France 2012: Official Results Thread

[Antonio the Sixth]

---DISCLAIMER---

So, just for you to know, if Sarkozy were to win today, here is what will happen.

First of all, I will post a long list of swear words which would make it impossible, even for a lenient mod like Al, not to give me 10 infraction points. Then, I would probably leave the forum for several days (or even weeks) and engage in the most futile and self-destructive activities I can (eating chocolate, playing videogames, etc). When I'll be back, don't expect me to discuss policies or political evolutions of countries. I'll probably limit my contribution to FC, what-ifs and other fun things to do. Here is what you need to know.

If Hollande's win is poor (below 52%), you can also expect me to be very irritable in the following weeks, and not to do anything constructive. I'd probably need to talk with my friends a bit. If his victory is mediocre (below Sarko's 2007 score) expect me to be quite bitter.

So, this is it. I want to believe this will be a great night.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Are you people a bunch of stupid illiterate retards? I told you NOT to post the leaked results. Now go DIAF.

Sry, didn't see it anywhere.

But who cares about if this is leaked or not ?

Some of us like to wait until official results time.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Meh, that's a pathetic result. We deserved >54%, at least.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, we won. That's great. But still pathetically close. This is unfair, so unfair.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, we won. That's great. But still pathetically close. This is unfair, so unfair.

Be happy with what you get!

You won. Your guy gets to run things.

Yeah, I know, I'm naturally pessimistic.

But still, a victory wasn't enough tonight. We needed a great victory. This is a pyrrhic one.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, we won. That's great. But still pathetically close. This is unfair, so unfair.

Be happy with what you get!

You won. Your guy gets to run things.

Yeah, I know, I'm naturally pessimistic.

But still, a victory wasn't enough tonight. We needed a great victory. This is a pyrrhic one.

Likely beating Mitterrand's margin is a Pyrrhic victory? Are you serious?

Doing worse than any single goddam poll in the last 2 years predicted, and doing worse than Sarko had actually done in 2007, is a pyrrhic victory.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Back again after drinking some celebratory cider from Brittany. Very nice as well.

So, anyway, a point of interest already: Hollande carries the Territoire de Belfort.

Not by far.
Sarkozy's map seems to be (again) more FN than in the first round.

Sarkozy won Manche only by 50.1 !

You are probably happy, Fab.

"Entre 51 et 52 pour Hollande, ce serait une grosse déception et un Mélenchon et des Verts revenus dans le jeu législatif, ainsi qu’une droite soulagée et plus à même d’affronter le problème FN."

After all, maybe Buisson was right : France is structurally right-wing.

[Antonio the Sixth]

This is a victory, and I feel sad.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Ah, Sarkozy's record so far:

Corse-du-Sud:

57,6

This is a victory, and I feel sad.

Keep some sadness for the 10th and 17th of May...

It's june.

And apparently a poll says 31% PS, 30% UMP 18% FN, so I know what I can expect.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Ah, Sarkozy's record so far:

Corse-du-Sud:

57,6

This is a victory, and I feel sad.

Keep some sadness for the 10th and 17th of May...

It's june.

And apparently a poll says 31% PS, 30% UMP 18% FN, so I know what I can expect.

Oh yes, sorry, I meant it, is that this PS 'victory' that makes me upside down??!

Oh, and, polls for this wouldn't mean a lot so far, we have to see the rise of this glorious new 'Bleu Marine' movement before, FN doesn't exist anymore.

It's pretty clear how things can go now.

People didn't vote because they like Hollande (and this I can understand), people didn't vote for him because they think he had good ideas, people didn't vote for him because Hollande led the best campaign. Hell, people probably didn't even vote for him because they think Sarkozy is a bad president. They voted for him, barely, because they didn't like Sarkozy. And even then, maybe they just voted Hollande because there's a crisis and they're pissed off at the incumbent.

Whatever will happen now, Hollande begins his term in the worst possible way.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Back again after drinking some celebratory cider from Brittany. Very nice as well.

So, anyway, a point of interest already: Hollande carries the Territoire de Belfort.

Not by far.
Sarkozy's map seems to be (again) more FN than in the first round.

Sarkozy won Manche only by 50.1 !

You are probably happy, Fab.

"Entre 51 et 52 pour Hollande, ce serait une grosse déception et un Mélenchon et des Verts revenus dans le jeu législatif, ainsi qu’une droite soulagée et plus à même d’affronter le problème FN."

After all, maybe Buisson was right : France is structurally right-wing.

Well, Hollande himself said that below 52, it would be "étriquée" as a victory (narrow).

And I could not agree more.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So, Hollande finished below Mitterrand'81. Huzzah.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Almost identically. Mitterrand 1981: 51.76%. Hollande in 2012 (with 99.9% reporting): 51.7%

With French abroad, I hope it will be 51.5, not more

Don't be too sad, Antonio.
When you see the first polls for legislative elections, a 1997 scenario is likely.
Of course, between now and June 10th and 17th, there will be many impediments for him: Merkel, Moody's and Fitch, financiel markets, problems in Afghanistan, Melenchon, all the potential ministers who won't be ministers, etc.
Still, I'm doubtful the left won't be able to have a majority.
The problem: will the PS be able to have a mjority on its own ?
How have they been so stupid to give so many potential seats to the Greens ?!
Irepeat myself, but...

Meh, I don't know what to expect anymore. I'm on "wait and see" mode from now on. What I think we need ? We need an absolute majority for the PS, and a solid left win. Ideally 350-400 seats, of which over 300 for the PS. What I think will happen ? No idea. Hell, the right might even pull a win. The voters seem to have gone utterly crazy...

[Antonio the Sixth]

75.68% of voters cast a valid ballot. This is barely more than in 1995 and 2002, and more than 10 points less than in 1974 (86.17%, all-time record). Hollande won 39.06% of registered voters, less than any winner except Pompidou in 1969, and also less than two losers (Mitterrand'74 and Giscard'81).

[Antonio the Sixth]

75.68% of voters cast a valid ballot. This is barely more than in 1995 and 2002, and more than 10 points less than in 1974 (86.17%, all-time record). Hollande won 39.06% of registered voters, less than any winner except Pompidou in 1969, and also less than two losers (Mitterrand'74 and Giscard'81).

FN voters most likely casting the invalid ballots.

Speaking of invalid ballots, they are 4.66%, the second-biggest number, only lower than 1995 (4.76%).

[Antonio the Sixth]

For completion's sake (even though it hurts...) :



Epic fail is epic.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Comparison of the 2nd round victories of French Presidents:

1965: De Gaulle - 55.2%
1969: Pompidou - 57.5%
1974: Giscard - 50.81%
1981: Mitterrand - 51.76%
1988: Mitterrand - 54.02%
1995: Chirac - 52.64%
2002: Chirac - 82.21%
2007: Sarkozy - 53.06%
2012: Hollande - 51.63%

Best result: Chirac 2002
Best result under "normal" circumstances: Pompidou 1969
Worst result: Giscard 1974

1969 arguably wasn't "normal". Turnout was dreadful and the runoff opposed two right wingers (the latter explains the former, of course).

[Antonio the Sixth]

I believe the anti christ will be a socialist, so for him to control europe, he will need socialist governments in place. I believe that we are seeing bible prophecy fulfilled. These people don't want balanced budgets, they don't want austerity, and many don't want to work, they want a nanny government to take care of them, and this is why the anti christ will be so well received. I can see his campaign slogan now, TRUST ME, I WILL TAKE CARE OF YOU, it will require a little mark though, in your hand or forehead. I believe he will confiscate the wealth of the developed countries, and the wealth left behind by raptured saints. THis will cause commerce to prosper, as the Bible says. Just imagine the stimulus effect this would have. I believe we might already know this man, although I don't have a clue who he is.

... Are you kidding me... i was going to report this, as it is extremely offensive to me as a Socialist/Social democrat but i've decided to let it be as the rediculousness of your comments will cause most of us to just laugh or shake our heads. I am hoping that this was intended to be ironic or sarcastic, but yikes.
... didn't we have an anti-christ already? Oh ya wasn't he a Nazi... an extreme right-wing facist capitalist?
If you can't have an adult conversation without bursting into Falwell then please go, i'm sure their is a religious zealot message board somewhere (do ppl still say message board? lol)

It was obviously sarcastic. King is a good poster.

[Antonio the Sixth]

One of the nicest moments of the election night.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-z1L7xxmQsU

ok... i've just realised this now... both Thomas Hollande and Jean Sarkozy (the sons) are both very Hot, very attractive men... gah

and i guess i am just learning about him, sounds like a fun guy

Jean Sarkozy looks like an arrogant stupid young rich asshole (which is what he probably is). Thomas Hollande looks like a naive lefty student. Two living stereotypes.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Comparison of the 2nd round victories of French Presidents:

1965: De Gaulle - 55.2%
1969: Pompidou - 57.5%
1974: Giscard - 50.81%
1981: Mitterrand - 51.76%
1988: Mitterrand - 54.02%
1995: Chirac - 52.64%
2002: Chirac - 82.21%
2007: Sarkozy - 53.06%
2012: Hollande - 51.63%

Best result: Chirac 2002
Best result under "normal" circumstances: Pompidou 1969
Worst result: Giscard 1974

1969 arguably wasn't "normal". Turnout was dreadful and the runoff opposed two right wingers (the latter explains the former, of course).

Yes, but Poher was a mainstream anti-gaullist right candidate. Le Pen was not "mainstream" by any standards.

Of course. Still I think it's fairer to include only classical left-right confrontations in the "normal" category. Not that it makes the picture any brighter for Hollande. Even more so if you look at the % of registered voters instead of valid votes.

[Antonio the Sixth]

What I really wonder is : would Sarkozy have won with one week more ? Or would the voters have settled with this standing ? Just thinking to it makes me shudder.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Awesome map !

It's impressive how nearly all major cities have voted for Hollande... Is the PS turning into the democratic party ?

[Antonio the Sixth]

No, this map has a curious shape. A question of projection ?


Anyway, just to give a link to the lil' essay of Fourquet, from IFOP, on the French presidential election:
http://www.jean-jaures.org/Publications/Les-essais/Le-sens-des-cartes

I read that a few days ago. It's pretty interesting, but in the end he's basically restating the things I wrote in my own analysis after the runoff

Great minds think alike.