UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread)

[Phony Moderate]

the far left SNP 

LOL

To be fair, that phrase was within a quotation. But yeah, any party that receives donations from the owner of Stagecoach is most certainly not 'far-left'.

[Phony Moderate]

More from YouGov's Scotland poll: Sturgeon surges to a 71/23 'doing well/badly' rating; 56% say she won this week's Scottish debate.

[Phony Moderate]

Statements of Persons Nominated began being released yesterday. Rotherham is going to be even uglier than expected - aside from UKIP, there is the leader of the BNP and an English Democrat standing there.

[Phony Moderate]

Populus: Labour 33, Con 31, UKIP 16, LDem 8, Greens 6

Is it me or have they been churning out the exact same figures for the past couple of weeks?

[Phony Moderate]

YouGov: Lab 35, Con 33, UKIP 13, Lib Dems 8, Greens 5

[Phony Moderate]

YouGov: Lab 36, Con 33, UKIP 13, Lib Dems 7, Greens 5

[Phony Moderate]

TNS/BMRB poll of Scotland: SNP 52, Lab 24, Con 13, Lib Dems 6, Greens 3

[Phony Moderate]

I was just going over which possible or probable MP oustings would please me most and the first names that sprang to mind are all Lib Dems: Nick Clegg, Danny Alexander, David Ward...and of course Mike Hancock, but he is no longer a Lib Dem.

[Phony Moderate]

Any predictions for turnout? Around two-thirds with YouGov say the chances of them voting is 10/10 (and that number will probably rise as we get closer to electon day, although actual turnout tends to be a bit lower than that number), and in Scotland it is over 80%. I'll predict that it just scrapes the 1997 figure of 71%ish.

[Phony Moderate]

That's the narrative for this week then.

Aside from the obvious difference from other recent polls, the Greens are slightly higher than their current average and UKIP are (much) lower...not the only ICM to have seemingly strange numbers in recent months either; their December poll had the Tories in the 20s IIRC.

ICM is either going to be massively vindicated or its credibility to going to take a huge blow on May 7th...it would be nice if we had polls from them more than once every couple of centuries or so, though.

[Phony Moderate]

For the record, there was an infamous rogue poll during the 1997 campaign from ICM; it showed a 5-point Labour lead - by far the lowest of the Blair leadership up to that point.

[Phony Moderate]

That's the narrative for this week then.

ICM is either going to be massively vindicated or its credibility to going to take a huge blow on May 7th...it would be nice if we had polls from them more than once every couple of centuries or so, though.

No one will care what their poll said three weeks before the election - they will be judged based on what their final poll says the day before the election.

Will there even be one? This is their first poll of the (two week old) campaign and they have only been conducting them on a monthly basis. They were far more regular in 2010.

[Phony Moderate]

The death has been announced this evening of Ronnie Carroll (Britain's entry in Eurovision for 1963 and 1964) which means that the election in the Hampstead and Kilburn constituency will be postponed http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-32291350

Oh for 's sake. Why can't they just allow the electorate the option of voting for a dead person ala Missouri 2000. ing British electoral laws.

[Phony Moderate]

The death has been announced this evening of Ronnie Carroll (Britain's entry in Eurovision for 1963 and 1964) which means that the election in the Hampstead and Kilburn constituency will be postponed http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-32291350

No, it won't. He was an independent, and, so, the election is continuing as planned.

[Phony Moderate]

I hold the view that Diane James would be a more successful leader; she comes across as a Sturgeon to Farage's Salmond.

[Phony Moderate]

I'm going to predict that by this time next week the Lib Dems will have taken a point or two off both Labour and the Tories to 'surge' to 12-13%. The 'moderate hero' message that Clegg is pitching today (and will presumably continue to pitch) goes down very well in some quarters. Plus, the Lib Dems almost always enjoy at least a modest increase in the two to three weeks before polling day.

[Phony Moderate]

Didn't watch it, but saw some clips. All I can ask is what on earth was Farage doing?!!!!? He completely turned into a Mail Online commenter. I thought the man, for all his faults, had some degree of restraint. Unbelievable.

[Phony Moderate]

Survation poll on 'who won?': Miliband 35, Sturgeon 31, Farage 27, Bennett 5, Wood 2

[Phony Moderate]

Who should be Prime Minister - Miliband or Cameron?

Miliband - 45%
Cameron - 40%

That's terrible news for David Cameron (see what I did there?). But the audience was almost certainly to the left of the population as a whole, so meh.

[Phony Moderate]

Who should be Prime Minister - Miliband or Cameron?

Miliband - 45%
Cameron - 40%

That's terrible news for David Cameron (see what I did there?). But the audience was almost certainly to the left of the population as a whole, so meh.

Is that because the average Briton is to the left though?

Well, let me put it another way: few Conservative voters watched the debate, presumably. Still, this poll is 'historic' - the first time Miliband has ever been ahead of Cameron on this question.

[Phony Moderate]

There wasn't really any way that Sturgeon could lose from these debates, short of a Gerald Ford 1976 style gaffe. The others could only attack her on her desire for independence...which about half of Scots support. The whole "Vote SNP, get the Tories" argument was/is weak and pretty embarassing tbh.

[Phony Moderate]

Most people didn't watch the first 2010 debate either; not saying that there will be a big Labour surge, but the most important thing about these debates (in terms of their effect) is how they are portrayed by the media in the aftermath.

[Phony Moderate]

Surely, surely, surely he can't continue if he loses his own seat, right?

[Phony Moderate]

To put the Glasgow SW swing into some context, the largest GE swing between Labour and the Tories since 1945 was around 19% - Brent North, 1997.

[Phony Moderate]

YouGov poll of 18-24 year-olds which is fairly old in terms of when the fieldwork was done but hey: Lab 34, Con 23, Greens 20, UKIP 10, Lib Dems 8, SNP/PC 5, Others 1