Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

[Zenobiyl]

Looking good so far, though the only race I’m really sweating is IL Supreme Court

[Zenobiyl]

Looking good so far, though the only race I’m really sweating is IL Supreme Court

Illinois is interesting because there are a lot of dominoes that all fall at once given the abundance of Biden + 10-15 seats, the state Supreme Court, and a few row offices. The GOP may also have a very very small chance at at least 1 chamber of the legislature which would probably fall at around the same time.

Given Biden is unpopular in Illinois I wondered why Pritzker was coasting in the opinion polls.

We blundered in giving the nom to a hard-right candidate

[Zenobiyl]

I’m partly disappointed the GOP blew a golden opportunity of a year, but also relieved this chaotic campaign season is finally over.

[Zenobiyl]

Is it bad that I can find Pritzker's +10.7 margin.... underwhelming? lol IDK, Bailey was *SO* toxic that I thought maybe even close to 15% was possible.

One really has to wonder how a better GOP nominee would have performed

[Zenobiyl]

Donald Trump will not be the GOP Nominee in 2024: Reason, the State Parties will stop him. They will likely open up their Primaries & Caucuses to Independents. DeSantis won Indies in FL 53-45.

Trumps favorables with Independents are in the Toilet.

Trump will get double crossed from multiple Sides. Moderate Republicans like Brian Fitzpatrick might even coax Garland to charge Trump so the Republican Party can get rid of him.

The entire establishment tried to stop him in 2016 but utterly failed because the voters chose him anyway. (Not by a landslide, but by enough.) I strongly suspect the same thing will happen again in 2024.

The establishment will be united and ready this time

[Zenobiyl]

I expect a Casey v McCormick race to end in like fashion but with Shapiro popular Casey won't lose he will win by 6 that 17 like he won in 2018

Meaning, Brown, Tester and Manchin if PA is that close  gonna have tough races and any one of them can lose but they can win by Johnson Numbers

Brown winning by a landslide is preposterous

You’re bearish on Brown’s chances?

Tossup → Safe R