2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[tagimaucia]

The generic ballot looks pretty much the same as it did at the same date for Democrats in 2013, and its maybe a hair better for them than on the same date in 2009.  

Doesn't mean that things will play out exactly the same, but as a realist, I think the most likely outcome is still that things go south for the Democrats over the next 14 months (and even if they don't go south, GOP is likely in a position to at least win the house back at this very moment). I hope I'm wrong!

[tagimaucia]

The generic ballot looks pretty much the same as it did at the same date for Democrats in 2013, and its maybe a hair better for them than on the same date in 2009.  

Doesn't mean that things will play out exactly the same, but as a realist, I think the most likely outcome is still that things go south for the Democrats over the next 14 months (and even if they don't go south, GOP is likely in a position to at least win the house back at this very moment). I hope I'm wrong!

Pollsters using their 2010 and 2014 turnout models are already getting them in huge trouble. It should be pretty clear after Virginia in 6 weeks that the Dems are still showing up to vote and pollsters should adjust accordingly.

How are Registered Voters (RV) (which nearly all the current generic ballot polls are, as opposed to Likely Voters) polls "using 2010 and 2014 turnout models?"  Aren't RV polls by definition not using any type of a turnout model?

[tagimaucia]

Ann Selzer has D+4 nationally


Selzer & Co./Grinnell College poll

Generic Ballot (National)

Dem 46%
Rep 42%

9/20-9/25
739 LV

https://www.grinnell.edu/poll/2022-midterms

[tagimaucia]

It’s very annoying that Selzer does a national poll, but only in March and September(?) and not before actual major elections.

Also, it’s a minor point, but do people not realize that “internals” and partisan polls are not the same thing?  The vast majority (like 90-95%, at least this cycle)  of partisan polls in the RCP/538 averages are not internal campaign polls, they are polls done by partisan firms intended for public consumption.

[tagimaucia]

I see the delusion that the Dems can retain the house is already materializing..

Of course they can. If you think there is literally a 0% chance of it happening, then you are as delusional and hackish as the ones who think it probably will.

House is Safe R and has been for a while.

That's not hackish to suggest.. it's just the realistic conclusion given how dems have consistently had to play defense in districts that if the house was in play, would be easy holds.

Okay, but by this logic, it would have also been hackish to suggest that the house was going to be anything other than a massive dem blowout in 2020, as the republicans were absolutely “playing defense” in districts they ended up winning by high single and double digits.  Sometimes professional politicos polls and models are just plain wrong.  By all accounts, the Mitt Romney campaign also truly thought they were going to win on election day.

[tagimaucia]

I see the delusion that the Dems can retain the house is already materializing..

Of course they can. If you think there is literally a 0% chance of it happening, then you are as delusional and hackish as the ones who think it probably will.

House is Safe R and has been for a while.

That's not hackish to suggest.. it's just the realistic conclusion given how dems have consistently had to play defense in districts that if the house was in play, would be easy holds.

Okay, but by this logic, it would have also been hackish to suggest that the house was going to be anything other than a massive dem blowout in 2020, as the republicans were absolutely “playing defense” in districts they ended up winning by high single and double digits.  Sometimes professional politicos polls and models are just plain wrong.  By all accounts, the Mitt Romney campaign also truly thought they were going to win on election day.

I admire the outright optimism held by some that there is suddenly going to be a massive non response bias, in benefit of dems, due to a few special elections..

Otherwise, the misses have been almost exclusively in one direction.

I'll suggest the house is safe R.. that's my opinion, and it's not hackish to express it.. we'll see on Tuesday.

I mean, I think there’s like a 90% chance the republicans win the house, I think it’s just very ahistorical to say that you can predict that polling error could only possibly occur in one direction based on only the last few elections. Over a long time horizon it has bounced around quite a lot. What would have been the argument before the 2012 election that there could actually be a large bias against democrats in the pols?

[tagimaucia]

It appears that IBD/TIPP (one of the very best long running national pollsters around) was supposed to put out their final generic ballot today or yesterday, but they seem to have simply never published that part of the poll (they did put out Biden approval, economic numbers, etc.).  I suspect that the result they got was too Dem friendly and the editorial staff at IBD spiked it, but who knows.

If they did put out generic ballot numbers and I just missed them, please share a link.