France 2012: the official thread

[Antonio the Sixth]

[Antonio the Sixth]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/nicolas-sarkozy/9189231/Francois-Hollande-would-destroy-Frances-economy-within-two-days-Nicolas-Sarkozy-claims.html

Someone's been stealing from David Cameron's "a re-elected Labour government would turn us into Greece" playbook.

The European right brought us into this sh*t and now they claim they're the only ones who can save us. How lame.

[Antonio the Sixth]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/nicolas-sarkozy/9189231/Francois-Hollande-would-destroy-Frances-economy-within-two-days-Nicolas-Sarkozy-claims.html

Someone's been stealing from David Cameron's "a re-elected Labour government would turn us into Greece" playbook.

The European right brought us into this sh*t and now they claim they're the only ones who can save us. How lame.

European consensus brought the crisis. The left-wing goverments in Spain and Britain did no better when they were still in office.

Yup, that is why Le Pen and Melenchon are the only true alternatives, and Melenchon is the only left-wing alternative. Sarkozy and Hollande are separated only by cosmetic differences, for most intents and purposes. The primary benefit of a Hollande victory for the left-wing would be to show that they can actually win somewhere significant. There is no real benefit for the right-wing except to further demoralize the European left; they would probably be better off in the opposition anyhow.

I sort've agree. This one "one voice, one solution, ignore everything else" mentality of the big EU governments is doing none of us any good. I want to see Hollande elected for various reasons, but the most pressing reason now is so as to get more voices round the table.

European leftist have surely their fair share of repsonsibility, for utterly giving up to the neoliberal right in the past two decades. However, while I don't know if the European left will save Europe, what I know for sure is that with the European right, Europe is screwed. Hollande might not be what we need today, but it's the only realistic possibility we have to avoid the worse.

(of course, Hollande alose is useless, so we have to pray for Italy and Germany as well, in 2013).

[Antonio the Sixth]

Which crisis do you mean? Half the problem is that there's more than one, even if they're related.

The key of the problem is, IMO, the lack of coordination in economic policies at the European level. In short, we need EuroBonds to end the debt crisis once forever, and we need a pan-european stimulus bill to restore growth.

[Antonio the Sixth]

(of course, Hollande alose is useless, so we have to pray for  Germany as well, in 2013).

Unless something really major happens to the SPD - either a dramatic turnaround and policy renewal or a wholesale collapse - fuggeddaboudit.

Even if we don't get a fully left-wing coalition, getting rid the FDP will be a great step forward nonetheless.

[Antonio the Sixth]

2012 Big Bad Tracker #49 - 9 April 2012   

The weighting is now diminishing each week as follows: 1 / 0.5   

      

Hollande   27,33
Sarkozy   28,39
Le Pen   15,31
Bayrou   10,86
Mélenchon   13,54
Joly   2,23
Dupont-Aignan   0,98
Arthaud   0,66
Poutou   0,63
Cheminade   0,08


Hollande   54,27
Sarkozy   45,73

Will Sarkozy get a poll boost from winning the first round?

He got a slight boost in 2007 IIRC.

Post 1st-round boosts don't really depend on actual performances as much as they depend on the difference between those performances and expectations (a bit like, in the US, the result of a State Primary affects pollings in other States). If Sarko does significantly better than what polling suggests, he might get a boost, but otherwise probably not.

[Antonio the Sixth]

In 1995 and 1988, the 'second round boost' was worth 2 and 3 points respectively - both times in favour of the left. In 2007, there was at most a 1 percentage point boost for Sarkozy.

Wait, you mean Mitterrand was only leading 51-49 in 1988 before the 1st round ?

[Antonio the Sixth]

In 1995 and 1988, the 'second round boost' was worth 2 and 3 points respectively - both times in favour of the left. In 2007, there was at most a 1 percentage point boost for Sarkozy.

Wait, you mean Mitterrand was only leading 51-49 in 1988 before the 1st round ?

No, he led 53-47 in the final poll before the first round and led 56-44 in the first poll after the first round. Hence a 3 point boost for him.

That was an exceptionally strong and short-lived boost in this case. Or, more likely, something to do with margins of error.

[Antonio the Sixth]

What did he say ?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Apparently, a Swedish girl has made a fan video for Melenchon called "Conquer me, Jean-Luc" because when she saw him at a campaign event ahead of 120.000 supporters she fell in love with his charisma ...

http://derstandard.at/1334132456965/Uebernimm-die-Macht-ueber-mich-Jean-Luc-Schwedische-Unterstuetzung-fuer-Melenchon

Having a hot swede fall in love with you is probably the wet dream of every left-winger. Though maybe Mélenchon would prefer cubans...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Extremely late I know, but here are the usual graphs :

[Antonio the Sixth]

The most recent polls seem to give Hollande a small edge (even though it might be due to their bias). Basically, OpinionWay and IFOP have Sarko ahead (by 1 and 1.5 respectively) whereas LH2, BVA, TNS-Sofres and CSA see Hollande back in lead (by 2.5, 3, 2 and 1). OpinionWay and IFOP usually tend to favor Sarko whereas LH2 and BVA tend to favor Hollande. CSA seems to be especially crappy this year and Sofres has been quite weird. So, I'd say it is either a virtual tie or a small edge to Hollande.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So what are the odds of Sarkozy pulling this off?

With my usual pessimism, I'd give him 10%. I'm pretty sure Nate would give him less than 5%.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So what are the odds of Sarkozy pulling this off?

With my usual pessimism, I'd give him 10%. I'm pretty sure Nate would give him less than 5%.

Oh that sure of it? For some reason I was still thinking about 2:1 odds or so.

He's polling at 45-46 with 3 weeks left. That means he would have to pick up 1.5 point per week to win. You'll agree that in our electoral experience this doesn't happen quite often.

Note that 10% is still far from "almost impossible". I'm pretty sure that Fabien would be even more confident over the outcome.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Sorry Haven't been following the everyday events closely. Just had it in my head that Sarkozy was much stronger than anyone would have expected, look for a closer race, etc.

Thanks for the information.

He made pretty impressive gains in the second half of March, overtaking Hollande in the first round and improving his 2nd round performance from 43-44 to 46-47, but nowadays his momentum is gone, and he's back to a virtual tie in the 1st round and a 45-46 score in the second. The trends in the final weeks before the 1st round will be important to follow, but I doubt he could pull any upset at this point (his best chance would be to beat Hollande and perform over 30% so as to get a post-results bounce, but he's far from reaching this goal).

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, Sarkozy seems to have fallen back again from 46/47% to about 44% recently. And also in the 1st round he seems to be slightly behind. Any reasons for that ?

His campaign has been particularly inaudible these recent times, with the presentation of his official program being an utter flop and his recent nitpicking on unimportant issues like driver's licence. The fact that, the official campaign having begun, all candidates are entitled to the exact same airtime on radio and TV, also prevents him from monopolising attention as he constantly strives to.

Hollande hasn't done much recently, but my impression is that voters are apreciating his constance and his reluctance to change his political positioning and strategy at every occasion as Sarkozy does. He's clearly seen as a reassuring figure and Sarkozy has so far been unable to damage this image.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I've read in my "Standard" newspaper that I subscribe to that because the media has to give every candidate the same airtime now and because there are some crazy candidates in there the media doesn't really want to report about, the media isn't airing that much about the major candidates either compared with previous campaigns. True ?

That might be true to some extent, even though 2012 is certainly not the worst campaign in terms of crazy candidates sh*tfest (see 2002 as the absolute worst). There haven't been much news about the presidential campaign in the last day, apart from the usual "XXX is holding a meeting in YYY today" (and they also mentioned the "prends le pouvoir sur moi" clip on the radio today ). I'd understand pretty well if media don't want to spend all this time talking about Lyndon LaRouche Jr., Philippe "Smack" or the stalinist lady (who, hilariously, is an economics teacher).

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That's getting weird. The two most recent polls (CSA and TNS) have shown him at unseen heights (17% and 16% respectively), whereas the preceding ones seemed to suggest he had peaked at 14% and was starting to decrease a bit. CSA has an epically poor track record, constantly showing results very far from the consensus among pollsters and in a very erratic and illogical way (for example, this poll also showed Hollande losing 2 points and Sarrko losing 4(!) while the second round was back to early march levels - 57/43). TNS-sofres is a bit less erratic, but hasn't polled much in this cycle so it has to be taken carefully. So, so far, it's hard to tell. Personally, I have a hard time seeing Mélenchon above 15% (considering the left's tendency to regroup among Hollande to make sure he's not in danger) and since Le Pen has solidified her support to 15-16%, I don't think he will overtake her. There is still a possibility, of course.

[Antonio the Sixth]

no chance of Melenchon nipping Hollande (or Sarko) at the wire, right?

Nope.

[Antonio the Sixth]

0.01% ? ROFL

So, the final version of your tracker will only include polls from today to friday 20 ? How many can we expect in these 5 days ?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Chirac to vote for Hollande....

He had said that long ago.

But still, what an ridiculous situation for Sarko...

[Antonio the Sixth]

I know it's not the best story to have a prominent member of your party broadcast that they are voting against you but is this really bad for Sarkozy overall? Isn't Chirac unpopular?

No, he's become very popular since he left office.

(...which comes as a confirmation of the fact the French are morons, but that's besides the point)

[Antonio the Sixth]

(...which comes as a confirmation of the fact the French are morons, but that's besides the point)

I'm sure Phil will have no trouble agreeing with that

Italians are even dumber, however.

[Antonio the Sixth]

(...which comes as a confirmation of the fact the French are morons, but that's besides the point)

I'm sure Phil will have no trouble agreeing with that

Italians are even dumber, however.

And you say this about your own blood. Disgraceful. Anyway, let's get back on topic, boys: Sarkozy will be re-elected.

Being loyal to my origins doesn't mean being deluded about my compatriots. Fact is, all the people of all countries in the earth are, in majority, a bunch of idiots. Recognizing this historical truth doesn't mean betraying them or rejecting them (since, fundamentally, it is not really their fault but that of the society they grew into).

[Antonio the Sixth]

If Hollande wins, he's the first left-winger in one of the big EU countries to win without swinging right since...?

Jospin, I guess.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Daniel Hannan's take on this election:

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http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100150853/if-nicolas-sarkozy-thinks-the-ft-is-a-free-market-newspaper-hes-even-more-extreme-than-we-realised/

I don't think I could hate a Tory as much a Dan Hannan. And I don't think any are that deluded.

I actually think he's an asset to the Left. I mean, he's openly critical of the NHS.

Don't understand why he hasn't joined UKIP yet.

Or why he hasn't taken American nationality and joined the GOP.