Which states will shift Republican over the next few decades? (user search)

Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution

Posts: 58,375

Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

Re: Which states will shift Republican over the next few decades?

« on: March 12, 2011, 08:49:31 AM »

I'd say Minnesota, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania could shift rep in the long term.

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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution

Posts: 58,375

Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

Re: Which states will shift Republican over the next few decades?

« Reply #1 on: March 12, 2011, 10:31:36 AM »

Quote from: Rockingham on March 12, 2011, 10:04:50 AM

What about Washington, Oregon and Michigan?

WA and OR are trending dem and will keep trending dem. Hard to tell for Michigan, but I don't see it turning rep.

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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution

Posts: 58,375

Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

Re: Which states will shift Republican over the next few decades?

« Reply #2 on: March 13, 2011, 09:45:25 AM »

Michigan is far more solid than Pennsylvania. I can't see it shifting rep before many time.

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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution

Posts: 58,375

Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

Re: Which states will shift Republican over the next few decades?

« Reply #3 on: March 13, 2011, 10:29:32 AM »

Quote from: Nichlemn on March 13, 2011, 10:10:36 AM

Quote from: Senator Antonio V on March 13, 2011, 09:45:25 AM

Michigan is far more solid than Pennsylvania. I can't see it shifting rep before many time.

"Far more solid"? Arguably true for 2008, but not really in any other elections. MI was only slightly more Democratic than PA from 1996-2004, however, it was less Democratic from 1984-1992. Another thing that can be inferred from state trends is that PVIs can change quite quickly.

Also, it's unclear whether you mean "become a Republican-leaning state" or "trend Republican".

IMO, "shifting republican" would imply Michigan being more republican than the nation. Which is, again, doubtful.

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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution

Posts: 58,375

Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

Re: Which states will shift Republican over the next few decades?

« Reply #4 on: April 01, 2011, 04:01:41 AM »

Quote from: freepcrusher on March 31, 2011, 09:15:53 PM

it would be a shame if Minnesota trended republican. This is the state that gave us progressive heroes like Hubert Humphrey, Gene McCarthy, Walter Mondale, Paul Wellstone etc.

I feel like you, but that trend seems very strong. It basically went from D+18 in 1984 to D+2 in 2008.

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