Quinnipiac Wisconsin - Biden +6

[pbrower2a]

A Trump collapse is obviously more likely than a Biden collapse at this point because trump is more erratic. President Biden doesn't have to defend himself in a court of law, and nothing good happens to one's image even if one is acquitted of all charges (think of the late OJ Simpson). Until the proceedings are complete I must assume the likelihood of an acquittal on all charges.

The first evidence of a collapse is seeming outliers, and Biden at 50 and ahead by 6 in a state in which he barely scraped by in 2020 can look like an outlier.

It is impossible to see Biden winning the tipping-point state of 2020 with Trump winning the electoral vote. Unless the incumbent is on track to wipe the floor with a weak challenger like Mondale in 1984 we don't see such so early.