France 2012: the official thread

[Antonio the Sixth]

200 is not a representative sample, let alone tinier ones... I'm not saying that because I don't believe polls (they all show roughly the same numbers, so it's evident Hollande is a huge favorite), but those who criticize primary polls have legitimate grounds.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Couldn't watch the debate because of Sciences Po course. Don't know if I4d have watched it anyways, because I don't have I-Télé and didn't really want to watch it online.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Hollande more credible on "social" stuff (unemployment, cost of living...) : that means Aubry is really done.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Shocker : Borloo not running. It looks like he wasn't as "willing" as he made us believe...

So, Fab, what happens now ? Will Morin take his place (at some point he seemed quite willing to run) ? Otherwise, where will his voters go ? Medias keep saying this is wonderful news for Sarkozy, but I doubt all his voters will go to him. A few of those will, but there could be a lot of transfers to Bayrou, Joly or even Hollande. What do you think ?

[Antonio the Sixth]

I LOVE when Fab gets utterly pessimistic.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Great, I'll be following your blog.

I'm really curious to see what will happen with Borloo's voters in the 1st round. So far, all the polls have included him...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Fabulous blog, Fab. I'll be sure to include it on my blogroll.

This, Congratulations and thanks

I subscribe. I'll follow this bolg enthusiastically.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Last debate in 25 minutes. Hopefully we'll see interesting stuff.

[Antonio the Sixth]

An excellent debate, with all candidates having a pretty decent showing (even Royal wasn't too awful). I think this debate will really benefit the left above all, allowing them to really develop their positions and show to the voters a pretty consistent program (because really, except Montebourg, the programs are quite similar).

As for the "winners", there is none really. Hollande was less good than in the first debate, and at some point he seemed a bit "brouillon". But at the same time Aubry wasn't particularly strong (even though she was good enough) and probably didn't create a particular momentum.

Let's see how things go, but Hollande will most probably win.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Hell Fab, do we really have to disagree on everything ?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Indeed I've not watched the second debate so it's hard for me to tell. But at least compared to the 1st one what I've especially liked is the fact they developed issue in a more approfondite way. Not in the "confrontational" sense as as I've said they all agree on 99% except Montebourg, but more in a "common" way : they clearly and precisely exposed all the disasters caused by Sarkozy and the PS's solutions to fix things. As I've already said, the true winner of this debate is the PS as a whole.

As for Aubry, she's far better on content (if even you acknowledge this, it can't not be true ) and for this reason I think her lead, though smaller, is more solid than Hollande's. It's only a gut feeling though, so I might be wrong (and hope so since Hollande will be the PS's candidate).

[Antonio the Sixth]

A bit late, but here are the updated graphs.

Aubry




Hollande




I'll update them next week and the week after, as these will be the last two trackers before we have the eventual PS candidate.

BTW, Fab, you still put Hollande at 0.6 ? That's getting ridiculous...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Anyways, looks like there was indeed a tiny "post-Senate bounce" (in fact more of a post-Senate drop for Sarkozy) which put both candidates in a very comfortable position. Mélenchon surged this week (probably a side-effect of Montebourg as Fab said), and thus we have him, Borloo and Bayrou virtually tied. Now I'm really curious to see the post-Borloo polls (will they poll Morin ??).

[Antonio the Sixth]

Fab, what you could do to make the graphs prettier would be to replace rough lines with trendlines based on a polynomial regression. It helps seeing long-term trends rather than statistical noise.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I have linear trend and exponential trend, but they add nothing to what you can see by yourself: Hollande slightly up, Aubry down, Montebourg up and Royal slightly down

Now, for a polynomial regression... we are already Friday... Sunday will come soon...

It's stronger than me, I just love pretty graphs.

[Antonio the Sixth]

BTW, did you hear about Delanoë ? Praising Aubry, he repeated "courage" and "détermination" at least 5 times ! Hilarious.

[Antonio the Sixth]

If the 1st number is the right one, I've some reason not to lose all hope for Aubry.

Also, LOL @ Royal.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Go to my blog, Antonio, you'll have your polynomial regression

You didn't see my comments ?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Indeed, I'm expecting a fun election tomorrow. Let's see.

I'll ask the same, boring question as usual : when will we get the first results ? Well, at least this time there's no time zone issue.

Maxime Brunerie, the far-right nut who tried to shoot Chirac, has endorsed Segolene. In 2009, he had joined the MoDem. I see that the crazies attract the crazy.

ROFL. That's really the last thing she needed.

[Antonio the Sixth]

21 ? I know polling stations will probably be overworked, but it's quite a shame it takes so much time.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Still no turnout numbers ?

[Antonio the Sixth]

If you want to know who are the favorites, have a look at Fab's nice graph.



2nd round is almost certain, and almost certainly will be Hollande vs Aubry.


Otherwise, anyone who's registered to vote can vote in the primaries, as long as he signs a paper stating his attachment to "left-wing values". So, theoretically as many as 45 milion people can vote. More realistically, turnout is expected to be between 1 and 4 milion, which would be a huge success in any case.

And I doubt the money could go to the PS campaign. Probably it will just pay for the costs of organization.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Oh, I didn't told you ? I can't vote, those stupid municipal services decided they won't register me until november (I'm 18 since march !!). When I realized that, the PS deadline was already over. You can imagine how pissed off I am.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Sorta livestream here http://partisocialiste.tumblr.com/

Not unbiased of course, but who cares ?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Oh, I didn't told you ? I can't vote, those stupid municipal services decided they won't register me until november (I'm 18 since march !!). When I realized that, the PS deadline was already over. You can imagine how pissed off I am.

Oh... very sorry for you.

According to the 50 test-polling stations from Hololande's staff, Montebourg is 3rd.

Mon^tpellier-centre has put Aubry ahead of Hollande. Maybe just students and urban people and the influence of anti-frechist mayor, but, still, I have a bad feeling...

When you have a bad feeling, that always gives me a good feeling.

I'm not dreaming, though. Let's wait and see.