UK 2015 - A New Dawn

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March 31st 2015:



by Peter Kellner



With just over a month to go until the general election, no one can predict with any degree of certainty what the final outcome will be. Labour still enjoy a lead of around five points in YouGov's daily polling, but there is an issue which complicates matters - UKIP. They aren't enjoying the 25% ratings that they achieved in the aftermath of their victory in the European elections last year, but they are still averaging 10-12%. Last month, we heard the news that Nigel Farage would be participating in the only televised debate. What the effect of this will end up being is not clear. The Liberal Democrats got a 10% boost in the aftermath of the first debate in 2010, but it gradually faded by election day. This time, with there being only one two-hour long debate to be held a week before election day, maybe any 'Faragemania' would be more difficult for the other parties to quash.

The Conservatives' ratings have improved from their all-time low of 17% last year, but it's very difficult to see how Mr. Cameron can achieve his longtime ambition of an overall majority. The economy is beginning to show signs of improvement and that fact will surely be appearing in many Tory election broadcasts. But they still trail.

Labour can be pleased that their lead hasn't been wiped out despite Ed Miliband's still low popularity. Still, many party activists fear that an all-out Tory attack against their leader could still cost them the election.

For the Liberal Democrats, this election is about defense. That is to say, defense of the seats they currently hold. Liberal Democrat marginal seats are historically quite difficult to budge, with many of their MPs having a high personal vote. But after five years in government, these factors may have been dampened.

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April 5th 2015:

UK Polling Report

As the election nears, most voters expect and want a Labour government, according to YouGov's poll for the Sunday Times. 34% say the want to see a Labour majority, 15% want a coalition between Labour and the Liberal Democrats, 28% want a Conservative majority and only 12% want to see a continuation of the Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition. In terms of expectations, 35% think Labour will win an overall majority, 18% believe they will form a coalition with the Liberal Democrats, 22% think the Conservatives will win an overall majority and 11% expect to see another coalition between the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats.

In terms of party leaders, David Cameron's personal ratings remained largely unchanged from last week (36% (-1)/58%), Ed Miliband has seen a slight rise (34% (+3)/55% (-2) ), Nick Clegg's are completely unchanged (22%/69%) and Nigel Farage's have also risen somewhat (38% (+4)/34% (-1) ). 32% prefer Cameron as PM, 28% Miliband, 8% Clegg and 7% Farage.

April 6th 2015:

BBC News

Today, the Prime Minister went to Buckingham Palace. When he returned, he formally announced that parliament will be dissolved and that a general election will take place on May 7th.



April 9th 2015:

The Daily Telegraph

Tories hint of a negative campaign; Labour to focus on public services; 'vast achievements in government' to be centrepiece of Liberal Democrats' campaign, UKIP to 'hit home' on the EU and immigration.

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April 10th 2015

Daily Mirror

"An electoral revolution is on the way" says Farage



Speaking to us in Buckingham, the constituency in which he's once again challenging Speaker John Bercow, Nigel Farage senses an "electoral revolution".

"We've shocked the three parties in local elections, by-elections and European elections over the course of this parliament, and I am confident that we will do so once again in a few weeks' time. Millions of people, white, black, young, old, rich, poor, are going to vote for us. Never has a so-called fourth party dealt such a huge dent to the political establishment. The British people are fed up of the relentless lies and corruption, both in Brussels and Westminster. I think the 2015 general election will go down as the most transformational since the 1920s."

A recent poll conducted by Survation in Buckingham shows Mr. Farage trailing Mr. Bercow by 7% - 46% to 39%. This would be a dramatic improvement on his performance there in 2010, where (after narrowly escaping an horrific plane crash) he came third with 17% of the vote. "Oh, well, Speaker Bercow. What can you say about him? It's amazing how a single man can represent everything wrong about the modern political elite, and with so little effort too."

April 11th 2015

BBC

Dimbleby looks ahead to his final election night



After 40 years of anchoring British election night programmes on the BBC (beginning with the 1975 referendum on the European Economic Community), the 2015 general election will be Dimbleby's last before retirement. "It's sad in a way, but a relief in another. Last time was difficult for all of us. We were on the air almost non-stop for 18 hours. Certainly a lot of caffeine was consumed!" Mr. Dimbleby is sure of surprises, and not just from the election results either. "I don't want to spoil much, but new features will be introduced and the technology is going to be more sophisticated than ever. Jeremy Vine will have a lot of work on his hands." But he can reveal that the Rick Wakeman theme tune "Arthur" will be returning on May 7th after an absence in 2010. "We all love that. It always sends a chill down our spines when it's played over the opening titles". Mr. Dimbleby is also retiring from the flagship political panel show Question Time after the current series ends. "The last day will be very emotional I imagine. So many memories. The most challenging programme was undoubtedly the one with Nick Griffin (leader of the British National Party). Never has our dear old late evening show gotten so much national and international attention."

The BBC's Decision 2015 programme begins at 9:55PM on May 7th. David Dimbleby will be joined in the studio by the BBC's political editor Nick Robinson, Jeremy Paxman, Jeremy Vine, Emily Maitlis, the President of YouGov Peter Kellner and others.

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April 14th 2015

The Independent

The Battle for Norwich South



One of the most closely-watched local contests is Norwich South. The Labour Party's candidate Stephen Fry is hoping to overturn Lib Dem MP Stephen Wright's majority of 310. Aside from being a national household name, Fry is seen as a strong candidate due to his connections with the city; he was educated at City College Norwich and is a passionate supporter of Norwich City FC. His campaign so far has been buoyant - he's even employed the John Major soapbox tactic. Local Labour activists say they are confident of an overwhelming victory.

April 15th 2015

The Daily Mail

You simply cannot trust Labour, says Cameron



The Prime Minister had this to say in Bristol:

"When Labour was rightly removed from office five years ago, Britain was suffering from its worst recession, highest deficit and highest unemployment rate in decades. Five years on, growth has returned and the deficit and unemployment rate is falling. Ed Miliband wants you to believe that another Labour government would be economically competent. Don't believe his lies. Labour took a strong economy in 1997 and promptly ruined it. He also wants you to believe that another Labour government would have sensible rules on immigration. That's another lie. The previous Labour government alienated millions of its own voters by letting immigration rise to unprecedented levels, which put much strain on our valued public services. Only a Conservative government can continue the recovery."

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April 17th 2015

The Guardian

Miliband promises a review of the electoral system if Labour forms a government



In an interview on The Andrew Marr Show, Ed Miliband was asked if electoral reform was high on his party's agenda. "We'll certainly look into it" he said. "Our current electoral system has many flaws." But he stressed that "getting Britain's public services working again and getting people back to work" would be the top priorities of a Labour government.

April 18th 2015

UK Polling Report

UKIP support showing signs of ebbing away

ICM's latest voting intentions are CON 33% (+1), LAB 37% (nc), LDEM 13% (nc), UKIP 8% (-2). The 8% for UKIP is their lowest share with ICM since 2013. It's in line with YouGov's recent daily polls that also show UKIP falling into single digits.

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April 21st 2015

The Daily Telegraph

Carol Thatcher: Vote UKIP



Carol Thatcher came out in support of the United Kingdom Independence Party today. The daughter of the late ex-PM said that "Mr. Farage and his party are the ones who can best continue the work of my mother".

April 22nd 2015

BBC

US politician thinks debate could lead to another round of 'Cleggmania'



Howard Dean, the former Governor of Vermont, Chairman of the Democratic National Committee and candidate for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2004, said that April 30th's debate between the leaders could lead to a surge in support for the Liberal Democrats. "Nick Clegg has done a good job at keeping the Conservatives at bay in government, and I hope the British people will recognise that". Mr. Dean made a similar prediction in 2010, but although Mr. Clegg's party did gain support in the polls after the first debate, it didn't translate into extra seats.

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The Daily Record

Scottish National Party faces a tough election



Having failed to break-up the Union last year, the SNP faces its most challenging election in several years. The polls show the SNP battling for second place with the Tories in the Westminster voting intentions, and First Minster Sturgeon's party also trails badly in next year's battle for Holyrood.

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April 25th 2015

The Daily Express

Osborne pelted with tomatoes in Derby



During a visit to Derby, the Chancellor, as he talked to the locals in the town centre, was suddenly covered in tomatoes thrown by local BNP activists. "Britain for the British" one of them shouted. The Chancellor responded in a good-natured way - "They must have bought them from that fruit and veg stall around the corner. I tried one of their apples earlier and it was delicious. I would imagine the tomatoes are too. Seems like a waste of good food to me."

April 26th 2015

UK Polling Report

With 11 days to go, Labour retains its lead

Today's YouGov/Sunday Times poll is now up. Voting intentions are CON 32% (nc), LAB 36% (+1), LDEM 14% (nc), UKIP 8% (nc). That would be a swing of 5.5% to Labour, which would almost certainly give them a workable majority.

The voters haven't been impressed with the campaign. 12% said it's been very interesting, 21% fairly interesting, 33% not very interesting and 26% boring. 64% said they are absolutely certain to vote. It should be noted that around 70% were saying the same thing in 2010, but turnout ended up being around 65%. The lowest turnout since WWII was 2001's derisory 59%, so we could be looking at that again.

On the subject of the upcoming debate, 21% said they will definitely watch it, 24% probably will, 18% probably not and 31% definitely not. 34% expect Cameron to perform the best, 18% Miliband, 11% Clegg and 10% Farage.

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April 30th 2015

Daily Telegraph

Leaders clash in only televised debate



Mr. Cameron, Mr. Miliband, Mr. Clegg and Mr. Farage made their differences clear to a BBC television audience of 12 million during the sole televised debate of the 2015 general election campaign. Mr. Farage was seen as the dominant force over the 90 minutes.  He regularly attacked the other leaders as being "weak", "untrustworthy" and "in it for themselves" and concluded his display by promising a "new dawn" for the United Kingdom.

May 1st 2015

UK Polling Report

YouGov: Farage widely seen as debate winner; UKIP surge



Most debate watchers believe that Nigel Farage was the victor, according to YouGov. 51% said Farage came out on top, 14% Miliband, 12% Cameron, 8% Clegg and 15% said there was no overall winner. YouGov have also conducted a voting intention poll (among the general electorate). The figures are CON 26% (-6), LAB 32% (-4), LDEM 13% (-1), UKIP 22% (+14). Obviously, this is going to cause much excitement of all kinds, but I would advise caution until some more polls are released; the next ICM is due out later today.

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Wow, you tell that this was written a while ago eh?

Anyway, I actually now have the required software again to do a detailed election night thing, so an update may well come shortly...

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May 4th 2015

The Guardian

Hundreds of thousands take part in anti-UKIP demo in central London



Earlier today, huge numbers of people, with estimates ranging from 150,000-300,000, marched in one of the biggest British political protests seen in recent years. Among the prominent speakers present were Jeremy Corbyn, Labour MP for Islington North, Kenneth Clarke, high-profile Tory and former Chancellor and leadership contender as well as a number of celebrities including the Norwich South Labour candidate Stephen Fry and the singer-songwriter Billy Bragg. With polls released during the weekend showing UKIP in either first or second place, the sudden revitalisation of the right-wing Eurosceptic party following Mr. Farage's strong debate performance last week has triggered a strong reaction. Despite the obvious passions, only a handful of arrests have been made and the police have described the march as being 'relatively peaceful'.

UK Polling Report

UKIP now in first place with YouGov and their surge triggers surge in interest

YouGov's daily tracker tonight shows CON 21% (-2), LAB 27% (-2), LDEM 12% (+1), UKIP 32% (+4). So on these figures the UKIP surge continues. What is also interesting are the changes in YouGov's "certainty to vote" tracker. This was last measured in the middle of last week and it showed 67% as being 10/10 certain to vote. Since then, that number has risen to 84%, pointing to quite possibly the highest turnout since the Second World War, if not ever.

What should worry the opponents of UKIP is the fact that there is really no time to burst their bubble. Nick Clegg's bubble was burst in 2010 due to his strong first debate performance being three weeks prior to election day. Unless a major scandal breaks within the next 72 hours then it is hard to see how they won't achieve an historic result on Thursday.

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Note: Try not to take this TL too seriously


May 6th 2015

BBC News

Anti-UKIP rallies held across the country

On the final day of the general election campaign, around three million people are thought to have taken part in rallies opposing the UK Independence Party. Cities where rallies were held included Glasgow, Manchester, Liverpool, Cardiff, Birmingham and London. The biggest of all took place in central London, where at least half a million marched - even more than in the previous major rally on Monday. Speakers there included the Prime Minister David Cameron, Deputy Prime Minister and Liberal Democrats leader Nick Clegg, Labour leader Ed Miliband, broadcaster Sir David Attenborough, Virgin founder Sir Richard Branson and the actress Dame Judi Dench. Meanwhile, marchers in Glasgow heard current First Minister Nicola Sturgeon and former First Minister Alex Salmond give passionate speeches urging a vote for the Scottish National Party in order to 'save Scotland from xenophobia'.

Mr. Farage spent the day campaigning in Buckingham, where he is hoping to topple the Speaker of the House of Commons, John Bercow. He dismissed the mass rallies as 'a rabble of left-wing extremists and cowardly establishment figures'.

UK Polling Report

Final polls suggest an unpredictable result

ICM: Con 23, Lab 26, UKIP 29, LD 11
YouGov: Con 22, Lab 28, UKIP 30, LD 10
Ipsos-MORI: Con 22, Lab 24, UKIP 33, LD 12
Survation: Con 19, Lab 28, UKIP 26, LD 15
Populus: Con 24, Lab 30, UKIP 22, LD 13
Ashcroft: Con 24, Lab 29, UKIP 25, LD 12
ComRes: Con 26, Lab 25, UKIP 28, LD 10

YouGov's leaders well/badly ratings are as follows: Cameron 32% well, 64% badly, Miliband - 35% well, 59% badly, Farage - 50% well, 41% badly, Clegg 31% well, 60% badly. YouGov's 'likelihood to vote' tracker shows 89% as being 10/10 certain to vote.

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May 7th 2015:

BBC One - 9:55PM

Opening titles roll





David Dimbleby: Hello and welcome to the BBC's election centre. Four minutes from now, when Big Ben strikes 10, we can legally reveal the contents of this, our exit poll. For now though our lips are sealed - tantalizing. This election must count as one of the most fascinating and unpredictable ever. At its outset it looked set to be a battle between the three main established parties. But then we witnessed that unbelievable televised debate in which UKIP's Nigel Farage apparently sweeped the others away. If the polls are to be believed, then they look set to, in the words of Mr. Farage himself, cause a political earthquake.

I course I can't do it all by myself, so we have an excellent team of experts, including our Political Editor Nick Robinson, YouGov's Peter Kellner, as well as Andrew Marr and Laura Kuenssberg. Jeremy Vine will have the challenging task of showing you a breakdown of the results with his magical graphics throughout the night, and Emily Maitlis will be bringing you raw figures on her touch screen. Andrew Neil will be interviewing the winners and the losers of this night up there on the balcony, and we have our top reporters at dozens of counts across the country, including those of the main party leaders.

And now, in just a moment we will be bringing you our exit poll. This is not an opinion poll, remember, as instead of asking voters how they would vote, we have asked them how they voted. We went to a key 140 polling stations to find this out, and we hope the voters have been telling us the truth...


And we are saying that Labour is the largest party.

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DD: So those figures are truly fascinating. What do you make of them Nick?

NR: Well, if, if these are correct, then this is a watershed election. UKIP's only MP prior to tonight was the by-election winner Douglas Carswell, and they have never won a seat in a general election. Nigel Farage will be in a state of shock and wonder, wonder as to what will happen next. So too will David Cameron and Ed Miliband, the former who, in these figures, has suffered a bad defeat. But look at the Liberal Democrats - eight seats. You'd have to go back nearly half a century to find the centre party at that level. Also, the SNP will be delighted if they take 30 of Scotland's 59 seats, as it is a bare majority of them. That would certainly exceed expectations - their own target throughout this campaign has been 20 seats. An effect of the UKIP surge in the rest of the United Kingdom? Who knows. But this still, still is only an exit poll. And they have been wrong before.

An hour later...

DD: Mr. Osborne, I have to interrupt you as Houghton and Sunderland South is about to declare.

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DD: Emily, tell us more.

EM: Well David, the outcome is of little surprise but the details are extraordinary. For UKIP to come within three thousand or so of taking this historically safe Labour seat is quite an achievement. All three of the main Westminster parties have taken a big hit in their percentages and the Greens have managed to beat the Lib Dems into fourth place. The swing from Labour to UKIP here was 21%, and the turnout has risen from 55% to 65%, suggesting that we are in for the highest turnout in decades.