September 18-19, 2020 survey of 896 battleground voters in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin:
53% Biden
43% Trump
In the 2016 presidential election, did you vote for Republican Donald Trump, Democrat Hillary Clinton, someone else, or did you not vote in the election?
45% Trump
45% Clinton
10% Someone else/don't remember/didn't vote
https://www.climatepower2020.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/23/2020/09/Battleground-Survey-Results.pdf
Specific state results would be even more desirable, but to the extent that PPP data is reliable, the only way in which this split is possible with Trump winning is if Biden is winning Colorado, Michigan, and Pennsylvania with 80% or so of the vote and the others all end up going to Trump by bare pluralities. Such is not happening. It is more likely that Biden wins every state in this list than that he loses everything but Colorado, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Any one of the other six will be enough.
Figure that many of those who did not vote in 2016 were too young to vote in 2016. Some of those people may have not yet reached their fourteenth birthday as of November 3, 2012. (Those of course would have been born in September, October, and the first three days of November 2004, in case you are shocked. That is a small number of voters in that category, and it would not swing the election in any state. But those born between late 2000 and early November 2004 could be enough.
Such a number signifies a collapse of non-fanatical support of Donald Trump. There is more to this trend than any age wave.
The Trump bid for re-election, if you want an analogy from the world of the bloody fang, is in the grasp of the death roll of an alligator.
