UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread)

[Phony Moderate]

Orkney and Shetland would probably be about the only seat in question on those figures.

[Phony Moderate]

Populus: Lab 36, Con 33, UKIP 14, Lib Dems 8, Greens 5

[Phony Moderate]

ICM: Con 35, Lab 32, UKIP 13, Lib Dems 9, Greens 5

[Phony Moderate]

I'm sure someone will post the full figures, but Ashcroft shows Labour doing well in several UKIP-strong marginals...while being behind by 6% nationally. Either the constituency polls are wrong or the national poll is.

[Phony Moderate]

I am so glad to see Cameron losing. He has been an example that liberals and moderates in the US say that the GOP should become. Wishy Washy and stand for nothing that elites dont want. UKIP all the way.

I actually agree with most of that...

[Phony Moderate]

The Green percentage is the most questionable thing about the Ashcroft poll.

[Phony Moderate]

A hopeless vote for Labour in a Lib Dem-Con battle.

[Phony Moderate]

It does look as though turnout is going to be back to pre-2000s levels (i.e. 70% or more)...YouGov has 73% saying they are certain to vote with still ten days to go (and there tends to be a sizable bounce in that number in the final week of a campaign).

I still have a fear that we could be looking at 1992 2.0. A high turnout with the seemingly unpopular Tories far exceeding expectations due to voters' fear of Labour outweighing their hatred of the Tories.

[Phony Moderate]

I am almost thinking of setting myself a challenge: not to look at any UK political news or polls until next Thursday (just about possible).

[Phony Moderate]

The 1992/1997 share for the Lib Dems that some people were predicting doesn't look overly likely now, does it?

[Phony Moderate]

[Phony Moderate]

YouGov: Lab 35, Con 34, UKIP 12, Lib Dems 9, Greens 4

[Phony Moderate]

I've been polled by YouGov a couple of times during the campaign.

[Phony Moderate]

I've been polled by YouGov a couple of times during the campaign.

...and again.

[Phony Moderate]

YouGov: Con 35, Lab 34, UKIP 12, Lib Dems 9, Greens 4

[Phony Moderate]

Mori: Con 35, Lab 30, UKIP 10, Lib Dems 8, Greens 8

Not good for Labour, but also not the first poll in which we have seen a weirdly high Green share.

Oh yeah, and "Others" are on 9...

[Phony Moderate]

What a ghastly, useless and incompetent tool.

[Phony Moderate]

http://washpost.bloomberg.com/Story?docId=1376-NNGJOM6S972O01-0JUKG9906S9KG5CPCR5EV4V91S

U.K.’s Wealthy Non-Domiciles Are Packing Their Bags, Forte Says

So according to him this Labour manifesto is to the left of 1983's and Cameron hasn't been pinning (or attempting to pin) the blame for the bust on Labour for these past few years. Lol.

[Phony Moderate]

Panelbase: Lab 34, Con 32, UKIP 17, Lib Dems 8, Greens 4

[Phony Moderate]

Cameron wins 44-38 according to ICM. Clegg on 19.

[Phony Moderate]

YouGov: Lab 35, Con 34, UKIP 12, Lib Dems 8, Greens 5

[Phony Moderate]

The Greens picked up a lot of right-leaning voters (including one of my great aunts) during their original surge in the late 1980s. But they were essentially a single issue party then.

[Phony Moderate]

What about a Declaration of Independence if (as several recent polls suggest) the SNP top 50%?

[Phony Moderate]

There is the assumption that they were ever with him or his party in the first place, though. Certainly if every or even a sizable majority of UKIP voters voted Tory in 2010 then they (the Tories) would be polling firmly in the 20s now.

[Phony Moderate]

Seems like a good time to note this: The Green candidate in Oxford West and Abingdon is Larry Sanders; his brother has been in the news recently.