Do you think Obama will get the high black turnout in '12 that he did last year?

[pbrower2a]

In the long run, African-Americans will turn out at the same rate as Whites (I think a Pew study even showed a higher turnout among them than Whites in 2008).

Obama may get a slightly lower share (~92%) among them in 2012, but could get a higher share of Whites, especially in the Upper South (MO, IN, KY, OH, WV, VA, NC and maybe Florida or even the Deep South) if the economy is growing fast by Mid-2012 and Obama had a good term overall. Let's say he wins the General Election with a 10-point margin, I could see 45% of Whites voting for him.

45% of the white vote in the South? That would give Obama at the least an Eisenhower-scale landslide, something like this:

That's hard to believe.

[pbrower2a]

45% of whites in Alabama is much different than 45% of whites in NJ or NH.

Obama would have lost some states had he not gotten 45% of the white vote -- including VA and NC. Missouri, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida look as if Obama got 45% of the white vote.

Should the Republicans not hold onto the poor white vote in 2012, then they can expect a very nasty landslide. That is the only significant constituency that has shown any potential for growth. Let's remember: Obama can do nothing for poor blacks and Hispanics (whom he wants to help) without doing much the same for poor whites -- culture be damned.

[pbrower2a]

Yeah, but those people are Republicans, they aren't going to all of a sudden vote for Obama. The only place he can improve is among white independents.

They will vote for Huckabee; culture matters.

[pbrower2a]

Yeah, but those people are Republicans, they aren't going to all of a sudden vote for Obama. The only place he can improve is among white independents.

Southern poor whites will vote for Mike Huckabee in a large percentage  if he gets the nomination of the Republican Party. Other than that, they aren't at all reliable GOP voters in 2012.

Since 1968, the southeastern US has been the most capricious in its voting. It is the only region in which any third-Party candidates have gotten any electoral votes. It voted for Carter in 1976 when the rest of America voted for Ford; it split about 50-50 for Clinton in 1992 and 1996. Three former-Confederate states voted for him in 2008.

The Republican identity of Southern voters isn't so dyed-in-the-wool as it might seem. Arkansas has two Democratic Senators.