable to vote for socialist party but do not want to vote Berlusconi again (at least in Sicily).

These people should have no issue about PD.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Salvini comes out in support of a flat tax. A nice reminder for the morons who think the European far-right is "economically leftist".

[Antonio the Sixth]

Really no idea what happened. I can't help but wonder if Napolitano had some influence in this.

The ban on serving in elected office is now lifted.

No. The sentence under which he is banned from holding office for 6 years had nothing to do with this case.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Really no idea what happened. I can't help but wonder if Napolitano had some influence in this.

The ban on serving in elected office is now lifted.

No. The sentence under which he is banned from holding office for 6 years had nothing to do with this case.

Just reporting what I saw from several media sources (none of which were Il Giornale ). 

Foreign media are prone to getting things wrong (especially when the picture is THAT complicated).

[Antonio the Sixth]

Really no idea what happened. I can't help but wonder if Napolitano had some influence in this.

The ban on serving in elected office is now lifted.

No. The sentence under which he is banned from holding office for 6 years had nothing to do with this case.

Just reporting what I saw from several media sources (none of which were Il Giornale ). 

Foreign media are prone to getting things wrong (especially when the picture is THAT complicated).

So I was also told that the "two year ban" (I assume the individual meant six year) wasn't struck down but the lifetime ban was. That isn't true either?

The lifetime ban was from the appealed sentence, so yes obviously it won't take effect (it never had, anyway).

[Antonio the Sixth]

The Senate started discussing the constitutional bill proposed by Renzi, which would drastically reduce its power. Of course, many Senators are opposed to the bill. They filled 7800 amendments, and started discussing them at the average speed of 3 per day... It looks like a defining moment for Renzi.

Indeed... If he doesn't manage to get it through by September, things will probably go downhill from there.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The Senate started discussing the constitutional bill proposed by Renzi, which would drastically reduce its power. Of course, many Senators are opposed to the bill. They filled 7800 amendments, and started discussing them at the average speed of 3 per day... It looks like a defining moment for Renzi.

Indeed... If he doesn't manage to get it through by September, things will probably go downhill from there.

Does this mean it passed? I thought the vote was next week?

Also, what's with SEL's opposition to weakening the Senate? I thought left-wing parties are generally more opposed to upper chambers.

The Italian hard-left is, for some reason, obsessed with the fear of an "authoritarian drift" of Italian politics. They think that if the "checks and balances" of the Italian constitution are weakened, democracy will be in danger and the PM will become some kind of quasi-dictator. Instinctive anti-Renzism may also play a big role.

Anyway, this is fantastic news. It wasn't the final vote, but the bill's key provision was passed with 194 ayes (of ~320), a solid majority. Now they say the final vote might come next week.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Bills can be passed article by article in Italian parliamentary procedure? Or was the reform package introduced as multiple separate pieces of legislation?

I think that votes on specific articles (which serve to summarily dismiss flocks of amendments and do not preclude the need for a final vote on the entire bill) are a fairly common procedure in Italian and French legislative processes. Doesn't that exist in the US?

[Antonio the Sixth]

So it looks like Italy's back in recession again Again.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/07/business/international/italy-falls-back-into-recession-raising-concern-for-eurozone-economy.html?_r=0

I don't know what to say. I guess it will take time to get the country back on track. We can get there... but only if the Italian voters don't screw up.

On the bright side, Senate reform is about to pass! Final vote probably tonight or tomorrow.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yes, it's likely that we will have a referendum as well, but I wouldn't worry too much about it, as Italians will be all too happy to get rid of the hated Senate. Yes, the path is still very long (it might be a year or two before the reform is written in stone), but the hardest part - getting the Senate to pass the reform - has been done.

[Antonio the Sixth]

@AntonioV. I think that it's time to renamed the thread in "Italy 2014: The road to Regionals Elections"

Really? From what I've seen, nobody in Italy is giving a crap about regional elections that will be held nearly a year from now.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Title updated to reflect Italy's supposed "new strength" in European politics (due to the EP results, Mogherini's appointment, and the semester of ceremonial Italian presidency). Of course it's mostly bull, but let's have fun.

Anyway, there's apparently a bankruptcy fraud allegation against Renzi's... father. Don't know how big that is.

Also, the Parliament is supposed to elect two Justices of Italy's Constitutional Court (which apparently takes a 2/3 supermajority), but after 13 ballots they still have been unable to agree. Renzi and Berlusconi had agreed on two guys (one from PD and one from FI), but FI "dissidents" are refusing to go along. This is quite significant, considering these guys are openly disobeying their Dear Leader. I think it was unheard of in a party like FI.

[Antonio the Sixth]

From what I gather, it's mostly FI though. There are a couple PD loose cannons, but for once the major split isn't on the left.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Just to let you know, Renzi is under fire from basically everyone these days. And I mean everyone. Columnists, entrepreneurs, bishops, trade unions, PD politicians, leftists, rightists... It's a mass attack.

It's certainly not entirely unwarranted (he's been acting like a dick), but the violence of the attacks, and their seemingly concerted (or possibly conformist) nature leaves me quite perplexed. And it fit well into Renzi's anti-establishment narrative.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Dare I ask how the political reform is going?

Not moving much right now. It passed a major step in August with the Senate's favorable vote (it's really a big deal: the Senate, the House of Gridlock by excellence, voted to abolish itself), but since the government has chosen to put other reforms on top of its agenda. Right now, they are at the frontline to push through their (quite neoliberal) labor market reform, which is the source of much controversy these days. My guess is that if Renzi comes out on top from this battle (far from sure), institutional/electoral reforms will once again be pushed forward and should overcome their hurdles. Still, it might take around a year before everything gets written in stone.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Ugh. Let me guess, Article 18 of the Statute of Workers is on the chopping block. Am I close?

In fairness, the project entirely awful - I don't know the specific but apparently it would also include a much more inclusive system for unemployment benefits and a simplification of the most anomalous forms of contracts. But yeah, Article 18 is what everybody is talking about.

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Anything can happen, considering how furious the PD's left-wing/old-guard is at Renzi. The really bad news is that FI has been conspicuously praising it (even though there are internal disagreement inside it too). It would be conceivable to see the bill be passed over the objections of a sizable share of the PD group, through an unholy Renzi-Berlusconi alliance, thus effectively giving the latter a significant stake in policymaking. I really hope Renzi will realize the implications and back down, but he has always been a pretty stubborn person.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Anything interesting happen?

Labor reform passed in the Senate in a confidence vote, Renzi is relieved, Berlusconi and Grillo make their usual antics... So no, nothing worthwhile.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Hey, so lots of stuff has been happening in the past month! Apart the election news that have been mentioned in this thread, you should know that:
- Napolitano announced he will be resigning early next year, so speculations on who the next President will be are running loose.
- Renzi's "Jobs Act" passed, after some slight watering-down as a compromise with the PD's left-wing. Still, most of the law's actual content will be shaped by the government's decrees, so stay tuned to see what this law actually means.
- There was a HUGE (and I mean, by Italian standards ) Mafia scandal in Rome recently. Basically a clique of criminals close to former far-right terrorists was effectively running the city's immigrant-welcoming services and various other activities, with the city council's support. Fortunately, the mayor Ignazio Marino is one of the few guys who genuinely had nothing to do with all this mess, so he still has a mandate to try and clean it up.
- Renzi's popularity is finally starting to falter, now his approvals and disapprovals are about even in most polls. Still he remains most popular party leader.
- Grillo effectively stepped down from the M5S leadership (right after expelling two more "dissidents"). He appointed a "board" of five people, chosen among his most vehement supporters, to take care of everything. M5S's collapse might be close...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Renzi 4 Prez...so we can have new government elections by the end of 2015.

Tbf, it would be quite hilarious if we went from a 90-year-old President to a 40-year-old one overnight.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'm going to be in Florence this May, so hopefully I'll see Emperor...President...PM...Renzi around!

Well, he's probably staying in Rome these days... Though I (with Hash and Zanas) went to Florence back when he was Mayor.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Oh Jesus Christ, Salvini is going to create a FPÖ equivalent in Italy...

The worst thing is, had Grillo been less of a moron, he could have prevented that and helped channel protest votes toward a credible left-wing alternative. Instead M5S will probably collapse within the next few months...

[Antonio the Sixth]

For the time being at least things look weirdly like how they were 'supposed' to be after Mani pulite, before Forza Italia turned up.

Well, if you consider the PD to be the PCI/PDS' heir in any meaningful sense, then yeah.

[Antonio the Sixth]

For the time being at least things look weirdly like how they were 'supposed' to be after Mani pulite, before Forza Italia turned up.

Well, if you consider the PD to be the PCI/PDS' heir in any meaningful sense, then yeah.

This is probably a naive question, but is there any chance of PD purging itself of the non-SD elements to become a bit more ideologically coherent?

That's not really the direction it's going for right now. Actually, Renzi has completely blurred the ideological picture inside the PD: the main divide is between the Renzi camp, the "old guard" (mostly old PDS stalwarts, but also many ex-DC like Bindi), and the "new left" faction led by Civati (but it's rumored that he's about to leave and found a new party).

[Antonio the Sixth]

Edited the thread to reflect that.