If the US hadn't intervened in Irak...

[Antonio the Sixth]

While thinking about the bloodbath in Syria and the Arab Spring, the though just crossed my mind. If Saddam hadn't been overthrown in 2003, Irak would likely have been affected by the Arab Spring too. That's why I'm interested in knowing your speculations on these issues. I've tried to include all the possible outcomes, even though some of them aren't much likely (I'd rule out options 1, 7 or .

Personally, I think the situation of Irak had the possibility to become as bloody as Libya and Syria, considering the strong religious and ethnic divide, and the bitterness of those categories toward the regime. No idea what the international community would have done, but without the disaster that was the 2003 Irak intervention, it's easy to imagine the US being still in an interveintionist mood.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Why is it spelled Irak in French? It seems odd, seeing as that k isn't a French letter (if it were fully Gallicized, it would be Irac). Is the letter qaf transliterated as k in French?

I honestly have no idea. Iraq would make more sense, indeed.

[Antonio the Sixth]

and Saddam is more of a bad guy than Gaddafi under pretty much any reasonable definition.

Really ? I'm not saying Saddam was significantly better, but the two seem at least comparable in terms of hideousness. Hasn't Gaddafi has done his fair deal of atrocities too ?

[Antonio the Sixth]

OK, I stand corrected.

[Antonio the Sixth]

if the US hadn't pushed for sanctions in the 90s and 00s then he very possibly would have faced serious trouble.  but God knows, counterfactuals are largely useless.

But they're fun.