French legislative election 2012

[Antonio the Sixth]

You know what ? I'd like lil' miss sunshine MMLP to be elected in Vaucluse-3. Among my reasons :

- she's hot, I'm so depressed to say it, but she is, really.
- let's send a 22-year-old in her law studies to the National Assembly, she will certainly succeed in both her careers...
- let's see how a youngster like this can stand in the "questions au gouvernement" next to the vieux-briscards
- for finals, let the FN have some kind of political responsibility, and not one where they can do harm, just to see them fail badly
- she's so hot, that's disgusting.... :-(

Welcome to the forum, Zanas !

I can't agree with you but... if you claim she is that hot you need to post a picture.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Indeed. When you have Duflot, Vallaud-Belkacem and Filippetti, who needs her ?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Great ! We already have two great constituency forecasters (Fabien aka big bad fab and Gaël aka Hashemite), so a third one is more than welcome to spice things up.

BTW, Duflot is definitely the best.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Not sure I would qualify as a "great" predictor. My predictions were rather bad.

Can you tell us a bit more ? What kind of places did go against your predictions, and on which direction ? I'm sure you're exagerating, anyways.

And you still get to rectify your predictions for the 2nd round.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So how much seats will the Tweetergate cost us ? My rational brain tells me that this isn't a political issue and that there's no reason this could turn voters agains the left. But my guts tell me people are idiots and I've learnt to always expect the worst.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So how much seats will the Tweetergate cost us?

What the heck is tweetergate? And when did -gate start to be used for political scandals outisde of the US?  

The most ridiculous "political scandal" ever.

Basically, there is a PS vs. PS battle in one constituency (one of the two candidates being Ségolène Royal). Every PS leader has been actively campaigning for Ségolène with a dedication never seen in any other situation. And Hollande himself has made it pretty clear he supports her too.

Then, yesterday, Hollande's girlfriend (the "first lady") state on Tweeter her support for the other PS guy.

In an ideal word, the wife of the president would be entitled to support whoever she wants and her personal preference shouldn't be subject to political commentary (since she's not, you know, a politician), but this being a place filled with idiots, it has been labeled as a major "gaffe" for Hollande and the PS. Dumb story, really.

Oh, and "tweetergate" is a phrase I just invented. I like making up buzzwords.

[Antonio the Sixth]

It is poor form from Trierweiler to be fair. Just looks like petty teenager "omg, I hate the ex-girlfriend" stuff.

Yes, definitely. And I can't believe she was stupid enough not to realize the impact of her comments. Still, in an ideal world nobody should give a damn.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Fabien seems to think the seat tally remains roughly the same (354-217 in favor of the left), which is reassuring, but I know he always tends to consider the worst option. If he thinks the left wins 350 seats, I'd bet on 330-340.

Sorry if this has already been posted (I've checked and haven't seen it, though I could've missed it), but unfortunately Melenchon got 3rd place in Pas-de-Calais'-11.  I mean, I'd be a thorough PS supporter if I were French (unless Manuel Valls ends up becoming Hollande's successor, in which case I'd switch to either the Greens or the FdG), but I'd at least like to see Melenchon in parliament. 
Results:
Marine Le Pen (FN)-42.22%
Philippe Kemel (PS)-23.72%
Jean-Luc Melenchon (FdG)-21.46%
Jean Urbaniak (Divers droite)-7.86%
Marine Tondelier (EELV)-1.60%
Michael Vast (DLR)-0.92%
Others-2.22% (all of whom are left-wing or center-leftish...the PRG candidate is the most right-wing of them). 
Total Left: 49.00%
Total right (including FN): 51.00%
Eesh.  Looks like the runoff is going to be close.  Kemel will have to take more than 1% of the non-FN right-wing vote to win assuming none of the FdG voters opt for Le Pen (and judging by what she stands for, I wouldn't be surprised if at least some of them do).  So, the numbers seem to be pointing towards a narrow Kemel victory.

Pre-election polls hinted that Kémel was a stronger candidate than Mélenchon in a runoff against Le Pen, winning by over 55%. However, it should be noted that Le Pen significantly overperformed its polling (polls gave her around 35%), so I really don't know how it will end up. I really hope enough people will grow a brain by sunday...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Oh yeah, if you are projecting a majority even bigger than what Fabien expects, you know something is wrong.

I don't know what I would give to see such a result, anyways...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Le Pen significantly overperformed its polling

While Urbaniak significantly underperformed, so probably most of those his voters who were ready to vote for Le Pen, voted for her already in 1st round...

True. I really hope you are right.

[Antonio the Sixth]

People are a bit late on the pickup? Anyhow, It's fun to assign ideological labels like "centrist" or "centre-right" to voters in a place which has lost all sense of left-right politics in recent years, but in reality the bulk of the remnants of Urbaniak's vote are a personal vote in Noyelles-Godault (where he won 40.3% against 31.5% for Marine), where he has been mayor since 1983. And Noyelles-Godault is hardly any different from the other communes. Marine won 32% there and won 48% in the 2007 runoff.

I should be posting my predictions tonight.

Great. I am in urgent need to relativize my euphoria post-Fab and Zanas' predictions.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Can we find a list of all qualified candidates who dropped out somewhere ? I'm curious to see how it will affect certain races.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So that asshole Karimet didn't drop out ? Couldn't that cost Dosière the election ?

[Antonio the Sixth]

One of my bros, who lives in La Rochelle, just posted this link to me:

http://www.arretsurimages.net/vite.php?id=14017

13 headlines for Hollande's wife twit.

...insane.

Indeed, this is ridiculous.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Alright, here's a little map I've been working on. Candidates qualified for the second round (including those who dropped out) :


(click for higher resolution)

Left wins by 1st round : 25 (dark red)
Left VS left : 22 (red)
Left VS other : 7 (pink)
Left VS far-right : 21 (orange)
Left VS left VS far-right : 1 (light orange)
Left VS left VS right : 8 (purplish fuchsia)
Left VS right : 426 (purple)
Left VS right VS other : 2 (light purple)
Left VS right VS right : 4 (purplish blue)
Left VS right VS far-right : 31 (yellow)
Right VS far-right : 9 (turquoise)
Right VS other : 5 (light blue)
Right VS right : 5 (blue)
Right wins by 1st round : 11 (dark blue)

Which means the left is qualified in 547 races, the right for 501, the far-right for 62, other in 14. There are 36 first round winners, 495 two-way races and 46 three-way races.

Even though it's a pretty useless map, comments are welcome since I spent more than three days to finish it.

[Antonio the Sixth]

You and Fab are pretty close after all.

Anyways, fascinating stuff. Thank you.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Morano finally showed the true face of modern French right. Massive kudos to Gérald Dahan for this little trick.

Glad to see some people found my map interesting. :) BTW, here are the corrected totals accounting for qualified candidates who dropped out (this is based on Andrea's list, as I have no idea how to verify by myself).

Left wins by 1st round : 25 39 (plus Cher-2, Nord-16, 17, 19, HdS-1, SSD-1, 4, 6, 7, 11, VdM-10, 11, SM-3, 8)
Left VS left : 22 8 (minus Cher-2, Nord-16, 17, 19, HdS-1, SSD-1, 4, 6, 7, 11, VdM-10, 11, SM-3, 8)
Left VS other : 7
Left VS far-right : 21 23 (plus BdR-13, 16)
Left VS left VS far-right : 1 0 (minus BdR-13)
Left VS left VS right : 8 2 (minus Aude-2, Finistère-3, 6, HG-3, PdC-6, HdS-11)
Left VS right : 426 436 (plus Aude-2, Finistère-3, 6, HG-3, Morbihan-2, PdC-6, PO-2, Yvelines-3, Vaucluse-5, HdS-11)
Left VS right VS other : 2
Left VS right VS right : 4 2 (minus Morbihan-2, Yvelines-3)
Left VS right VS far-right : 31 28 (minus BdR-16, PO-2, Vaucluse-5)
Right VS far-right : 9
Right VS other : 5
Right VS right : 5 4 (minus Paris-4)
Right wins by 1st round : 11 12 (plus Paris-4)

[Antonio the Sixth]

) BTW, here are the corrected totals accounting for qualified candidates who dropped out (this is based on Andrea's list, as I have no idea how to verify by myself).

I've spotted a mistake in my original list. I then added 3 more PS who are running as only candidates on Sunday. It's due to 3 more FG withdrawals (Val de Marne 11, Seine Maritime 3 and

Rectified accordingly. Where do you get your sources ? From the news, or is there an official list somewhere ?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Oh yes, I knew that one, but nothing specific for dropouts I guess.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Ok, people, I don't know 1/1000 of what you know about French politics... But Hash, you didn't need to be rude (I think you were, sorry). I felt like an idiot.

This is Hash, you'd better get used to it. We are great friends, yet on a couple occasions he was pretty rude to me as well.


And Foucaulf is absolutely right on législatives. That's exactly what sucks about our political system.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So, the picture looks roughly the same as in first round. That doesn't mean, however, that it's the same people who turned out to vote...

[Antonio the Sixth]

BTW, Gaël, I assume there will be a #legislatives2012 party once again on mibbit ?

[Antonio the Sixth]

linky dinky?

Mibbit

#legislatives2012

Can't find it.

[Antonio the Sixth]

AP says the socialists will have an outright majority in parliament

NO SPOILER

Thx.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Here's the final result, assuming French abroad seats went as I've been told :

FG : 10
PS : 280
DVG : 22
PRG : 12
EELV : 17

Total left : 341

Regionalists : 2
MoDem : 2

AC : 2
PR : 6
NC : 12
DVD : 15
UMP : 194

Total right : 229

FN : 2
EXD : 1