Hmm, I don't think that if Israel needed to attack Iran, they'd care about overflying Jordan and Iraq to get there. They have the all-weather long range strike aircraft in the F-15E. I'm pretty sure they have ground penetrating guided bombs. All they need is the order to hit it.
Might they need US help to get there and back? I don't know the F-15E's range off hand, but I'd imagine its a very long haul, perhaps too long even for that fine bird without refueling along the way.
Loaded with drop tanks, globalsecurity quotes it as 2765 miles. If the target is Arak, it's about 1500 miles plus extra combat time, Bushehr is about 1800 miles if you cut through Jordan than Iraq. Isfahan and Natanz are about 2000 miles. A stretch for sure, but this is the ultimate Israel feels threatened scenario.
And what happens when US AWACS planes spot those F-15E's crossing Iraq? Unless the US has already green lighted the Israelis doing this, it's a lose-lose situation for the US. (Even if the US has green-lighted it, the brown clumpy stuff is gonna hit the fan, but at least we'd in theory be prepared for it.)
If we don't stop the Israelis, about the least painful result will be Iran placing an embargo on oil exports and other Mid-East governments doing the same in sympathy (either real or in an attempt to appease their own jihadists) $500 per barrel of oil anyone?
If we do stop the Israelis, the resulting political firestorm is likely to distract us from the real problem. While Israeli governments are routinely led by a bunch of arrogant pricks who expect the US to meekly put up with whatever abuse they hand us (remember the USS Liberty?), they aren't so stupid as to pull a stunt like this unless they felt the threat was real.
However, I don't see the Israelis trying the direct route. They do have approxiimately 8 air tankers. (a mix of KC-130's and KC-707's) That's enough to allow the IAF to circle the Arabian peninsula on a single strike mission such as this.
At least someone is good enough here to bring up the disgusting actions of Israel against the USS Liberty. Israel should do more then apologize and admit it WASNT an accident!
