2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2

[tagimaucia]

The Civiqs tracker for the GCB is back up for 2020. It has D+8 right now (51-43)

https://civiqs.com/results/vote_house_generic_2020?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true

Civiqs’ final call for 2018 was D+7 and their tracker was quite stable. That’s under the actual D+8.6 result, but pretty much “correct” if you account for how many districts had no Republican challengers. I give this particular tracker a lot of creedence.

[tagimaucia]

Dems are going to increase their seats in the House at this point.

The final result is often quoted as a consequence of D+9% environment, but wasn't it actually a D+7% environment because of the effects of uncontested seats? That is not going to show up in GCB polls this time.

Actually 2018 was only D+6 if you correct for all uncontested seats.
I think it was poster Dr. RI who did the calculations.

250 seats in the house would be such icing on the cake entering a redistricting year.

The democratic data firm Catalist says it was D+7.2 when you account for uncontested seats on both sides. There’s probably no one exactly right way to calculate that though.

[tagimaucia]

https://www.politico.com/playbook

FIRST LOOK FOR PLAYBOOKERS … MINNESOTA REP. TOM EMMER, the chair of the House GOP’s campaign arm, will use a virtual meeting of House Republican lawmakers this morning to brief them on a new battleground poll the Terrance Group conducted June 7-10 among 1,014 swing voters. Here are the highlights:

THE POLL SHOWS REPUBLICANS hold a 1-point advantage over Democrats on the generic ballot (testing a generic R vs. generic D). … THE ECONOMY is a top concern of voters -- 23% says it’s their top concern, followed by corruption in D.C. at 20% and the coronavirus at 10%. 56% of voters approve of the job the president is doing on the economy. … Unsurprisingly, DEFUNDING POLICE is unpopular, with 59% of swing voters opposed. But 51% support the protests -- which might help explain some of the urgency to address police conduct. Read the memo Republicans will get this morning

NRCC internal: R+1 on the generic ballot

Isn't this just R+1 among whatever they're defining as "swing voters?" LOL either way.

[tagimaucia]

Iowa should still be Lean R.

I thought there were at least two polls with Ernst trailing Greenfield.

Polling in Iowa systematically underestimates the GOP. Remember when Reynolds was trailing Hubbell?

I don't think this is that true of Selzer though (though I'd be happy to be corrected)? Even she had Greenfield +3 not too long ago.