UK Parliamentary by-elections, 2015 onwards (also devolved legislatures)

[Phony Moderate]

Apparently the Tories are now 1/8 to win Copeland.

[Phony Moderate]

And if Labour hold on in Copeland a lot of people will have lost money due to believing such rumours. Pretty sure that wouldn't be a first.

[Phony Moderate]

Copeland

CON 44.3 (+8.5)
LAB 37.3 (-4.9)
LD 7.3 (+3.8  )
UKIP 6.5 (-9.0)
GRN 1.7 (-1.3)

CON wins on UKIP tactical voting plus LAB bleeding support to LD.

Labour bled more support to 'abstain' than to the Lib Dems, I think.

Best result for a governing party in a post-war by-election, surely.

[Phony Moderate]

Factoring in national polling this wasn't a terrible night for labour

Er, we held on in Darlington in 1983 when the polls were absolutely atrocious, the Tories held on to several marginal seats during the 1997 parliament when our poll leads were above 20% much of the time.

This isn't good, there's no way of getting around it.

[Phony Moderate]

Nice to see the left-wing commie biased BBC ignoring Copeland and focusing almost entirely on Nuttall going down in Stoke...oh wait, they are focusing on Copeland.

[Phony Moderate]

What's the reason for Labour's abysmal performance in these by-elections and their national polling? Is it simply the leadership of Jeremy Corbyn? Or are there more significant factors?

People really hate Jeremy Corbyn. He might be the most unpopular political figure in Britain right now.

Nah, he's not hated, he's just not seen as being any good for the most part.

[Phony Moderate]

Yeah, his ratings are pretty terrible, but I don't get the impression that people actively hate him. Although Labour might actually be better off with a leader that millions of people hate.

Ftr, I wouldn't mind replacing Corbyn, if a credible challenge (aka not like Owen Smith), emerges, and hopefully based on a challenger that has working class roots, and can recognise and adress their concerns, as a labour party,

Ah yeah, Owen Smith. That guy who managed to take a more dovish position on terrorism than Jeremy Corbyn.

[Phony Moderate]

The Tories got less votes in Copeland on Thursday than they did in 2015. As I said before, abstention was probably the biggest issue for Labour - there's a sense of gloom starting at the PLP and going right down to the Labour-sympathetic part of the electorate.

Anyway, the BBC's weird obsession with the prettier Miliband brother continues: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39085859

This would be news if he had ever expressed the slightest sympathy for Corbynism...which he hasn't. Diane Abbott, John McDonnell, Len McCluskey or even the uglier Miliband brother making similar comments would count as news but this doesn't. Frankly if the prettier Miliband brother didn't have the political nous to win a leadership election then I highly doubt he'd have come close to beating David Cameron. Blair, of course, did have the nous to do so and won it big in 1994.

[Phony Moderate]

Well they only a got a few hundred less which is an extremely good performance for a by-
election. You can't seriously be suggesting that every voter that voted Tory in 2015 turned out and they didn't gain any voters from elsewhere... It is pretty clear that the Tories gained heavily at the expense of UKIP which is why they won (look at national polling if you don't believe me). As for Labour sure some of their voters sat home but probably not a particularly different proportion to the amount of 2015 Tory voters who didn't vote.

I wasn't suggesting that, but to go down by over 5,000 is highly unusual (and poor) for an opposition party in a by-election. Though admittedly if you add 3,000 to the Labour total (i.e. enough for victory) it would have entailed an unusual high turnout for a by-election.

Labour will probably perform best in at the next election in places where there is very little 2015 UKIP vote to speak of (the Tories main pool of new voters). For example Labour would probably stand a chance at holding Hampstead and Kilburn (Tory target seat 11) even in a nationwide meltdown for example. Anywhere with large Green votes should deliver reasonable performances too, though unfortunately for them the Green vote is very low in most Con-Lab marginals.

The worst thing from Labour's POV is that (as things stand) the marginals of the Midlands and certain parts of the North will swing even further to the Tories - and of course they already swung pretty heavily to them in both 2010 and 2015. Nuneaton (now seen as the quintessential Lab-Con marginal) could deliver a five-figure Tory majority for example.

[Phony Moderate]

George Galloway is standing in Manchester Gorton, apparently.

[Phony Moderate]

George Galloway is running in the by-election; really doesn't help his reputation as a shameless self promoter, and general idiot.

You imply that he cares about that.

[Phony Moderate]

Isn't "Jess Mayo" a common reply to the chap behind the counter in Subway?

[Phony Moderate]

I've been reading that the Lib-Dems are getting rather excited about the campaign; and whilst not expecting to win are expecting to cut Labour's majority down to 5,000-6,000.

Given the likely level of turnout and Galloway's candidacy, a majority in that ballpark wouldn't be a disaster.

A by-election in Liverpool Walton is likely to be held soon, is it not? The Lib Dems would be more than happy to repeat their performance in the last one:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liverpool_Walton_by-election,_1991

Leigh is another likely one. This is assuming that huge upsets aren't produced in the mayoral elections.

[Phony Moderate]

No one seems to have a clue if the Manchester Gorton by-election will go ahead or not.