Based on 2022 results and the recent bipartisan efforts in the state to legislate on moral issues(porn verification, social media parental consent etc), I honestly expect Biden's margin in Louisiana to completely collapse. It won't likely be enough to save Letlow but I'd be wary of assuming Biden will hold up in this state(and the south in general)
It's Louisiana. If the district is over 50% black (or includes New Orleans), the Democrat will win, simple as that. For the same reasons that Democrats from the Deep South can be idiosyncratic on some of these issues, it is unlikely that Democrats will collapse, particularly on the congressional level.
I do think my left-of-center friends should prepare for the possibility that a conservadem wins the new seat, but all the takes about a surprise R victory in the event of a second VRA district are doom/cope.
There are large parts of this district where whites are more Republican than blacks are Democratic.
