tagimaucia
Jr. Member
Posts: 570
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« on: November 28, 2022, 09:51:19 AM » |
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The biggest takeaway for me from this election cycle is that when the polls are all-over-the-place or saying different things, you should really calibrate your expectations by looking at recent meaningful results that involve actual voters (the Washington State primary, post-Dobbs special elections).
IMO, those indicators were always screaming that it would be close to a neutral year and that a red wave was definitely not in the cards. The Washington primary pretty much perfectly predicted the national environment in 2020 as well, suggesting that it would be a few points closer than the average of the polls.
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