2011 French Senate Election

[Antonio the Sixth]

BTW, left already has 2 seats, one in each of Guadeloupe and Martinique (1st round results up). One more and it's official.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The Left is new Right in France. Traditionally Left won all important elections and Right won all non-important. Nowadays its opposite.

While not absolutely essential, the control of Senate is something important. It will radically change the balance of power whatever are the 2012 results : if the right wins, their ability to pass bills will be reduced (though they should still be able to pass stuff), especially on institutional issues. And if the left win, they'll have for the first time a total control over institutions, with an unseen ability to reform.

Yes, I too believe that we will not see anything of that ability to reform.

Don't be such a jinx Lewis. I know the French left has blown a lot of opportunities in the past, but they certainly would achieve significant changes if the win in 2012.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Time for some maps !


Net results (ie difference between # of left and right seats) :




Net gain for the left :




Please be nice, as these are my first election maps. I'll add Outre-Mer tomorrow (if I have the time).

[Antonio the Sixth]

I like how France and Germany are moving left. Why aren't more European countries following suit?

What about Italy and Denmark ?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Updated tab with Martinique and Guadeloupe :

Départ.	Results	Left gain
Ind&L	3-0	+1
Isère	3-2	+1
Jura	0-2	NC
Landes	2-0	NC
L&Ch	1-1	+1
Loire	3-1	+1
Hte L	0-2	NC
L At	3-2	+1
Loiret	1-2	NC
Lot	2-0	NC
Lo&G	1-1	+1
Lozère	1-0	+1
M&L	2-2	+1
Manche	1-2	NC
Marne	0-3	NC
Hte Mar	0-2	NC
Mayenne	0-2	NC
M&M	2-2	NC
Meuse	0-2	NC
Morbihan	3-0	+2
Moselle	2-3	-1
Nièvre	2-0	NC
Nord	7-4	+1
Oise	2-2	+1
Orne	0-2	NC
PdC	5-2	+1
PdD	3-0	+1
Pyr-Atl	2-1	+1
Hts Pyr	2-0	NC
Pyr-Or	1-1	+1
Paris	8-4	+1
S&M	3-3	NC
Yvelines	2-4	+1
Essonne	3-2	NC
HdS	3-4	+1
SSD	4-2	NC
VdM	4-2	+1
VdO	3-2	NC
Guade	3-0	+2
Martin	2-0	NC
Réunion	2-2	+1
Mayotte	1-1	+1
Nv Cal	0-2	NC
SP&M	1-0	+1
Fr. Et.	2-4	+1
Total	95-75	+25
Seats not up	82-96	NC
Ov. Results	177-171	+25

[Antonio the Sixth]

Updated maps with Outre-Mer and French Abroad :

Results :




Gains :

[Antonio the Sixth]

Don't be such a jinx Lewis. I know the French left has blown a lot of opportunities in the past, but they certainly would achieve significant changes if the win in 2012.

There's a difference between having the technical ability to make major changes and actually making major changes. After the 1981 elections Mitterrand had one of the largest parliamentary majorities for any Left government in European history (might it actually have been the largest? Just under 68% of seats, so bigger than 1945 or 1997 in Britain. And most other countries have some form of PR) and while there were certainly many welcome and long-overdue reforms...

Well, Mitterrand didn't reform the constitution because he was a power-hungry opportunist who was fine with the presidential domination as long as he had it. That said, his first years of power saw massive and quite radical reforms in a lot of domains which still have a lot of impact today (despite the right's continuous attempts to bring some of them down). If the PS reforms as much as Mitterrand did in 1981-83, it should be ridiculous not to be satisfied.
Also, if we have a chance to have a policy-oriented candidate (coughAubrycough) rather than a personalist one (coughHollandecough), there's a fair chance that this time we can significantly reform our outdated institutions.

[Antonio the Sixth]

And a potential President of France if Sarkozy dies of a heart attack during his rare sessions of running of cycle-riding, is made hostage by AQMI or is declared insane by Doktor Jean-François Kahn

"Si le prochain président du Sénat est socialiste, Nicolas Sarkozy aura donc l'impression qu'il lui tâtera le pouls chaque fois qu'il lui serrera la main." said Le Figaro.

Of course being Acting President is utterly useless.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The RDSE group may well die (and we all be sad ): most of right radicals seem to rally the Union centriste group, in which tensions are high between NC senators and AC ones (probably with MoDem pushing the latter against the former).

Wow, another secular tradition is about to end...

Where would the radicals side in this case ? In the socialist group like in the Assemblée ? Or will they form a RCV-like group with EELV ?

[Antonio the Sixth]

The RDSE group may well die (and we all be sad ): most of right radicals seem to rally the Union centriste group, in which tensions are high between NC senators and AC ones (probably with MoDem pushing the latter against the former).

Wow, another secular tradition is about to end...

Where would the radicals side in this case ? In the socialist group like in the Assemblée ? Or will they form a RCV-like group with EELV ?

This is just a possibility, don't go too fast.
And with many DVG, the group may survive. All the more if the threshold to form a group is downsized to 10, just to make it possible for Greens to have a group. Ridiculous but probable.

Yeah, I'm all for allowing pluralism, but 10 senators for a group is silly... That's less than 3%. All the more that the greenies could easily find five random lefties to side with them.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Time to take a look at Hash's predictions. I'll assign numbers according to the realization of his predictions (not for the sake of rating, just to has some elements of comparison ). I'll give 1 when his prediction was realized, 0.7 when one of the two alternative is realized, and 0 when the results were totally unpredicted.

Indre et Loire : Left overperformance 0
Isère : As predicted, pro-right option 0.7
Jura : As predicted, pro-right option 0.7
Landes : As predicted 1
Loir-et-Cher : As predicted, pro-left option 0.7
Loire : As predicted, pro-left option 0.7
Haute-Loire : As predicted 1
Loire-Atlantique : As predicted 1
Loiret : As predicted, pro-left option 0.7
Lot : As predicted 1
Lot-et-Garronne : As predicted 1
Lozère : As predicted, pro-left option 0.7
Maine-et-Loire : As predicted, pro-left option 0.7
Manche : Left overperformance 0
Marne : As predicted 1
Haute-Marne : As predicted 1
Mayenne : As predicted 1
Meurthe-et-Moselle : As predicted 1
Meuse : As predicted 1
Morbihan : Left over-overperformance 0
Moselle : As predicted, pro-right option 0.7
Nièvre : As predicted 1
Nord : As predicted, pro-right option 0.7
Oise : As predicted, pro-left option 0.7
Orne : As predicted 1
Pas-de-Calais : As predicted 1
Puy-de-Dôme : As predicted 1
Pyrénées-Atlantiques : As predicted 1
Hautes-Pyrénées : As predicted 1
Pyrénées-Orientales : As predicted 1
Paris : As predicted, pro-right option 0.7
Seine-et-Marne : As predicted, pro-right option 0.7
Yvelines : As predicted 1
Essonne : As predicted 1
Hauts-de-Seine : As predicted 1
Seine-Saint-Denis : Right overperformance 0
Val-de-Marne : As predicted, pro-left option 0.7
Val-d'Oise : As predicted 1
Guadeloupe : As predicted 1
Martinique : As predicted 1
Réunion : Right overperformance 0
Mayotte : Right overperformance 0
Nouvelle Calédonie : As predicted, pro-right option 0.7
St. Pierre et Miquelon : As predicted 1
French Abroad : As predicted 1

Correctly predicted : 25
Option considered : 14
Wrongly predicted : 6

=> 34.8/45 = 77%


Departements where one outcome was predicted (30)
- Predicted outcome : 17 gains, 1 loss
- Actual outcome : 15 gains, 0 losses

Departements where two outcomes were predicted (15)
- Most pro-right outcome : 3 gains, 3 losses
- Most pro-left outcome : 15 gains, 0 losses
- Actual outcome : 9 gains (+2 Morbihan, not predicted), 1 loss

[Antonio the Sixth]

Placé is a stupid hack and if the greens get their 10-members group it will be quite pathetic. However, let's be fair : 35 seats in the AN is what a party like EELV should get with a fair electoral system (maybe even more than that, actually), and I don't see any reason to deny them.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Well yeah, that's a bit of a pity, but considering the modern trend toward bipolarization it hardly could have be avoided...

Of course the best for the PS would be to have an absolute majority with no "allies" to worry about. But that's not in the left's traditions, probably.

[Antonio the Sixth]

At which hour will the election take place ?

[Antonio the Sixth]

On the first round, and with 2 more votes ! Awesome.

So all this right-wing hope was a mere bluff. I suspected it, but you never know...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Antonio, Sarkozy has apparently asked to Larcher to not do that.
The left had claimed very quickly its victory.
Them losing would would have looked as a backdoor deal, which voters wouldn't like.

True, that would make sense. Still, Larcher couldn't even gather all his political side (even if you don't count the UC vote).


So, will the group threshold be eventually lowered or not ? Considering Placé didn't get any vote, I guess he won't have any leverage on this decision. If radicals are in the same situation than greens, I think a RCV-like group is the most probable outcome.