Is this a Conservative minority government, a Conservative-Liberal Democratic coalition, or a Conservative majority?
A full Conservative majority. Blair and Brown makes mistakes in the '97 general election.
Mere 'mistakes' during campaigns do not swing elections as this is the UK and not Canada.
You could have a less savvy Labor leader. That would help.
I suspect the Tories lost 1997 through their own errors in office; Blair turned what would have been a 50-100 overall majority under a John Smith or a Gordon Brown (or even maybe, dare I say it, a John Prescott...hey, Tony Abbott won pretty handsomely!) into a majority of 179 - putting the likes of Enfield Southgate, Wimbledon and St Albans into the Labour column in the process.