United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership

[Phony Moderate]

ORB poll: Remain 45, Leave 55

[Phony Moderate]

Both options have dire consequences. It's just a matter of what fits your tastes.

It is somewhat amusing though that the older generation are the ones rallying against the establishment, for radical change etc.

[Phony Moderate]

This is exactly what happened with Scottish independence. It's tightening up but people will wimp out at the last minute and vote to remain.

The caveat to that would be that there may well be a difference in the attitude of the electorate between becoming an independent country and leaving a political union that many don't know much about.

Congrats, morons.

Regardless of whether this contains a grain or truth or not and regardless of what the result turns out to be, this is something that many on the left (both the 'radical' and 'mainstream' parts of it) need to cut out. And I say that as someone who had similar thoughts in May 2015.

[Phony Moderate]

More and more people seem to be tying the immigration and economy issues together though.

[Phony Moderate]

YouGov have similar figures, but with Leave in the lead at 43 and Remain at 42.

[Phony Moderate]

Surely it's possible that a lot of the don't knows won't bother voting.

[Phony Moderate]

ComRes has Remain ahead at 46-45, down from 52-41 in its previous poll, though it has tended to be one of the more favourable pollsters to Remain.

[Phony Moderate]

Ipsos-MORI: Remain 47, Leave 53. Previous poll had Remain 57-43 ahead. Don't know what the figures are including undecideds though.

[Phony Moderate]

I would say it's also a bit sick to discuss the implications of this at this time.

[Phony Moderate]

I would say it's also a bit sick to discuss the implications of this at this time.

Why? One can simultaneously be disgusted by this terrible attack and think of its potential political consequences. I think this will hurt the "out" side.

Outside this forum I wouldn't have to even answer that question...

[Phony Moderate]

I would say it's also a bit sick to discuss the implications of this at this time.

Why? One can simultaneously be disgusted by this terrible attack and think of its potential political consequences. I think this will hurt the "out" side.

Outside this forum I wouldn't have to even answer that question...

It's just a bit hypocritical for people to pretend as if they don't think of the political consequences of this attack, because everybody does. But if that's what you prefer, then fine, I guess

Well yes indeed, but lines have to be drawn occasionally. I mean it's long been a rule on here that we don't start a by-election discussion within a few hours of an MP's death.

[Phony Moderate]

ok thanks

[Phony Moderate]

Populus has Remain at a 55-45 lead, but the last public poll from them was in March and apparently they have been a private pollster for the Remain campaign.

[Phony Moderate]

YouGov 'on the day' (not an exit) poll has Remain ahead by 52-48.

[Phony Moderate]

Rumours that John McDonnell is involved in moves against Corbyn.

[Phony Moderate]

Some Labour people are suggesting that Labour's main pledge at the next GE should be to take us back in. Evidently they haven't seen the Nuneaton and Bedworth result.

[Phony Moderate]

Opinium poll - 7% of Leave voters and 3% of Remain voters regret their votes.

So we are potentially now at a point where remain would win.

Sigh...

We're potentially at a point (according to those figures) where polling would show it as 50-50. And most of the polls (which on average showed a 4-5% Remain lead at the end of the campaign) were wrong. Though interestingly those figures would, if entirely accurate, produce a 51-49 Leave victory - which is exactly what that particular pollster showed in its final campaign poll.

[Phony Moderate]

Has anyone done estimates for the Liverpool constituencies? Wouldn't be surprised if Walton, West Derby and Garston and Halewood (which includes a bit of Leave-voting Knowsley borough - hence the Halewood part) all voted Leave; surely Riverside was the most Remain.

[Phony Moderate]

Has anyone done estimates for the Liverpool constituencies? Wouldn't be surprised if Walton, West Derby and Garston and Halewood (which includes a bit of Leave-voting Knowsley borough - hence the Halewood part) all voted Leave; surely Riverside was the most Remain.

Chris Hanretty has estimates for the whole country:
https://medium.com/@chrishanretty/revised-estimates-of-leave-vote-share-in-westminster-constituencies-c4612f06319d#.ab4newhm1

(These are revised figures from the ones discussed previously, which were definitely off for Liverpool.  I haven't checked these ones.)

Cheers.