Liminal Trans Girl
Lawer
Jr. Member
Posts: 1,494
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« on: November 28, 2022, 11:55:24 AM » |
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Senate:
I wasn't expecting Schumer to underpreform as much as he did from 2016.
GA is still out so I'll skip that but in NC I expected it to be like 2020
In WI I overestimated Johnson based on Incumbency
In OH I knew Manchin helping Ryan would make them dump money, it wouldn't be enough for Ryan to win but it would pull away from races where it was needed for the GOP.
In IA, Grassley is an 88 year old man in obvious decline
In ND, I didn't know how the Independent would do
In Utah, I thought it would be like 2016 where they would drag the Rs down into the 40s but the Rs still win
In AK, I based it off of the first round
Governor:
In VT, I should've known Scott was a Strong incumbent
In TN, I thought that the Dems would be a lot closer than they were
In KS, I thought that Kelly was strong enough to win a majority
In SD, my data was unreliable
In AZ, I knew that a number of factors would stop an R overperformance like Dobbs, QAnon and Mark Kelly being on the ballot
In NV, my only wrong prediction of the bunch, I knew it would be very close I just didn't know on what side
In OR, I knew that Johnson would not cross 10% and that their Dem bias is overwhelming
In ID, i didn't know Bundy would do so well
In AK, it was based on first round where I under estimated Dunleavy
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