UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread)

[Phony Moderate]

The Guardian has endorsed Labour outright, rather than calling for a 'progressive coalition'. The Guardian (contrary to what some believe) isn't really a naturally Labour paper though; if it were an MP it would be Charles Kennedy or Julian Huppert.

[Phony Moderate]

Survation: Lab 34, Con 33, UKIP 16, Lib Dems 9, SNP 4, Greens 3

[Phony Moderate]

Turnout will almost certainly be higher in Scotland than in rUK.

[Phony Moderate]

YouGov: Lab 34, Con 33, UKIP 14, Lib Dems 8, Greens 5

[Phony Moderate]

As I said previously, it will be something that the pollsters can point at if they are wrong, just as they did with England's World Cup exit in 1970 and the Sheffield Rally in 1992.

[Phony Moderate]

Worth a read: http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9392

[Phony Moderate]

Coventry City won the FA Cup during the 1987 campaign. It was possibly the proudest day in the city's modern history. To add to that, Neil Kinnock had stated that he was rooting for Tottenham Hotspur. There was no swing to the Tories in any of the Coventry seats; in fact the swing to Labour in all of them was greater than the national swing.

[Phony Moderate]

Very grim news for Labour if anything close to accurate, but salt required etc: http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2015/05/02/revealed-eds-night-time-dash-to-casa-brand-driven-by-postal-ballot-panic/

[Phony Moderate]

A swipe at the Lib Dems?

[Phony Moderate]

YouGov: Con 34, Lab 33, UKIP 12, Lib Dems 9, Greens 5

[Phony Moderate]

There is a solid chunk of the Labour Party that will forever oppose entering into a coalition with any other party.

Oh yeah, and I was within a few feet of Cameron earlier today. Didn't actually see him though as his bus was covered in blue and "better future blah blah".

[Phony Moderate]

Does anyone else think that Cameron would prefer another Con-Lib Dem coalition to a majority? The coalition has to a large extent kept the right-wing backbenchers at bay; if the Tories had a majority (especially a smallish one) then it would be a different story. Ask John Major.

[Phony Moderate]

YouGov: Lab 33, Con 33, UKIP 12, Lib Dems 10, Greens 5

[Phony Moderate]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-30/u-k-election-exit-pollster-says-his-poll-may-be-vague-or-wrong

[Phony Moderate]

I had an election night dream last night - well an exit poll one to be precise (hence the link I posted above). It had Con 300ish, Lab 240ish, Lib Dems 25ish, SNP 55ish, UKIP 5ish and Greens 63 (yes). Bennett was the first person to be asked for a reaction to the exit poll...she was like "oh, um, errr, ah, hehehe" - understandably not very believing of it...not surprising, as it polled many seats that do not exist.

[Phony Moderate]

Internals for latest YouGov Scottish poll: http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/tbq1budwf1/SundayTimes_Scotland_150501_VI_Trackers_Website.pdf

Sturgeon's personal rating reaches a new high of 75%.

[Phony Moderate]

Ashcroft: Con 32, Lab 30, UKIP 12, Lib Dems 11, Greens 7, SNP 5, Others 3

[Phony Moderate]

Is Boris Johnson really to the right of Cameron politically, or viewed as such? He seems an odd vehicle to me for a right wing cleansing of Tory wets from influence in the wake of a defeat.

He appeals (or at least makes an effort to) to both the Left and the Right of the Conservative Party.

[Phony Moderate]

Tories 89%
LD 76%
UKIP 72%
DUP 70%
Labour 68%
SNP 63%
PC 61%
BNP 58%
SF 55%
GRN 52%

Apparently I fit best in Bolsolver, Penrith, and Walsall.

Bolsover is Dennis Skinner's (our answer to...Bernie Sanders or Dennis Kucinich...maybe...but to the left of them both) seat...hmmm.

[Phony Moderate]

YouGov: Lab 34, Con 34, UKIP 12, Lib Dems 9, Greens 5

[Phony Moderate]

Lib Dems seem to be cracking double digits more often in the past week or so.

#Cleggmania2.0

#TacticalClegging?

Example: Constituency of Bath: "Labour can't win here. Vote Liberal Democrat."
Example: Constituency of Bristol West: "Tories can't win here. Vote Liberal Democrat."

Of course an obnoxious bar chart accompanies both of those.

[Phony Moderate]

Happy Eve of Poll/Polling Deluge Day, everyone!

[Phony Moderate]

Found this gem of a thread from five years ago: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=116376.0

[Phony Moderate]

TNS/BMRB: Con 33 (-1), Lab 32 (-1), UKIP 14 (-1), Lib Dems 8 (+1), Greens 6 (+1)

Probably not the only poll we'll see today.

[Phony Moderate]

YouGov London: Lab 46, Con 33, Lib Dems 9, UKIP 8, Greens 3