Germany megathread

[Isaak]

In my view: It's considerably bigger than expected and FDP essentially capitulated. They definitely knew they had no choice, rather than make themselves more unpopular blocking it and be forced to do it in a few months anyway. Although Windfall tax was announced (if EU doesn't pass one, Germany will unilaterally), the reality is it will mainly be financed by debt. Both of those are big reversals by Lindner, as is the continuation of the 9 euro ticket etc.

It's not really a tax (which would be constitutionally dubious) but, yes, Lindner disappointed his electorate here. I am not fully sure what strategy he has in mind; it would be much easier to play hardball and blame the Greens.

2. Lindner can come along now and dish out financial aid everyone, as he controls the public purse. Hence why Finance Minister is a very convenient portfolio to have.

Well, I - and many others - did not vote for Lindner to dish out financial aid to anyone but to limit public spending and strengthen Germany's economic competitiveness. I thus remain doubtful whether it makes sense to alienate the party's voter base to curry favor with Greens and Social Democrats (who may be happy about their 49-69 euro ticket and social benefits but will never vote for the FDP anyway).

Obviously, the situation is not easy and the pressure enormous – but there is increasing discontent about the liberals' performance within the coalition.

[Isaak]

And it's maybe worth pointing out that the SPD also opposes the extension of nuclear power, you know. For the purposes of the traffic light coalition it's Greens/SPD vs. FDP and not Greens vs. SPD/FDP.

Agree. But it's still interesting that from a broader strategic perspective, Scholz and Lindner have much more in common than Scholz and Habeck. Scholz has used Lindner more than once to fight battles he didn't want to fight himself; not even speaking of the fact that his chancellorship depends first and foremost on the FDP remaining part of the government. If Lindner pulls the plug on the coalition (definitely a gamble but perhaps not as stupid as people think), Scholz is the one who has the most to lose.

Habeck, on the other hand, always has Black-Green as a future alternative. This creates a strategic imbalance (and an SPD/FDP vs. Greens cleavage) that shouldn't be underestimated.

[Isaak]

Scholz approves the sale of almost 25% in the Port of Hamburg and also is planning to approve the sale of a German microchip manufacturer to the Swedish subsidiary of a Chinese company.

This is, again, despite the advice of the Bundesverfassungsschutz and many, many others, including those in his own party.

Genuinely at a loss...

Do you perhaps mean Bundesnachrichtendienst? There is no Bundesverfassungsschutz, only the Bundesamt für Verfassungsschutz (Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution), which is usually not concerned with such matters.

Would this have happened under a CDU govt as well?

Most likely, yes.

[Isaak]

Scholz approves the sale of almost 25% in the Port of Hamburg and also is planning to approve the sale of a German microchip manufacturer to the Swedish subsidiary of a Chinese company.

This is, again, despite the advice of the Bundesverfassungsschutz and many, many others, including those in his own party.

Genuinely at a loss...

Do you perhaps mean Bundesnachrichtendienst? There is no Bundesverfassungsschutz, only the Bundesamt für Verfassungsschutz (Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution), which is usually not concerned with such matters.

Yes, Clarko did mean the Verfassungsschutz, because while the BND is responsible for intelligence gathering in foreign countries, domestic security (including counter-intelligence) falls into the purview of the Verfassungsschutz.

The recommendation of the Verfassungsschutz is mentioned in this article, for instance:

https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article241821377/Chip-Hersteller-Bundesregierung-will-offenbar-weiteren-China-Deal-genehmigen.html

Interesting, didn't know that. Even more interesting is that, according to the Welt article, both Scholz and Habeck agree that...

..."the technology of Elmos (the chip producer) is outdated. There is no risk of know-how being transferred to China."

What the Verfassungsschutz worries about is a quite abstract fear (political influence of China). And both the Chancellery and the Federal Ministry of Economic Affairs seem to consider it too abstract to justify a political intervention.

[Isaak]

Sahra Wagenknecht (Left) and Alice Schwarzer (Germany's most famous feminist activist) have published a joint Manifesto for Peace, in which they call on Scholz to immediately "stop the escalation on arms deliveries to Ukraine" and bring both Zelenskyy and Putin to the negotiation table ("Ukraine cannot win a war against the world's largest nuclear power").

While it shouldn't surprise anybody that Wagenknecht has Russophile tendencies, the list of co-signatories is pretty diverse and impressive. It includes Germany's former EU commissioner Günter Verheugen (SPD) as well as Peter Gauweiler (former deputy leader of the CSU), Peter Brandt (historian and son of former Chancellor Willy Brandt), Erich Vad (former military advisor to Angela Merkel), Christoph Butterwegge (the Left's candidate for Federal President), Romani Rose (chairman of the Central Council of German Sinti and Roma), Antje Vollmer (former vice president of the Bundestag, Greens), Margot Käßmann (former chairwoman of the Council of the Evangelical Churches in Germany), and a number of prominent academics and artists.

Given that many in the SPD are also unhappy with delivering tanks, Scholz needs to be careful not to misjudge public opinion on this matter.

[Isaak]

Huge surprise (not), but the first co-signee of the "Manifesto for Peace", political scientist Johannes Varwick, has recanted his signature, citing a lack of distancing against far-right groups. This is basically what was inevitable from the start.

On the other hand, Germany's most important public intellectual Jürgen Habermas has written a Süddeutsche op-ed titled "A Plea for Negotiation" and the Wagenknecht/Schwarzer has now more than 500,000 signatures.

It may be an uncomfortable truth but public opinion in Germany is increasingly shifting against more weapon deliveries. Today, even Anton Hofreiter (Greens) was agitated about Ukraine's latest demands for cluster munitions ("They demand everything – I reject this").

[Isaak]

The Wagenknechtian "peace" movement is annoying me.

They want to negotiate with Russia because they believe the Ukraine conflict might lead to nuclear war, meaning they consider Putin irrational enough to use nuclear weapons against Germany, but at the same time rational enough to negotiate with in any meaningful manner (Munich Agreement, anyone?).

I don't see the contradiction? One can simultaneously believe that Putin would be willing to (a) further escalate the war if necessary and (b) negotiate if he feels that he has something to gain from negotiations. This may be a naive or unrealistic take (even though nobody knows what Putin really thinks), but it's hardly contradictory.

Their moralistic veneer is seemingly all about peace and being anti-war, but ultimately it often comes across as a thin disguise for articulating (supposed) national self-interests (their own gas price, maybe?). That all doesn't add up and it's hypocritical.

I don't disagree, but this is ultimately a matter of perception. On the other hand, there are also plenty of people who use their support for Ukraine as a pretense to advance their own interests, be they political or economic. Not even to speak of the US, which has the most to gain from a permanent severing of European-Russian ties.

As it was the case for the past 30 years of her political career, Sahra Wagenknecht is taking the position that is coincidentally the default opposite to the political mainstream (including, at least in parts, the mainstream within her own political party) at any given moment. First it was the PDS's largely reformist historical assessment of the East German regime, then the refugees, then COVID vaccinations, then Ukraine. That's either a calculated political strategy or the hallmark of an inherently contrarian personality.

I dislike Wagenknecht for a lot of reasons – first and foremost because she is a crazy Marxist. And it is obvious that she is both narcissistic and knows how to play the media. But at least the latter is not a bad thing per se? From a democratic perspective, I would even consider it desirable to have some non-AfD representation for these "contrarian" (but pretty popular) positions in both politics and the media. Especially in times when many people feel that there is too little diversity of opinion between and within the mainstream parties.

This week she was in a TV talkshow again, being one of the most ubiquitous political talkshow guests for many years now

Not more ubiquitous than Richard David Precht, Karl Lauterbach, Robin Alexander, Robert Habeck, Luisa Neubauer... and in contrast to them, Wagenknecht was the de facto leader of the opposition from 2013 to 2017.

There she was confronted by the issue of mass rapes of Ukrainian civilian women by Russian soldiers. She gave a callous response that has by now become almost typical for her (a form of emotional detachment that at times was even criticized by fellow long-time party members like Gregor Gysi), essentially saying that such things are always a part of war. Technically true, but maybe more is required here than just giving the robotic Dukakis answer on the death penalty.

I haven't seen that – but what would you have expected her to say? That rape is horrible? That war is cruel? We all know that. And if she would have said that, would your reaction not have been: "So, you condemn rape but still want to negotiate with Putin?! You hypocrite!"?

More generally, I really don't think that "confrontations" of this sort are helpful in any sense. One can find Russia's war crimes abhorrent and at the same time think that an unjust peace is better than a just war, let alone a nuclear escalation.

[Isaak]

Another ARD poll today found that 59% of Germans think the US can be trusted. I wish the number was higher, but it's still way more than the 33% who say "can't be trusted".

I would even say that this is a pretty solid number given the US's (a) disastrous foreign policy history, (b) unpopular interventionism, (c) decision to elect (and almost re-elect) Trump, and (d) erratic political culture, which appears shallow and unserious to most Germans.