Labour Party leadership election 2015

[Phony Moderate]

Jeremy Corbyn is now in, according to the New Statesmen.

[Phony Moderate]

Good Lord: http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/may/29/liz-kendall-will-back-white-working-class-young

[Phony Moderate]

Perhaps Field and Hoey will nominate Corbyn as they nominated McDonnell last time (lol).

[Phony Moderate]

Anyone who thinks that Labour needs to reach out more to 'whites' is most certainly not a 'moderniser'.

[Phony Moderate]

I called it!

[Phony Moderate]

It probably has something to do with the fact that none of them are liked by the powerful people in the party.

[Phony Moderate]

Labour would be foolish not to pick Yvette Cooper, Andy Burhnam is boring and uninspiring and Kendall is Tony Blair in a dress.

I get the impression that Yvette would either be a stunning success or an IDS-style train wreck.

[Phony Moderate]

Probably good news for Corbyn and Creagh that the other three are already over the line.

[Phony Moderate]

It's slightly dickish to nominate someone who is already at 35 or more imo.

[Phony Moderate]

Kendall is Tony Blair in a dress.

Tony Blair won three general elections, so that's not exactly a bad thing.

And is one of the reasons for Labour losing the last two.

[Phony Moderate]

Many will recall that Blair took over the party by arguing that it needed to get with the times. Now his creatures want to take the party back a least a decade.

[Phony Moderate]

It was also down to the leadership's failure to point out the Tories' blatant hypocrisy - they had been backing Labour's spending plans for years prior to the crash and he even criticised them for being too tough on the banks.

[Phony Moderate]

I've always thought it was strange that Labour won a majority in 2005 and then Blair somehow caused them to lose elections years after he'd left office.

His tenure alienated many traditional Labour voters in marginal (and largely working-class) seats, many of whom voted UKIP last month or abstained, and also abstained in 10/05/01.

[Phony Moderate]

Of course it didn't matter so much in '05 due to the uselessness of the Tories, but once the Tories became semi-competent in opposition and the recession etc hit it gave their own alienated voters reason to vote in 2010; Labour 'only' lost 800,000 votes between 05 and 10 btw (less than they lost between 01 and 05), whereas the Tories gained about 2 million.

[Phony Moderate]

It's not an entirely meaningful statistic, but it pleases me that Blair in 2001 and 2005 and Cameron in 2010 and 2015 won a lower total popular vote than Callaghan in 1979.

[Phony Moderate]

It's not an entirely meaningful statistic, but it pleases me that Blair in 2001 and 2005 and Cameron in 2010 and 2015 won a lower total popular vote than Callaghan in 1979.

That's because turnout has dropped so much in recent years.

Hence the first bit. Also can be explained by a larger non-Lab/Con vote.

[Phony Moderate]

Nominations close at the top of the hour. Corbyn currently on 30 having been nominated by a number of big names.

[Phony Moderate]

Nominations closed. Several MPs apparently rushed in to nominate Corbyn in the last few minutes. Uncertain as to whether he has made it.

[Phony Moderate]

The Morning Star's Luke James (who seemed to be closest to the action) says on Twitter that he's made it.

[Phony Moderate]

And John McDonnell confirms.

[Phony Moderate]

Since midday Corbyn supporters have been urging their hard left friends/followers on social media to pay the three quid, btw. Surely there would be a safeguard against such tactics, no?

[Phony Moderate]

Watson would of course be a return to normality as far as the deputy leadership goes - an overweight macho bruising type - think Prescott, Hattersley, Healey, George Brown etc.

[Phony Moderate]

Whatever else, I doubt that Corbyn is going to state that he wishes to move the Labour Party away from the right and back towards the centre (as a certain candidate did last time).

[Phony Moderate]

Also, I severely doubt many of his views would play well with the electorate at large... and this picture would probably feature a lot.

Doubtful; even the Royals are willing to be in the same room as him nowadays.

[Phony Moderate]

The divisions were the main millstone in 1983 and Foot was unpopular because of them.

But, again, the most common prediction of the aftermath of (for example) 2005 was that Gordon Brown would defeat David Davis in the next general election. And what odds would you have got in July 2010 on Scottish Labour being reduced to one seat (and it being Edinburgh South at that)?