Labour Party (UK) Leadership Election, 2016

[Phony Moderate]

Labour (and the Tories for that matter) should probably have left electing their party leaders with their MP's in the House of Commons.

The downside to that is...er, ask any Aussie.

[Phony Moderate]

They should see if tony blair wants to make a comeback lol

Far, far more people would support expelling Blair from the party than his return as leader. And I'm referring to the people in the PLP as opposed to the wider membership.

[Phony Moderate]

I mean, a huge element of Labour struggles with the working classes, possibly even a cause of their major defection to UKIP and to voting to leave the EU, was Blair's liberalism - both economic and social liberalism.

Yeah, I mean it's a pretty telling fact that Labour won about a million less votes in the landslide of 2001 than they did in 1992 even with a larger percentage share.

Just like the Republican base in the US, Labour voters seem to want someone who reflects their values more than someone who would have a better chance at winning an election.

But with Trump I think it's less a case of him sharing their values and more a case of him sharing their way of expressing themselves. If John Mann were on the hard left and were leader then he'd be a better analogy to Trump...though I doubt most Labour members share his way of expressing themselves.

[Phony Moderate]

Lazy slippage between 'voters' and 'members' is to be avoided at all costs.

So most of the 9 million 2015 Labour voters *aren't* sandal-wearers?

[Phony Moderate]

Yet another surreal 2016 moment:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37104864

Surely the Blairite Smith supporters won't take this too well?

[Phony Moderate]

Ugh. I thought Corbyn was at least above this kind of dishonesty. At this point I'll be heartbroken if he still somehow wins.

What do you mean by "somehow"?
Clarification to the foreign posters: he will win.

The likelihood doesn't make it any less baffling.

When your opponent is Owen "Let's talk with ISIS" Smith, I don't see how that's surprising.

I note that the likes of Hilary "Let's bomb the s***t out of ISIS" Benn have had eff all to say about that idiotic statement. Just about understandable (doesn't want to damage the attempt to oust Corbyn) but you can see why much of the non-Corbynite part of the PLP (that being most of it) is viewed as unprincipled and careerist.

[Phony Moderate]

Cast my vote yesterday. Voted for the more moderate and reasonable candidate.

[Phony Moderate]

Would I be wrong to say that momentum has shifted to Smith?

Yes, you would be wrong.

And 'momentum' tends to count for less in party internal elections anyway.

[Phony Moderate]

I really do think that swinging behind Smith was a big mistake for the PLP.

Say what you will about Corbyn but he would have never pretended to be a moderate in (for instance) 2007 to give himself a chance of winning the leadership.

[Phony Moderate]

What's wrong with questioning how Corbyn voted? The EU seems to be the one issue that divides Corbyn and his base.

Well obviously only he knows that for sure. His supposed lack of passion in campaigning for Remain is surely a more important issue.

[Phony Moderate]

Smith represents politics, for the better and for the worse.

It's not as deep as that; Smith represents those who want to see Jeremy Corbyn out as Labour leader. If he represents politics then he's not very good at it.

[Phony Moderate]

In the meantime Keith Vaz has provided some comic relief. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37269919

[Phony Moderate]

This election is a national disgrace.

The nation doesn't care enough about this election for it to be that.

[Phony Moderate]

Surreal to think that only 15 months ago Liz Kendall was seen as a 50-50 shot to win the leadership.

[Phony Moderate]

Her betting odds were absurdly short for a brief few days IIRC, and she impressively kicked the other possible Blairite candidates aside. Then she started talking like, well, a Blairite.

[Phony Moderate]

And the purpose of the Labour Party is to form Labour governments.

Careful, you'll #trigger Corbyn.

IIRC the most recent YouGov poll showed that Corbyn's supporters are more confident that Corbyn could lead Labour to victory than Smith's supporters are that Smith could.

[Phony Moderate]

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/sep/11/owen-smith-labour-should-seek-british-return-to-eu-if-brexit-means-tory-austerity

This is the last straw for me. I just can't.

The case that Corbyn is more electable than Smith gets stronger by the day.

[Phony Moderate]

Not enough people care that strongly about EU membership to switch on mass to the Lib Dems and give them enough support to even come close to holding the balance of power.

Case in point: The most recent Scottish independence polls.

[Phony Moderate]

The europhile stances of Sturgeon, Farron and Smith are, in a sense, a gamble that Brexit will happen and be a disaster (which, tbh, looks like quite a safe bet), so that they can ride in 2020 or whenever and run on a platform of "I told you so. Look what I was saying at the time."

Such a scenario might give such politicians a boost, but at the same time it would probably also give UKIP (or whatever the main party to the right of the Tories is then) a boost.

[Phony Moderate]

If it's going to happen, it'll have to involve the Lib Dems "re-splitting" into their Liberal and SDP factions, and the SDP half becoming a safe-space for non-Corbynite Labour...

The Lib Dem factions are not "Liberal" and "SDP".

What exactly are their factions these days?

The Orange Bookers (Tory-friendly) and the social liberals (more left-leaning) basically. Farron is in the latter...despite certain issues that he has.

[Phony Moderate]

Isn't this election over already? God damn how long does this party need to crown Corbyn leader for the second time?

No wonder Labour can't keep up with the Tories when you take into account how the two parties handle their leadership elections.

It is pretty much over as most of the ballots will have been cast already. The result just hasn't been announced quite yet.

Still, we're still better than Canada!

[Phony Moderate]

For the talk of electability, labour probably lost more votes because of the leadership election, with the Owen Smith coup (or campaign) against Corbyn, then when Corbyn was actually leader before the EU referendum, to which Corbyn, leading the party was par with the 2015 eleciton results, sometimes beating the 2015 election results in polls.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/poll-working-class-voters-think-jeremy-corbyn-is-out-of-touch-and-an-election-loser-a7326486.html

A few months of Owen "Let's sit down with ISIS" Smith as leader would make those figures look excellent.

[Phony Moderate]

For the talk of electability, labour probably lost more votes because of the leadership election, with the Owen Smith coup (or campaign) against Corbyn, then when Corbyn was actually leader before the EU referendum, to which Corbyn, leading the party was par with the 2015 eleciton results, sometimes beating the 2015 election results in polls.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/poll-working-class-voters-think-jeremy-corbyn-is-out-of-touch-and-an-election-loser-a7326486.html

A few months of Owen "Let's sit down with ISIS" Smith as leader would make those figures look excellent.

I don't support Owen 'Let's ignore the referendum" Smith either, btw.

Jon Cruddas where art thou

He's a fascinating figure...but clearly not an ambitious one, aisde from that run at deputy in 2007. My gut feeling is that Corbyn will stand aside in a couple of years in favour of one of his own - perhaps Clive Lewis or Richard Burgon.

[Phony Moderate]

Result to be announced at 11:45AM today (6:45AM US EST).

[Phony Moderate]

Turnout is said to be 77.6%, slightly up from last time.